Multivariate meta analysis with potentially correlated marketing study results

A univariate meta analysis is often used to summarize various study results on the same research hypothesis concerning an effect of interest. When several marketing studies produce sets of more than one effect, multivariate meta analysis can be conducted. Problems one might have with such a multivariate meta analysis are: (1) Several effects estimated in one model could be correlated to each other but their correlation is seldom published and (2) an estimated effect in one model could be correlated to the corresponding effect in the other model due to similar model specification or the data set partly shared, but their correlation is not known. Situations like (2) happen often in military recruiting studies. We employ a Monte‐Carlo simulation to evaluate how neglecting such potential correlation affects the result of a multivariate meta analysis in terms of Type I, Type II errors, and MSE. Simulation results indicate that such effect is not significant. What matters is rather the size of the variance component due to random error in multivariate effects. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 500–510, 2000.     

Inventory transshipment game with limited supply: Trap or treat

Inventory transshipment is generally shown to be beneficial to retailers by matching their excess demand with surplus inventory. We investigate an inventory transshipment game with two newsvendor-type retailers under limited total supply and check whether the retailers are better off than the case without transshipment. We derive the ordering strategies for the retailers and show that unlike the unlimited supply case, a pure Nash equilibrium only exists under certain conditions. Furthermore, contrary to the conventional wisdom, we show that inventory transshipment may not always benefit both retailers. Although one of the retailers is guaranteed to be better off, the other could be worse off. The decision criteria are then provided for the retailers to determine if they will benefit from the exercise of inventory transshipment. Numerical study indicates that the carefully chosen transshipment prices play an important role in keeping inventory transshipment beneficial to both retailers. Subsequently, a coordinating mechanism is designed for the retailers to negotiate transshipment prices that maximize the total profit of the two retailers while keeping each of them in a beneficial position.     

军事地形学课程建设与改革

军事地形学是一门军校学员必修的军事基础课程,是重点课程建设之一。课程建设水平的高低,直接关系到院校的生存与发展。从规范课程教学文件、优化教学保障、加强教员队伍建设、深化教学改革等几个方面,阐述了军事地形学课程建设的发展状况,并对该课程建设向更高层次迈进提出了思路。     

适应4+1人才培养模式,强化综合训练教学环节

就综合院校着眼新军事斗争准备需要,强化实践性教学环节,运用综合训练手段全面培养和提高学员军事素质,进行了初步的探索与思考,主要从组织综合训练对学员素质培养的重要作用,组织综合训练的基本原则及对如何搞好综合训练的新构想等3个方面的内容进行了探讨。     

我院军事装备学学科研究方向探讨

从特色、学术地位、作用和意义等方面探讨了我院军事装备学学科的4大研究方向:装备作战仿真、装备发展研究、装备管理研究和装备保障研究,并分析了它们之间的关系。     

The Clausewitzian fallacy of absolute war

Clausewitz was much preoccupied with the apparent contradiction between real and absolute war. Why did war in history so rarely exhibit the extremes of violence and energy implied in the pure concept of war? Clausewitz’s commentators have usually followed him in thinking that this was a genuine problem in need of a solution, but I want to question that view. I will argue that Clausewitz did not have a coherent philosophy of absolute war, and therefore the contradiction he posited between real and absolute war was equally meaningless – as, too, was his effort to resolve it by claiming that some real wars approached or even attained the absolute form of war. The real problem was not the opposition of real and absolute war, but the self-contradictory theory of absolute war.     

面向实体的军事仿真规则提取方法研究

针对目前军事仿真系统开发中存在的军事仿真规则提取不完备的问题,在充分发挥ECA规则提取方法优势的基础上,提出了面向实体的军事仿真规则提取方法。该方法以实体状态变迁为中心,运用系统论方法,重点分析实体的环境、功能、行为、组元和结构状态,并将分析结果引入ECA规则。通过将该方法应用于装备抢修组实施抢修的规则提取中,验证了其对于提高规则的完备性与可信性具有较好的效果。     

军事云环境下基于动态博弈的资源调度方法

针对军事云环境下联合指挥资源调度优化问题,综合考虑了多部队任务需求,多目标优化,多部队资源竞争等约束条件,运用动态博弈理论及方法,建立并提出了一种基于完全信息扩展博弈的资源调度模型及方法,提高了资源调度效率,兼顾了多部队利益,增加了联合作战效益。最后通过实验验证了其有效性及准确性。     

不确定条件下装备器材供应网规划模型

装备器材供应网是装备器材供应保障工作的重要基石,其规划问题是我军装备器材保障过程的重要战略决策之一。针对节点、边和需求的不确定性,对不确定条件下由多个区域供应子网构成的装备器材供应网的规划问题展开研究。针对问题的特点,用区间分析理论对供应网规划中的不确定性因素进行度量和运算,得到不确定性规划模型,通过区间运算转化,将不确定性模型转化为确定性混合整数规划模型,并设计采用基于禁忌搜索算法的两阶段算法进行求解,分别得到了不同参数设置下的模型求解结果,并将所用算法与模糊规划和随机规划算法的求解结果进行了比较分析。实例分析结果表明所建立的模型和算法具有较强的实用性。     

影响指挥员军事决策的因素分析

现代高技术条件下的局部战争,军事活动的节奏明显加快,作战空间跨域扩展,战场态势复杂多变,尤其是当重大危机发生时,对军事决策的时效性提出了更高要求,指挥员必须能够及时、果断、有效、准确地定下作战决心。指挥员军事决策的有效性不仅受主观因素的影响,还受客观因素的影响。通过对影响因素的分析,提出提高指挥员军事决策能力的有效途径,为军队指挥人才培养提供合理建议。