Strategic “defensivism” and post-reset blues: US–Russian nuclear arms reductions,missile defenses and minimum deterrence

US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy may be moving, by design and by inadvertence, toward a posture of strategic “defensivism”. Strategic “defensivism” emphasizes the overlapping and reinforcing impact of: (1) reductions in US, Russian and possibly other strategic nuclear forces, possibly down to the level of “minimum deterrence,” (2) deployment of improved strategic and/or theater antimissile defenses for the US, NATO allies and other partners; and (3) additional reliance on conventional military forces for some missions hitherto preferentially assigned to nuclear weapons. This article deals with the first two of these aspects only: the interaction between missile defenses and offensive force reductions in US–Russian strategy and policy. The findings are that stable deterrence as between the USA and Russia is possible at lower than New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty levels, but reductions below 1000 deployed long-range weapons for each state, toward a true minimum deterrent posture, will require multilateral as opposed to bilateral coordination of arms limitations. Missile defenses might provide some denial capability against light attacks by states with small arsenals, but they still fall short of meaningful damage limitation as between powers capable of massive nuclear strikes.     

基于集对-层次分析法的合成部队作战能力分析

为科学评估合成部队战斗力水平,在准确量化作战行动的基础上,设计定义了39个作战能力最小数据集,抽象出快速反应、情报侦察、指挥控制等11种专题作战能力评价体系。以该标准采集的数据为样本, 运用集对-层次分析法实现了合成部队作战能力的综合评估。最后以火力打击能力评估模型为例,验证了该方法的有效性实用性。     

岸/舰双基地地波超视距雷达抗电离层干扰研究

针对现阶段困扰低纬度地区高频地波雷达发展的电离层干扰问题,分析了电离层的干扰特性,提出双基地体制下利用收发之间的位置相互关系减小高仰角区的电离层干扰的方案;通过对发射天线进行优化设计,增加天线在俯仰维的孔径,减小向上的能量辐射,达到降低电离层干扰的目的.仿真验证了该方法的有效性.