Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949

Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.     

九自由度可控翼伞系统滑翔及稳定性分析

在建立可控翼伞系统九自由度飞行动力模型的基础上,以翼伞面积为４０ｍ~２的可控翼伞系统为例,对其滑翔及稳定性进行仿真计算和分析,并与六自由度模型结果作了比较,着重分析了伞－回收物相对俯仰运动的稳定性,其结果可在系统设计和实验中参考。     

以发射质量最小为优化目标的反TBM拦截器优化研究

以反ＴＢＭ拦截器发射质量最小为优化目标,系统地研究了反ＴＢＭ拦截器总体优化技术,建立了反ＴＢＭ拦截器数学模型和优化算法,并得出重要结论。     

非线性系统的鲁棒镇定:Volterra级数法

基于Ｖｏｌｔｅｒｒａ 级数理论,针对一类非线性系统,首先给出了此类系统可镇定的充分条件,接着讨论了非线性系统鲁棒镇定性的问题,并给出了系统鲁棒可镇定的条件;最后,用实例仿真来验证其有效性     

树形挠性多体系统的 Kane 动力学方程 ——一种面向计算机的建模方法

本文针对具有树形结构的空间挠性多体系统,建立了Kane 动力学模型。挠性多体系统由任意数目的挠性体或刚体组成,假定铰链点之间具有三自由度相对转动和平动,选取相对平动速度和转动角速度,以及模态坐标的导数为系统的广义速度,建立了系统的最小维数运动方程,所得结果便于计算机自动生成和进行数值仿真。     

拦截俯冲目标的数学模型探讨

假设俯冲目标运动轨迹依次为水平直线运动、匀速圆周运动．俯冲直线运动的三个阶段．在这个假设的基础上,推导出拦截俯冲目标攻击我舰（艇）和友舰的数学模型．较准确的快速计算出目标曲线运动参数．俯冲直线运动参数和弹丸发射诸元．     

矩形薄板弹性稳定性的解析解法

本文求得了矩形薄板临界状态时的平衡屈曲挠度微分方程的一般解。可以求解任意边界条件下矩形薄板的临界载荷。以四边自由的正方形板为例求解了四边均匀受压的临界载荷及其屈曲波形。     

求吊声一次搜潜概率的新方法

本文用不同于既往的研究方法,从对目标运动要素散布的分析入手,较合理地假设了目标的运动,进而用数学分析方法推得吊放声纳一次搜潜概率的解析模型。这一模型的突出特点是计算简便、实用性强,各参数的含义一目了然。     

一类带扰动时变系统的运动稳定性

本文引进矩阵测度概念,讨论了一类带扰动的线性与非线性时变系统的运动稳定性,所得到的渐近稳定性条件改进了文[1]的结果,并去掉了文[4]中要求系统的线性部分为李雅普诺夫可化组的限制条件。     

Imperial nostalgia,the liberal lie,and the perils of postmodern counterinsurgency

Since 9/11, counterinsurgency is back in fashion; the ‘war on terror’ has even been branded a ‘global counterinsurgency’. However the context within which counterinsurgency originally arose is critical to understanding the prospects for its present success; the radically changed environment in which it is currently being conducted casts into considerable doubt the validity of the doctrine's application by many national militaries currently ‘rediscovering’ this school of military thought today. Above all, classical counterinsurgency was a profoundly imperial, state-centric phenomenon; consequently it only rarely faced the thorny issue of sovereignty and legitimacy which bedevils and may doom these same efforts today.