金属靶体材料动力硬度测试及动态阻力分析

以高速侵彻下45钢靶体侵彻阻力为研究对象,开展了弹体高速侵彻45钢靶体试验,获取了典型弹体对45钢靶体的成坑参数。基于高速侵彻阻力模型对靶体侵彻阻力及影响因素进行分析。结合流体动力学侵彻模型对不同弹体材料侵彻45钢靶体侵彻深度规律进行研究。研究结果表明:随着撞击速度的增大,45钢的靶体阻力从5. 13 GPa减小到3. 7 GPa;基于材料动力硬度测试方法的靶体动态阻力测试结果和理论计算结果吻合较好;随着靶体动态屈服强度的增大,靶体阻力呈线性增大的趋势;侵彻深度及靶体动态阻力理论计算结果和试验数据吻合较好,说明所提动态阻力确定方法可行,可为高速侵彻动力学研究提供参考。     

基于统一理论框架的故障诊断模型及学习进化方法

本文以概率图理论为基础,系统研究了基于这一理论框架的故障诊断模型,对模型的构建方法以及在不同场景下的模型演化方案进行了探讨,使得在统一理论框架下可实现多模式系统故障诊断、耦合故障诊断、动态故障诊断、故障预测等复杂情形的诊断。为了弥补单独利用基于模型的方法和基于数据的方法的缺陷,研究了诊断模型的学习进化策略,实现了诊断效果的改进和优化。另外,对模型后续的能力扩展和可能的研究方向进行了展望,为后续理论研究提供了参考。     

基于MC-CNN网络的磁性舰船目标运动参数估计

传统磁性目标运动估计效果依赖于目标的初始状态信息,为克服这一缺陷,建立了磁性运动目标三分量投影模型,并据此生成了磁性舰船运动目标在运动速度、航向、信噪比等参数变化情况下的10类目标的训练数据集、验证数据集以及测试数据集。进一步,设计了多通道卷积神经网络（MC-CNN）对目标的正横距离和运动速度进行了估计,并比较和分析了不同的学习方式和激活函数对网络性能的影响,结果表明Adam+tanh的组合方式的估计性能要优于其它的组合方式,而且对磁性目标运动参数的估计效果比较精确,此方法相较于卡尔曼滤波、粒子滤波等估计算法的优越性在于运算复杂度低以及参数估计不需要目标初始状态信息。     

改进BAS-TIMS算法在空战机动决策中的应用

针对当前空战机动决策精确度低、实时性差的缺点,对天牛须搜索-战术免疫机动系统(Beetle Antennae Search-Tactical Immune Maneuver System, BAS-TIMS)算法进行改进,并应用于空战机动决策中。增加左爬升、右爬升、左俯冲、右俯冲4种机动,对传统的机动策略库进行扩充,设计了11种基本机动策略并给出了相应的控制方法。基于距离、高度、速度、角度和战机性能优势函数,利用非参量法构造战机机动决策综合优势函数。针对天牛须搜索算法在全局搜索和收敛速度上存在的缺陷,引入蒙特卡洛概率迭代的方法对算法进行改进,并和战术免疫机动系统进行融合,将改进的BAS-TIMS算法用于空战机动决策。设计算例进行仿真分析,并将结果和博弈论法、改进共生生物免疫进化算法、传统BAS算法和传统TIMS模型的计算结果进行对比,验证所提算法的有效性。仿真结果表明:改进BAS-TIMS算法在空战机动决策的收敛精度、收敛速度和全局搜索能力上更加具有优势。     

超算环境科学工作流应用的容错

超算环境中科学工作流技术广泛应用于科学研究和工程仿真领域。复杂多物理过程数值模拟、多阶段数据处理等应用往往需要使用多种应用软件相互协作,构建业务流程自动执行来提升工作效率。然而在超算环境中执行科学工作流应用面临着资源失效、任务配置错误等异常情况,造成工作流执行中断,严重影响完成效率,故容错功能对超算工作流应用的稳定持续运行有重要意义。介绍了科学工作流的容错设计分类,并对典型工作流系统的容错设计进行分析评述;提出了基于决策树的事件-条件-动作容错模型,设计了非侵入式可扩展的容错架构,并针对自主研发的部署在超算环境下的科学工作流应用平台HSWAP,实现了运行时可配置的容错策略。在实际的工程仿真任务中,基于所提出模型和架构实现的容错机制为提高工作流执行效率发挥了重要作用。     

顾及地磁影响的GNSS电离层层析不等像素间距算法

突破传统全球导航卫星系统(Global Navigation Satellite System, GNSS)层析反演研究忽略地球磁场对电离层变化活动的影响,同时顾及不同电离层高度电子密度变化较大的影响,提出在地磁坐标系下建立电离层高度方向上不等像素间距的GNSS层析反演方法。在此基础上,通过建立新的电离层层析迭代松弛因子,提高GNSS电离层电子密度层析反演结果精度。利用IRI—2007电离层模型、GNSS实测数据与电离层测高仪数据,从模拟验证和实测数据对比两方面,反演统计了不同层析算法估算的峰值电离层电子密度误差、电子密度剖面结果平均绝对百分比误差及均方根误差,验证了顾及地磁影响的GNSS电离层层析不等像素间距算法的有效性。     

Cross-linking density and aging constitutive model of HTPB coating under prestrain thermal accelerated aging

In order to study the cross-linking density and aging constitutive relationship of HTPB coating during storage, the thermal accelerated aging tests at 0%, 3%, 6% and 9% prestrains were carried out. The cross-linking density of HTPB coating at different aging stages were tested using low-field ¹H NMR and the variation of cross-linking density was analyzed. The aging model of cross-linking density considering the chemical aging and the physical stretching factors was established. The uniaxial tensile tests were carried out on HTPB coating at different aging stages and the cross-linking density was introduced into Ogden hyperelastic constitutive model as a characterization parameter of correction coefficient. Combined with uniaxial tensile test results, a prestrain aging constitutive model of HTPB coating was established. The results show that the cross-linking density of HTPB coating increases rapidly at first and then slowly with the increase of thermal accelerated aging time without prestrain. Under prestrain conditions, the cross-linking density of HTPB coating decreases at the early stage, and increases rapidly at first and then slowly at the middle and late stages of thermal accelerated aging. The correlation coefficients of aging model of cross-linking density and aging constitutive model with test results are R > 0.9500 and R > 0.9900 respectively, which can be used to accurately describe the cross-linking density and aging constitutive relationship of HTPB coating under prestrain accelerated thermal aging conditions.     

Maximizing deviation method for multiple attribute decision making under q-rung orthopair fuzzy environment

Because of the uncertainty and subjectivity of decision makers in the complex decision-making environment, the evaluation information of alternatives given by decision makers is often fuzzy and uncertain. As a generalization of intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFSs) and Pythagoras fuzzy set (PFSs), q-rung orthopair fuzzy set (q-ROFS) is more suitable for expressing fuzzy and uncertain information. But, in actual multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problems, the weights of DMs and attributes are always completely unknown or partly known, to date, the maximizing deviation method is a good tool to deal with such issues. Thus, combine the q-ROFS and conventional maximizing deviation method, we will study the maximizing deviation method under q-ROFSs and q-RIVOFSs in this paper. Firstly, we briefly introduce the basic concept of q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets (q-ROFSs) and q-rung interval-valued orthopair fuzzy sets (q-RIVOFSs). Then, combine the maximizing deviation method with q-rung orthopair fuzzy information, we establish two new decision making models. On this basis, the proposed models are applied to MADM problems with q-rung orthopair fuzzy information. Compared with existing methods, the effectiveness and superiority of the new model are analyzed. This method can effectively solve the MADM problem whose decision information is represented by q-rung orthopair fuzzy numbers (q-ROFNs) and whose attributes are incomplete.     

The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

装备剩余寿命预测平行仿真中模型动态演化方法

装备平行仿真中的一个重要概念是实时数据驱动的模型动态演化,但是至今仍缺乏具体应用领域的实现方法。以带未知离散冲击的混合退化装备剩余寿命预测为背景,以多态Wiener状态空间模型为演化对象,提出一种装备平行仿真中模型动态演化方法,包括基于交互多模型强跟踪滤波的模型软切换和基于期望最大化算法的模型参数在线估计,并实现了基于平行仿真的装备剩余寿命实时预测。利用某轴承退化数据进行实例研究,结果表明该方法能有效提高仿真逼真度,剩余寿命预测的准确度较高、不确定性较小,具有较高工程应用价值。