Measuring defense conversion in Russian industry

This paper develops and implements a methodology for quantifying defense conversion in Russian manufacturing in the early 1990s. A two‐sector, three‐good model is employed to analyze the flows of resources from military to non‐military uses and applied to firm‐level survey data under alternative definitions of military production and the MIC. An aggregation framework is constructed to estimate the total quantity and change in Russian military production, the latter decomposed into intrafirm and intersectoral resource reallocation and overall industrial decline. Although there is evidence of substantial decline in military production, the data show little reallocation to productive civilian uses, neither within the MIC nor to other manufacturing sectors.     

What determines military allocations in Africa: Theoretical and empirical investigations

This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the determinants of military spending in Africa. It specifies a formal model and uses time‐series and cross‐sectional estimations to ascertain the reasons behind variations in military allocations across and within 40 African countries during 1960–1991. The differences in military expenditures appear to reflect a complex of economic, political, and strategic factors at both national and international levels. Strategic considerations are, however, found to be the most important factors in most African countries.     

Incomplete contracting and target‐cost pricing

Procurement of advanced technology defence equipment requires appropriate contractual arrangements to achieve efficient R&D investments. This paper analyses the optimality of target‐cost and fixed price contracts and shows that target‐cost pricing can achieve a first best where both fixed‐price contracts and cost reimbursement fail to do so. The main message of this paper is that in incomplete contracting optimality may sometimes be achieved by arrangements which combine several formulae which, individually, would fail to achieve efficiency.     

Country survey IV: Pakistan

This paper examines the role of the military in Pakistan, particularly in regard to civil‐military relations and defence industrialisation. Pakistan's military expenditure is relatively high, but apart from investment multipliers, little of this spending filters through to the civil sector. Pakistan's defence‐industrial strategy centres on rebuild and Chinese technological collaboration. However, while this ‘capital‐saving’ approach has merit, the strategy has thus far failed to stimulate broader civil development linkages. A conclusion of this paper is that Pakistan is failing to maximise the strategic dual‐use benefits of integrating civil‐military activity.     

UK firms’ experience and perceptions of defence offsets: Survey results 1

Offsets are a growing feature of international trade in defence equipment. This article assesses the economics of offsets and outlines UK offsets policy. There is a lack of empirical work in the field and the article presents the results of a survey of UK firms’ experience of their involvement in offsets against UK imports of defence equipment. There is also a case study of the AWACS offset programme and an evaluation of policy implications.     

BUTTER,GUNS AND ICE‐CREAM THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA

This paper is intended to complement the existing literature on civil wars. First, it presents a simple theoretical model of conflict that defines a two‐sector economy. In a contested sector, two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice‐cream’. Following the theoretical insights the empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between civil wars and different sectors of the economy. In particular, a panel probit specification shows that the incidence of a civil war decreases in the size of manufacturing sector.     

An informal framework to aid the analysis and design of military posture

The design of military posture is an exercise in confronting potential enemies’ capabilities within the context of geographic, technological, temporal, political and economic constraints. No formal model is capable of encapsulating the essentials of so complex an environment for closed or simulated analysis, but it is useful to have an informal framework within which to reason interactively within these dimensions.

This paper presents such a scaffolding, patterned on the notion of a military posture as the output of an economic process whose structure reflects important determinants of the characteristics and extents of weaponry and expenditures that are appropriate to the environment within the feasibility set determined by the constraints. The analysis remains at an abstract level, but it does highlight the important shifts toward preparation for littoral warfare, greater reliance on reserve rather than active forces, and necessary changes in missions among military departments.     

油料洞库主罐室地震作用破坏机理

油料洞库担负着我国未来石油储备的重要任务,为深入研究油料洞库在地震作用下的响应规律,运用FLAC3D软件,采用动力时程法对油料洞库的简化模型进行数值模拟分析。从不同围岩级别、不同埋深、不同地震烈度3个方面分析地震作用时水平峰值位移和最大拉应力峰值的变化规律。结果表明：随着围岩级别从Ⅲ级到Ⅰ级的变化以及埋深的增加,油料洞库的抗震性能逐渐提高;无论何种工况,最大拉应力峰值均发生在主罐室与支通道交接的墙角处;9度地震时各监测点水平峰值位移大幅增加,塑性区已经贯通,故在油料洞库选址时应尽可能避开可能发生9度及以上地震的地区。     

多无人机梯次攻击航路规划

为了解决多无人机协同攻击航路规划问题,基于一种雷达威胁等效方法,以及无人机在不同姿态下雷达散射截面RCS(Radar Cross-Section)值随之改变的特性,结合多机作战战术思想,提出了一种多无人机梯次协同攻击同一目标的方法,并利用Dijkstra算法进行多无人机航路规划.仿真结果表明,该方法具有更高的应用价值.     

“现代教育技术”课程的思政实践理念与路径探讨

“课程思政”是高等学校实现立德树人目标的重要举措,也是“三全育人”的重要环节,目前国内高校普遍开展课程思政建设的探索和实践,“现代教育技术”作为师范类专业一门重要的公共基础必修课程,不仅连接了教育理论与实践,也承担着师德养成和职业规范形成的重要任务,因此本文以《中小学教师职业道德规范》为核心,从教学内容、教学形式、教学活动、教学评价四个方面进行课程思政建设的路径探讨,以期通过课程学习,对师范类学生实现“润物细无声”的精神引领,同时也为其他师范类平台课程的思政建设提供有价值的参考。