Multivariate meta analysis with potentially correlated marketing study results

A univariate meta analysis is often used to summarize various study results on the same research hypothesis concerning an effect of interest. When several marketing studies produce sets of more than one effect, multivariate meta analysis can be conducted. Problems one might have with such a multivariate meta analysis are: (1) Several effects estimated in one model could be correlated to each other but their correlation is seldom published and (2) an estimated effect in one model could be correlated to the corresponding effect in the other model due to similar model specification or the data set partly shared, but their correlation is not known. Situations like (2) happen often in military recruiting studies. We employ a Monte‐Carlo simulation to evaluate how neglecting such potential correlation affects the result of a multivariate meta analysis in terms of Type I, Type II errors, and MSE. Simulation results indicate that such effect is not significant. What matters is rather the size of the variance component due to random error in multivariate effects. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 500–510, 2000.     

军事地形学课程建设与改革

军事地形学是一门军校学员必修的军事基础课程,是重点课程建设之一。课程建设水平的高低,直接关系到院校的生存与发展。从规范课程教学文件、优化教学保障、加强教员队伍建设、深化教学改革等几个方面,阐述了军事地形学课程建设的发展状况,并对该课程建设向更高层次迈进提出了思路。     

适应4+1人才培养模式,强化综合训练教学环节

就综合院校着眼新军事斗争准备需要,强化实践性教学环节,运用综合训练手段全面培养和提高学员军事素质,进行了初步的探索与思考,主要从组织综合训练对学员素质培养的重要作用,组织综合训练的基本原则及对如何搞好综合训练的新构想等3个方面的内容进行了探讨。     

我院军事装备学学科研究方向探讨

从特色、学术地位、作用和意义等方面探讨了我院军事装备学学科的4大研究方向:装备作战仿真、装备发展研究、装备管理研究和装备保障研究,并分析了它们之间的关系。     

The Clausewitzian fallacy of absolute war

Clausewitz was much preoccupied with the apparent contradiction between real and absolute war. Why did war in history so rarely exhibit the extremes of violence and energy implied in the pure concept of war? Clausewitz’s commentators have usually followed him in thinking that this was a genuine problem in need of a solution, but I want to question that view. I will argue that Clausewitz did not have a coherent philosophy of absolute war, and therefore the contradiction he posited between real and absolute war was equally meaningless – as, too, was his effort to resolve it by claiming that some real wars approached or even attained the absolute form of war. The real problem was not the opposition of real and absolute war, but the self-contradictory theory of absolute war.     

面向实体的军事仿真规则提取方法研究

针对目前军事仿真系统开发中存在的军事仿真规则提取不完备的问题,在充分发挥ECA规则提取方法优势的基础上,提出了面向实体的军事仿真规则提取方法。该方法以实体状态变迁为中心,运用系统论方法,重点分析实体的环境、功能、行为、组元和结构状态,并将分析结果引入ECA规则。通过将该方法应用于装备抢修组实施抢修的规则提取中,验证了其对于提高规则的完备性与可信性具有较好的效果。     

军事云环境下基于动态博弈的资源调度方法

针对军事云环境下联合指挥资源调度优化问题,综合考虑了多部队任务需求,多目标优化,多部队资源竞争等约束条件,运用动态博弈理论及方法,建立并提出了一种基于完全信息扩展博弈的资源调度模型及方法,提高了资源调度效率,兼顾了多部队利益,增加了联合作战效益。最后通过实验验证了其有效性及准确性。     

基于噪声调相干扰寄生扩频的隐蔽信息传输

在常见的各种信息隐蔽传输方法中,宿主载体大多集中于图像、音频、视频等各类多媒体信源,而通过射频信号作为载体来实施隐蔽信息传输的技术手段十分缺乏。针对这一情况,提出了一种基于噪声调相干扰寄生扩频的隐蔽信息传输方法。在干扰机对雷达、通信等目标对象发射噪声压制干扰信号的同时,将需要传输的信息寄生调制于噪声干扰的相位分量,形成一种类扩频传输信号,并有效隐藏于大功率干扰信号之中实现传输。在接收端通过解扩处理而恢复出隐藏的调制分量,最后解调出其中所隐蔽承载的数字比特流。仿真试验结果显示了该方法的可行性与有效性,这对于电子对抗设备的综合一体化应用和隐蔽通信的实施提供了新的技术途径。     

影响指挥员军事决策的因素分析

现代高技术条件下的局部战争,军事活动的节奏明显加快,作战空间跨域扩展,战场态势复杂多变,尤其是当重大危机发生时,对军事决策的时效性提出了更高要求,指挥员必须能够及时、果断、有效、准确地定下作战决心。指挥员军事决策的有效性不仅受主观因素的影响,还受客观因素的影响。通过对影响因素的分析,提出提高指挥员军事决策能力的有效途径,为军队指挥人才培养提供合理建议。     

指挥信息系统领域建模研究

领域模型是指挥信息系统能够互操作和互理解的基础支撑。在指挥信息系统分析设计阶段,系统的领域模型建立得是否完整准确,直接决定了系统的体系能力设计是否完备,也直接决定了系统建设的成败。本文深入研究领域模型元概念、领域概念和应用概念的三层结构。在此基础上,构建包括网络通信层、信息服务层、共性应用支撑层、联合应用支撑层、应用系统层、安全保障系统和运维支撑系统的"五层两系统"指挥信息系统领域模型体系,为指挥信息系统分析设计提供方法和技术保障。