Reassessing private military and security company (PMSC) ‘competition‘ in civil war: lessons from Sierra Leone

ABSTRACT

This paper challenges recent claims that competitive market dynamics incentivize Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs) to fully commit to providing effective services, thereby reducing the duration of civil war. Our assessment of a most-likely case scenario for this argument – Sierra Leone – reveals four critical problems. First, there is rarely direct competition, even if numerous companies are present. Second, the presence of multiple PMSCs usually represents a collaboration among subsidiaries providing distinct services, often under the same corporate umbrella. Third, data aggregation obfuscates the overlap of PMSC presence, inflating the amount of perceived competition. Finally, we raise concerns regarding how quantitative analyses can conflate conflict intensity with conflict termination.     

At war with social theory: Instrumental and communicative action in US military doctrine during the War on Terror

As US counterinsurgency campaigns draw to a close, doctrine for asymmetric warfare written during the War on Terror has come under heavy criticism. While many have argued that this shift to ‘winning hearts and minds’ is evidence that the United States is taking humanitarianism and nation-building seriously, others argue that a wide gap exists between US counterinsurgency doctrine and the protection of civilians afflicted by conflict. In this article, I show that the latter is true by comparing theories of instrumental and communicative action to US doctrine for operational design, stability operations, and counterinsurgency. I argue that these texts treat the people as an object to be manipulated for the achievement of pre-determined self-interested strategic goals rather than members of a community that jointly designs operations to fulfill shared objectives. However, US doctrine does contain communicative elements that, if prioritized, would better support humanitarian and state-building objectives otherwise subordinated in the War on Terror.     

军事任务推演的时空模型与驱动机制

针对军事信息系统的作战任务推演需求,提出了一种基于时空事件序列的、较为完备的高效任务推演方法。论述了基于层次化分解的任务表达机制与实体化策略;针对保障数据定制问题提出了面向任务的时空数据应用模型,以任务最小需求为准则对一体化时空数据集进行多维筛选,有效降低数据的冗余度;详细讨论了时空事件序列模型的定义及其在军事任务推演中的数据驱动模式;结合具体仿真实例进行了应用探讨。原型系统的实现证明了该思路的有效性和可行性。     

基于OWA算子的军队院校物资采购招投标管理研究

针对军队院校物资采购招投标管理问题,文中分析了军队院校物资采购招投标的特点,研究了基于合同的谈判机制;针对评标过程中,其所评指标中存在定量指标和定性指标的特点,提出一种基于OWA算子和语言OWA算子的综合多属性群决策方法,实现了招投标管理中的评标、定标。最后,通过实例说明了该方法的有效性及合理性。     

装备采购理论体系研究

为加强装备采购理论研究的顶层设计,促进装备采购理论发展,在分析装备采购理论体系研究必要性的基础上,运用纵横统一的方法,对装备采购理论体系框架进行了构建,对装备采购理论研究方向进行了规划。     

Trading coups for civil war

This paper investigates civil conflict as a product of the survival strategies of African leaders. Specifically, the paper offers a theory of risk substitution that predicts coup-fearing leaders will undermine the military effectiveness of the state when making an effort to extend their own tenure. While ‘coup-proofing’ practices have often been noted as contributors to political survival, considerably less attention has been paid to the influence of these strategies on other forms of conflict. Utilising data from a number of cross-national datasets, the analyses show that having a higher number of ‘coup-proofing’ counterweights significantly worsens a state's civil conflict prospects. A brief consideration of multiple episodes of conflict further suggests that in addition to coup-proofing undermining the counterinsurgency capacity of the state, some leaders are simply indifferent to – or can even potentially benefit from – the existence of an insurgency.     

Factors influencing military recruitment in South Africa: the voices of Cape Town high school learners

This research sets out to establish how the youth in South Africa view military service, and what factors affect the ability of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) to attract suitable recruits to staff its modern, technologically advanced military. Due to high levels of youth unemployment, South Africa has sufficient persons volunteering for military service. The problem lies with recruiting sufficient quality personnel with the right profile and abilities. To establish what affects enlistment, focus group discussions were conducted with learners from eight schools to determine what influences their career choices, what deters them from or attracts them to military service, their perception of the military profession, their knowledge of the military, and the influence of factors such as race and gender. The conclusion is reached that the SANDF is not considered an employer of choice due to poor service conditions, a decline in the prestige of the military, unfavourable aspects associated with military culture, a growing ‘knowledge gap’ and disconnect between the military and South African society, the estrangement of certain race groups, and the masculine nature of the military. These aspects need to be addressed if the SANDF wishes to attract learners with good academic credentials.     

也谈军事训练文化

文章研究军事训练文化作为引导、教化和推动军事训练向能力聚焦,向实战靠拢的精神财富,既有对过去训练实践的凝练、对当前训练实践的反思,也有对未来训练实践的探索,对军队训练活动具有不可替代的指导意义。提出,需要在理解基本蕴涵,把握共性特点、认清表现形式和明确发展路径的基础上廓清相关理论认识。     

美国2014年《四年防务评估报告》特点

2014年3月4日,美国国防部向国会提交了2014年版《四年防务评估报告》和《2015财年国防预算报告》。《四年防务评估报告》更新了再平衡战略,为美军建设提出了优先发展方向,要求美军联合部队向“更小型化”转型,以满足未来军事行动需求。     

新征程军事指导理论创新发展

十八大以来,习主席关于国防和军队建设重要论述,体现了我党军事指导理论的创新发展,既是习主席治国理政思想在军事领域的重要体现,也处处体现了辩证唯物主义的思想方法。学习贯彻习主席关于国防和军队建设的重要论述,必须牢牢把握其思想精华,把意志和力量凝聚到实现中国梦强军梦上来,推动国防和军队建设的创新发展。