具有节点失效的网络可靠度的信息交互算法

提出了一种用于计算具有节点失效的网络可靠度的新计算方法。该算法依据不交化代数及协同计算的思想,采用节点信息义互的方法直接获得网络的不交化最小路集。算法简便易行,具有分布计算的特点,为大型网络系统的可靠性度计算提供了一种新的途径。     

Disrupt and restraint: The evolution of cyber conflict and the implications for collective security

In the last decade, cyber conflict has become a main feature of international politics and a growing concern for strategic stability and collective security. Unfortunately, cyber conflict suffers from a lack of conceptual clarity about its impact on collective security and a lack of consensus among international actors on how to interpret it. This article proposes to understand cyber conflict as an evolving process driven by two factors: the way in which digital space is configured and the way in which tactical, organizational, strategic, and doctrinal characteristics related to cyber have been included in the field of national and international security. Both tend to encourage offensive behavior but also demonstrate features pointing to restraint.     

Political dynamics in Kenya’s post-electoral violence: Justice without peace or political compromise?

The political upheavals that erupted in Kenya after the release of the 2007–8 election results resulted in the death of approximately 1 200 people, as well as the loss of livestock and other valuable property. While the Kenyan government tried to seek solutions to the crisis, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued warrants for the arrest of top government officials. For its part, the African Union (AU) accused the ICC of racism by targeting only African leaders, and maintained that such practices undermine the rule of equality before the law set forth in Article 27 of the Rome Statute. The AU is therefore advising African countries, including Kenya, to consider withdrawing from the ICC. Will the ICC's intervention into the situation in Kenya bring justice and peace to the country, or will it add to the existing injuries affecting not just the country but the region as well? Through a critical analysis of contemporary scholarly discourse, this article unravels the dilemma of the ICC's intervention and the likely consequences of this action for the people of Kenya and Africa.     

一种基于证据间距离和信息熵的证据组合方法?

针对改进的基于证据间距离的组合方法,首先计算证据间距离并求出各个证据的支持度和可信度,选取支持度高的作为较可信证据,其次引入证据信息熵,计算修正系数,对这些证据的可信度进行修正,将可信度作为权重,进行证据的加权平均,再利用Dempster组合规则对所有证据进行融合。算例表明,该方法比现有的方法更加有效。     

Minimal LST representations of MAP(n)s: Moment fittings and queueing approximations

A Markovian arrival process of order n, MAP(n), is typically described by two n × n transition rate matrices in terms of rate parameters. While it is straightforward and intuitive, the Markovian representation is redundant since the minimal number of parameters is n² for non‐redundant MAP(n). It is well known that the redundancy complicates exact moment fittings. In this article, we present a minimal and unique Laplace‐Stieltjes transform (LST) representations for MAP(n)s. Even though the LST coefficients vector itself is not a minimal representation, we show that the joint LST of stationary intervals can be represented with the minimum number of parameters. We also propose another minimal representation for MAP(3)s based on coefficients of the characteristic polynomial equations of the two transition rate matrices. An exact moment fitting procedure is presented for MAP(3)s based on two proposed minimal representations. We also discuss how MAP(3)/G/1 departure process can be approximated as a MAP(3). A simple tandem queueing network example is presented to show that the MAP(3) performs better than the MAP(2) in queueing approximations especially under moderate traffic intensities. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 549–561, 2016     

一种修正的冲突证据融合方法

对于冲突证据,D-S证据理论无法使用甚至无法得出正确的结果,进而引发了专家学者的研究。针对该问题,提出了一种新的冲突证据融合方法,建立了多传感器综合可信度的计算模型,根据综合可信度得到多传感器的合成结果,采用D-S证据理论对合成结果进行组合,既解决了高冲突问题,又解决了低冲突问题。最后通过仿真验证了该方法的有效性。     

相控阵雷达维修方案优选方法研究

针对相控阵雷达维修方案的选择问题,确定了维修方案的决策属性,并提出一种基于改进TOPSIS法的相控阵雷达维修方案优选方法。该方法通过引入Vague集来处理维修方案选择中存在的模糊信息,并采用博弈论综合赋权法来确定决策属性的综合权重。通过计算各备选方案与正、负理想方案的灰色关联度,得到了维修方案的灰色关联相对贴近度,进而实现对维修方案的排序和选择。最后,通过算例应用与分析,对提出的方法进行了验证。     

水面舰艇防空作战能力的需求生成方法

为了更好地量化表达水面舰艇所具备的防空作战能力,提出了一种基于元活动的能力需求生成方法。建立了能力需求生成框架,在此框架下进行元活动库的提取,能力指标的分解,元活动-能力指标映射规则的分析得到中近程拦截能力的能力指标并进行了冲突消解,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

基于事故树和贝叶斯的军民航飞行冲突风险研究

为充分了解当前军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候的成因,并对其发生原因进行有重点的预防和对事件发生概率的精确预测,首先建立事故树模型,对其原因进行分析;总结导致其发生的基本事件,计算事故树模型的最小割集和各个基本事件的结构重要度;其次对军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候的发生概率进行合理的取值,得出基本事件的概率重要度,指出基本事件发生概率对顶事件发生概率的影响;最后构建军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候贝叶斯网络模型,计算中间事件的条件概率和顶事件发生概率,并与实际结果进行对比,验证方法可行性。     

MABAC method for multiple attribute group decision making under q-rung orthopair fuzzy environment

As the generalization of intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and Pythagorean fuzzy set (PFS), the q-rung orthopair fuzzy set (q-ROFS) has emerged as a more meaningful and effective tool to solve multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems in management and scientific domains. The MABAC (multi-attributive border approximation area comparison) model, which handles the complex and uncertain decision making issues by computing the distance between each alternative and the bored approximation area (BAA), has been investigated by an increasing number of researchers more recent years. In our article, consider the conventional MABAC model and some fundamental theories of q-rung orthopair fuzzy set (q-ROFS), we shall introduce the q-rung orthopair fuzzy MABAC model to solve MADM problems. at first, we briefly review some basic theories related to q-ROFS and conventional MABAC model. Furthermore, the q-rung orthopair fuzzy MABAC model is built and the decision making steps are described. In the end, An actual MADM application has been given to testify this new model and some comparisons between this novel MABAC model and two q-ROFNs aggregation operators are provided to further demonstrate the merits of the q-rung orthopair fuzzy MABAC model.