无线传感器网络在海防工程结构健康监测中的应用

海防工程是海军赢得非接触、非对称作战胜利和保存作战潜力的重要硬件基础,将关系到海军作战装备战斗力的发挥,直接影响作战的进程与结局。因此,海防工程结构健康监测系统正成为军内学术界和工程界的研究热点。无线传感器网络由于安装方便、维护成本低和部署灵活等特点,已被广泛应用于各类工程结构健康监测系统中。本文阐述了基于无线传感器网络的海防工程结构健康监测系统提出的背景、基本概念和构成体系,通过模拟部署舰艇洞库结构健康监测系统,协作地实时感知和采集洞库结构信息及环境数据,从而实现海防工程、信息网络和后勤管理的无缝衔接,形成一体化保障能力。     

基于正态分布曲线的分段式变步长LMS算法

针对传统最小均方误差(Least Mean Square, LMS)自适应滤波算法由于步长固定,在解决稳态误差与收敛性之间的关系时,始终处于矛盾状态的问题,在对传统的固定步长LMS自适应滤波算法分析的基础上,根据变步长LMS自适应滤波算法的步长调整原则,通过构造步长因子与误差信号的非线性函数,提出了一种基于正态分布曲线的分段式变步长LMS自适应滤波算法,并分析了参数取值对算法性能的影响。针对实际信号处理过程中参考信号难以选取的问题,提出了一种基于分裂阵的参考信号选取方法。理论和海试数据分析结果表明:该算法的收敛速度和稳态误差明显优于固定步长的LMS自适应滤波算法和基于Sigmoid函数的变步长LMS自适应滤波算法。     

Intelligence reform and the transformation of the state: the end of a French exception

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the intelligence sector is a privileged vantage point to observe and analyse a transformation of the State in France, as this transformation deeply affects the heart of the executive power and the French intelligence and security apparatus. Traditionally, intelligence was not conceived in France as a functional tool in the hands of the decision-maker but was rather defined as a ‘regalian power’. Intelligence activities were derived from a very specific conception of the State, and especially the particular notion of ‘reason of State’ (raison d’État). The current intelligence reform prompts speculation as to whether it represents more than a ‘simple’ functional reorganisation or in fact could signify that intelligence is now recognised as a tool in the hands of a ‘État de droit’ (‘liberal state’). The idea of a French ‘exceptionalism’ is addressed through a theoretical approach of the way France redefines intelligence and surveillance in relation with a major evolution of the notion of ‘reason of State’ itself. Then the article illustrates the assumption of a ‘lost tradition’ of reason of State through an analysis of the current reform of the intelligence sector in France. This reform is based on processes of rationalisation, centralization, modernisation and normalisation of both intelligence activities and intelligence services in France. As a conclusion, the article addresses the reactions to the January and November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, and asks whether resilience towards terrorism requires to accelerate the pace of the transformation of the French intelligence sector.     

改革国防科技评价制度,完善国防科技评价体系

国防科技评价是国家科技评价的组成部分,是国防科技管理的重要内容,是构建军民融合创新体系的内在要求。分析了国防科技评价的基本内涵,阐述了构建国防科技评价体系的总体设想,提出了改革国防科技评价制度的几点思考。研究认为,改革国防科技评价制度,完善国防科技评价体,要加强国防科技评价理论研究,重视国防科技评价机构建设,充分发挥第三方评价的作用,建立多元化的国防科技评价体系,完善国防科技专家选择机制,建立健全国防科技评价指标,加快国防科技评价人才培养,优化国防科技评价环境建设。     

美军装备采办合同管理及其标准化

在我军武器装备建设逐渐"以计划为主要管理方式和手段"向"以合同为主要管理方式和手段"转变的背景下,装备采购合同管理的研究日趋深入。而装备采购合同"行政合同"的性质及合同标的物复杂性的特点,进一步凸显了标准化在保证装备采购合同规范性、降低不确定性、减少交易成本和提高工作效率中的重要作用。文章在对美军装备采办合同管理标准化特点与经验详细分析和提炼的基础上,对比我军装备采购合同管理体制及标准化现状,有针对性的提出了装备采购合同管理标准化建议,梳理了标准化重点,并为日后时机成熟时制定适用于装备采购合同管理的相关标准或指南,奠定了一定的研究基础。     

The impact of defense and non‐defense public spending on growth in Asia and Latin America∗

For a three‐sector Feder‐Ram framework, we present time‐series, cross‐sectional estimates for two cohorts, consisting of Asian and Latin American countries. The estimates indicate that private investment, and defense and non‐defense public spending are growth promoting for alternative error components representations. For the best error components representation, greater growth enhancement is associated with the two forms of public spending in Asia than in Latin America, while the opposite comparison characterizes private investment. Although defense is growth promoting, an opportunity cost exists insofar as non‐defense spending, financed by defense spending, appears to give a small net boost to growth in Latin America.     

How not to pay for the war

As a result of allied subsidy and the influence of sunk costs, the marginal cost of the Gulf War to the US was reduced to negligible size. This result is at variance with the Olson‐Zeckhauser thesis that in an alliance “the small exploit the large.” A game theoretic alternative explanation suggests that the relation between allies resembles the game of Chicken, successfully played by the US. The ability to shift the marginal costs of war in the short term raises questions about the possible underestimation of long term effects.     

NATO Territorial Ballistic Missile Defense and its Implications for Arms Control

ABSTRACT

Since 2002, NATO's territorial missile defense has evoked continuous debates between NATO states and the Russian Federation. Thirteen years have passed without reaching a common denominator. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the historical background of the debate and the technical details of the missile defense system, highlighting its shortcomings and the state of its deployment process. It also contrasts the military-technical and political arguments of both sides, before addressing the applicable norms of international law to highlight violations and the effect of this noncompliance on existing arms control measures.     

舰艇防空火力规划与调度方法研究

根据舰艇防空武器拦截过程的时间连续性和拦截效果的不确定性特点,提出了智能规划和优化调度相结合的舰艇防空计划生成方法。在规划阶段,先用智能规划描述语言PDDL对舰艇防空问题进行建模;针对新的来袭目标或观察的拦截结果,利用智能规划的高效行动推理能力,快速生成可能的备选行动方案;在优化调度阶段,对已生成的备选方案的行动系列进行时间、资源冲突处理,并计算选择出当前最佳拦截方案。与现有的采用离散化处理的武器-目标分配方法相比,该规划与调度过程充分体现了拦截过程的连续性,拦截效果的不确定性,拦截过程中的武器协同,以及最佳拦截时机的选择等,更好地描述了舰艇防空的实际过程。最后,通过蒙特卡罗仿真试验,验证了算法的有效性,为舰艇的自动化防空提供了一种新的解决办法。     

靶弹系统发展的某些新特点

靶弹系统建设对于防空兵器试验和部队作战训练具有重要的作用。介绍了靶弹的组成,美、俄等国靶弹系统研发现状以及主要型号靶弹的技术战术性能,详细分析了外军靶弹研发的特点和发展趋势,对我国防空兵器靶标体系建设有一定的参考借鉴作用。