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Stephen J. Cimbala 《Defense & Security Analysis》2017,33(3):193-208
Nuclear deterrence and cyber war seem almost antithetical in their respective intellectual pedigrees. Nuclear weapons are unique in their ability to create mass destruction in a short time. Information or “cyber” weapons, at least for the most part, aim at sowing confusion or mass disruption instead of widespread physical destruction. Nevertheless, there are some intersections between cyber and nuclear matters, and these have the potential to become troublesome for the future of nuclear deterrence. For example, cyber attacks might complicate the management of a nuclear crisis. As well, information attacks on command-control and communications systems might lead to a mistaken nuclear launch based on false warnings, to erroneous interpretations of data or to panic on account of feared information blackout. It is not inconceivable that future nuclear strike planning will include a preliminary wave of cyber strikes or at least a more protracted “preparation of the battlefield” by roaming through enemy networks to plant malware or map vulnerabilities. 相似文献
204.
In this article, we study how to derive bounds for the reliability and the expected lifetime of a coherent system with heterogeneous ordered components. These bounds can be used to compare the performance of the systems obtained by permuting the components at a given system structure, that is, to study where we should place the different components at a system structure to get the most reliable system. Moreover, a similar procedure is applied to get bounds for mixtures and for the generalized proportional hazard rate model when the baseline populations are ordered. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 108–116, 2017 相似文献
205.
Single‐commodity stochastic network design under demand and topological uncertainties with insufficient data 下载免费PDF全文
Stochastic network design is fundamental to transportation and logistic problems in practice, yet faces new modeling and computational challenges resulted from heterogeneous sources of uncertainties and their unknown distributions given limited data. In this article, we design arcs in a network to optimize the cost of single‐commodity flows under random demand and arc disruptions. We minimize the network design cost plus cost associated with network performance under uncertainty evaluated by two schemes. The first scheme restricts demand and arc capacities in budgeted uncertainty sets and minimizes the worst‐case cost of supply generation and network flows for any possible realizations. The second scheme generates a finite set of samples from statistical information (e.g., moments) of data and minimizes the expected cost of supplies and flows, for which we bound the worst‐case cost using budgeted uncertainty sets. We develop cutting‐plane algorithms for solving the mixed‐integer nonlinear programming reformulations of the problem under the two schemes. We compare the computational efficacy of different approaches and analyze the results by testing diverse instances of random and real‐world networks. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 154–173, 2017 相似文献
206.
This article proposes an approximation for the blocking probability in a many‐server loss model with a non‐Poisson time‐varying arrival process and flexible staffing (number of servers) and shows that it can be used to set staffing levels to stabilize the time‐varying blocking probability at a target level. Because the blocking probabilities necessarily change dramatically after each staffing change, we randomize the time of each staffing change about the planned time. We apply simulation to show that (i) the blocking probabilities cannot be stabilized without some form of randomization, (ii) the new staffing algorithm with randomiation can stabilize blocking probabilities at target levels and (iii) the required staffing can be quite different when the Poisson assumption is dropped. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 177–202, 2017 相似文献
207.
Statistical analysis for masked system life data from Marshall‐Olkin Weibull distribution under progressive hybrid censoring 下载免费PDF全文
This paper considers the statistical analysis of masked data in a series system, where the components are assumed to have Marshall‐Olkin Weibull distribution. Based on type‐I progressive hybrid censored and masked data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimates, approximate confidence intervals, and bootstrap confidence intervals of unknown parameters. As the maximum likelihood estimate does not exist for small sample size, Gibbs sampling is used to obtain the Bayesian estimates and Monte Carlo method is employed to construct the credible intervals based on Jefferys prior with partial information. Numerical simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed methods and one data set is analyzed. 相似文献
208.
Richard A.I. Johnson 《Defence and Peace Economics》2017,28(3):272-297
Arms transfers provide exporters an avenue to provide security to other states while gaining economic benefits. Arms transfers provide importers an avenue to gain security without having to rely on alliances. Past research uses aggregate measures of the monetary or security value of major weapon system transfers without accounting for strategic differences in possible use in interstate and civil conflict. This article presents a data set on interstate transfers of major weapon systems between 1950 and 2010 building upon Stockholm Peach Research Institute’s Arms Trade Register with several improvements. First, it disaggregates land weapons and air weapons into categories reflecting their strategic capabilities. Second, model level characteristics (e.g. age, speed, and range) are drawn from Jane’s Defence sources. Additionally, the data set covers a larger range of time and states than previous data sets categorizing arms. To demonstrate the usefulness, this article first presents summary statistics of the data set and then replicates an earlier test to show that the effect of human rights and regime types on United States transfers differs across the categories of arms compared to alternative measures of arms transfers. 相似文献
209.
针对群系统编队跟踪问题,提出一种满足线性二次型调节器性能指标的优化控制方法。建立编队跟踪问题的数学描述和设计编队跟踪控制协议。给出群系统实现编队跟踪的充要条件,借助李雅普诺夫第二方法分析系统的稳定性。得到了控制协议能够最小化线性二次型调节器性能指标的拓扑条件,设计了编〖BHDWG8,WK10YQ,DK1*2,WK1*2D〗〖XCWL.TIF;%129%129〗听语音 聊科研与作者互动 队跟踪算法。仿真实验验证了控制方法的有效性。 相似文献
210.
《防务技术》2022,18(10):1842-1851
In this study, the approximate and exact solutions for the stationary-state of the solids model with neglecting reactant consumption for both non-uniform and uniform temperature systems were applied on gas ignition under a constant pressure condition. The criticality conditions for a slab, an infinite cylinder, and a sphere are determined and discussed using dimensionless temperatures under constant ambient and surface temperatures for a non-uniform temperature system. Exact solution for a Semenov model with convection heat loss was also presented. The solution of the Semenov problem for constant volume or density as a solid and constant pressure were compared. The critical parameter δ is calculated and compared with those of Frank-Kamenetskii solution values. The validation of the calculated ignition temperatures with other exact solution and experimental results were offered. The relation between critical parameters form Semenov and F.K. models solution was introduced. 相似文献