Defence spending and economic growth in South Africa: A supply and demand model*

This paper provides a contribution to the growing corpus of knowledge and understanding of the interaction between economic growth and defence spending in South Africa by specifying a Keynesian simultaneous equation model and estimating the system for the period 1961 to 1997. The model contains a growth equation, a savings equation, a trade balance equation and a military burden equation and when estimated by single equation and systems estimation methods is relatively well specified. There is evidence of an overall negative effect of military spending on the economy over this period, though the significance of individual coefficients is low. There is certainly no evidence of any positive impact, suggesting that cuts in military spending do present an opportunity for improved macroeconomic performance.     

MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA: COMMENT AND RECONSIDERATION

In a recent paper in this journal, Wijewerra and Webb study the connection between military spending and gross domestic product (GDP) in a group of five South Asian countries, finding a small but statistically significant positive relationship between military spending and GDP. This paper reviews their approach and proposes an alternative which tries to deal with the problems of omitted variables and variable construction. It finds, in contrast, that a higher share of military spending in GDP is associated with lower growth of GDP per capita.     

Defense Burden and the Effect of Democracy: Evidence from a Spatial Panel Analysis

ABSTRACT

Do democracies spend less on national defense? This paper provides new evidence of the effect of democracy on defense burden based on a Spatial Durbin Model with panel data for 98 countries for the years 1992–2008. While democracy measured by means of an index variable covering the entire range from perfect democracy to perfect autocracy turns out to be insignificant, dummy variables indicating transition to higher levels of democracy reveal a statistically highly significant negative effect of democracy on a country’s defense burden. Allowing for country-specific effects reveals heterogeneity in the effect of democracy across countries. Apart from the effect of democracy, the estimation results indicate strong spatial dependence of military burdens across countries. Moreover, they provide statistical evidence for a peace dividend, for substitution effects in defense spending and for a negative effect on the military burden for countries when they exhibit a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit.     

气缸张开式尾翼弹气缸压力数值仿真研究

为研究气缸张开式尾翼工作原理,分析某型滑膛反坦克炮榴弹气缸充放气过程,建立尾翼弹在炮膛内的气缸压力模型,将其与炮弹底部气体压力、密度、温度等参量的变化规律相耦合,并对气缸压力模型进行可解性分析,得到一种求解气缸气体压力、密度等参数随时间变化的数值方法．     

纯方位交叉定位算法分析

摘要：针对纯方位交叉定位中存在着地球曲率对定位精度影响的问题本文提出了基于正北方向修正和椭球模型两种定位算法。通过与传统的交叉定位算法比较,可以看出这两种算法具有较好的定位精度。在理论上分析了测量误差和观测站位置误差对定位精度产生的影响,给出了几何精度因子（GDOP）的理论推导和仿真结果。     

基于3DS的ISAR二维散射点模型仿真

当前,对ISAR成像和目标识别的研究很多,但用于ISAR成像和目标识别的目标模型大都相对简单.建立一种新的ISAR二维散射点模型,生成目标各种姿态的二维散射点数据库.首先选用3DS为散射点生成模型,以此为基础完成模型简化和信息抽取.然后根据目标姿态变化,计算转换坐标,并以F16战斗机为例生成二维散射点图像.最后采用步进频雷达信号对目标散射点模型进行ISAR成像.所建立的目标二维散射点模型可以用于ISAR成像和目标识别研究.     

基于三角模糊熵的装备维修合同商评价与选择

装备维修合同商保障能力评价是军民融合装备维修招投标过程中合理选择最优合同商的基础.通过对招投标过程及以往资料的研究,在考虑部队装备维修保障特殊性的基础上,从合同商资质、技术能力、管理水平和价格成本4个方面构建装备维修合同商评价指标体系,并运用基于三角模糊熵的综合评价法进行评价.综合运用三角模糊法和熵值法,针对评价指标的模糊性和不确定性,采用三角模糊数对定性指标量化处理,又用熵权反映出指标竞争的相对激烈程度,计算出评价对象与理想点的贴近度和距离,据此对评价对象进行优劣排序,最后通过实例进行了验证.     

空域窗射击毁歼概率解析计算模型

为提高未来空域窗射击技术对空中机动目标的毁伤概率,需要根据目标机动幅度对未来空域窗的大小进行动态设定,故提出“自适应射击窗”的概念.空域窗大小设定的依据是使毁歼概率最优.可以采用解析法来在线计算该毁歼概率值.在分析空域窗射击误差的基础上,演绎了均匀分布法与高斯和法两种毁歼概率解析计算方法的公式.以毁歼概率蒙特卡罗法仿真数据为基准值,对两种解析法的计算精度进行了对比分析.仿真结果表明,高斯和法的计算精度显著优于均匀分布法,且满足实时计算要求,适于在线评估空域窗的射击效能.     

改进型JDL模型在武警部队院校信息化建设中的构建

在武警部队院校的网络信息化水平迅速发展的今天,由于各功能模块缺少统一的接口规范和能够协调各部门信息共享的机制,使得建成的各个功能模块之间无法共享信息,造成了数据库中信息的大量冗余和重复。结合数据融合技术的基本原理、发展现状和应用前景,对数据融合技术进行了介绍;针对武警院校信息融合的需求,提出了改进型JDL模型,分析了武警院校信息融合网络的服务架构层次,对信息融合网络中的核心问题信息共享、接口规范、数据融合进行了研究;利用模块化设计的思路,对原型系统进行了分析,对实验数据进行了重组,并提出了数据优化方案。     

基于NFxPEM算法的调制气流声源的非线性补偿

针对调制气流声源存在较强的谐波畸变,将声源系统等效为Hammerstein非线性模型,利用该模型下的预失真技术对声源进行非线性补偿研究。根据辨识的Hammerstein模型中静态非线性部分带有直流分量的特点,给出了考虑直流分量补偿的预失真算法,并用数值仿真验证了算法的准确性和直流分量补偿的必要性。在非线性补偿实验中,根据单频信号辨识得到Hammerstein模型参数,采用NFxPEM算法求得对应的预失真Wiener模型参数和预失真波形。实验结果表明, 与直接发射相比,补偿发射后声波的功率谱中谐波能量有所下降,而基频能量有小幅度的上升,说明了研究思路的正确性。