Estimating defence budget saving from disarmament: the United States’ case

Probing the technology in the production of US national defence by using a dynamic cost‐function model with adjustment costs, this paper evaluates the effect of reducing the level of national defence on the defence budget saving. Our inquiry involves estimating the defence production structure without output data for non‐market goods that are normally unavailable. Our findings include: (i) the United States behaves rationally to minimize cost in the production of national defence; (ii) the adjustment costs are larger in disarmament than in military build‐up; (iii) due to the adjustment costs peculiar to disarmament, the defence budget saving from disarmament appears small, but cutbacks allow great savings on the defence budget.     

Externality of Defense Expenditure in the United States: A New Analytical Technique to Overcome Multicollinearity

Abstract

This study estimates a three-sector Feder–Ram model using US annual data for 1965–2014 to confirm the externality of defense expenditure in the United States. Although the model is often used in the literature to scrutinize whether this effect exists, a flaw intrinsic to this model is the appearance of multicollinearity. In this study, I introduced novel techniques, namely: the standardization and estimation of a simple slope, to estimate the model. The results are as follows. First, I prove that the multicollinearity problem can be resolved by standardization. Second, externality, which is judged to conventionally exist, is not found. Third, increases in defense expenditure bring about positive but limited economic growth when the ratio of private to defense expenditure in the previous year ranges from 5.09 to 6.82%. By re-estimating the model, this study contributes to developing the Feder–Ram model within the related literature.     

Democracy and peace: Reply to oneal and russett

The criticism of James, Solberg and Wolfson (JSW) (1999) by Oneal and Russett (OR) is not responsive to the methodologica] issues at stake. JSW argued that war is an endogenous feature of the world political and economic system. If its causes are to be measured, it must be as a structural equation in a simultaneous system. Wedded to the idea that “democracies never fight each other,” OR rely on a single equation to justify their view. JSW claim that such an equation may be an ad hoc reduced form with no causal implications unless the equation is explicitly identified as a structural equation. JSW expand the model to explain democracy and conflict as two endogenous variables. JSW do not claim to have discovered the true relationships between these variables by their minimal expansion of the structural relation. They do show that unless these (and other) variables are treated as part of a system, the results are unstable, contradictory, of minimal size and not a reliable guide to public policy.     

概念模型验证方法研究综述

概念模型验证是保证和提高仿真可信性的重要手段,是建模与仿真VV＆A中的重点和难点．首先将概念模型的验证方法划分为非形式化方法、静态方法、动态方法和形式化方法4类,并提出了一种基于本体推理的概念模型验证方法,然后对各种方法的基本思想、基本原理、基本过程、适用对象、优缺点进行全面的分析总结,明确了各种方法的优缺点和适用范围,为如何选用各种验证方法提供参考,也明确了下一步应重点研究的问题．     

位置随动系统动态性能自动检测研究

通过分析某型位置随动系统的组成和动态技术指标,提出了位置随动系统动态性能自动检测的设计方案和测试方法,利用信号仿真模块和基于DSP的高速数据采集与处理模块,建立了自动检测的硬件电路和软件结构,确定了测试位置随动系统的动态性能指标、测试方法和软件功能,实现了对某型位置随动系统动态性能的自动检测．     

网络化装备维修保障概念与体系结构研究

摘要：针对传统的装备维修保障理论不能适应现代装备发展的问题,在网络技术高速发展的今天,提出了网络化装备维修保障的概念．主要探讨了网络化维修保障的概念和特点、网络化维修保障理念与传统维修保障理念的关系、网络化维修保障体系构想等问题．对网络化装备维修保障的概念和体系进行了初步的定义和分析,为进一步研究网络化维修保障理论奠定了基础．     

塔架摆杆系统静动态特性研究

为研究航天发射塔架摆杆系统的静动态特性,利用Pro／E建立其三维实体模型,再将模型导入Abaqus中建立其有限元模型并对该塔架摆杆系统进行静、动态分析计算．通过静态分析,得到塔架关键部位的应力及位移值,对其安全性进行了校核;通过动态分析得到其固有频率及振型,与试验所得频率进行对比,验证有限元建模的正确性．     

战时装备调配保障决策模型构建研究

分析了战时装备调配保障决策的特点,运用模糊聚类分析法对装备调配保障对象进行了分组和优先级排序,以此为基础,运用目标规划法构建了战时装备调配保障决策模型,最后,通过实例验证了模型的可行性和有效性．     

高炮系统火力单元弹药消耗模型研究

摘要：高炮群是我军要地防空工作中的重要环节,其弹药预测结果的精准程度将直接影响到弹药保障工作的顺利进行．针对弹药的消耗问题,进行了针对具体作战任务的高炮系统火力单元弹药消耗模型研究,从问题分析、建立数学模型、仿真求解模型以及结果分析四个方面分析了高炮系统火力单元弹药消耗情况．仿真结果表明,该方法具有较高的建模精度,从而验证了方法的有效性．     

单小批量武器装备保障的质量屋模型研究

摘要：针对单小批量武器装备保障的特殊需求,对传统的质量屋模型进行了改进,建立了基于装备保障需求与保障规则的质量屋模型,利用整数规划技术进行求解,使得单小批量武器的装备保障规则按照实际保障需求重新排列优先次序,并通过对某型火炮保障方案的筛选验证了模型的正确性．新的质量屋模型发展完善了质量屋的理论与方法,有助于提高单小批量武器的装备保障能力．