Analysis of decentralized multi‐product pull systems with lost sales

We study a pull‐type, flexible, multi‐product, and multi‐stage production/inventory system with decentralized two‐card kanban control policies. Each stage involves a processor and two buffers with finite target levels. Production stages, arranged in series, can process several product types one at a time. Transportation of semi‐finished parts from one stage to another is performed in fixed lot sizes. The exact analysis is mathematically intractable even for smaller systems. We present a robust approximation algorithm to model two‐card kanban systems with batch transfers under arbitrary complexity. The algorithm uses phase‐type modeling to find effective processing times and busy period analysis to identify delays among product types in resource contention. Our algorithm reduces the effort required for estimating performance measures by a considerable margin and resolves the state–space explosion problem of analytical approaches. Using this analytical tool, we present new findings for a better understanding of some tactical and operational issues. We show that flow of material in small procurement sizes smoothes flow of information within the system, but also necessitates more frequent shipments between stages, raising the risk of late delivery. Balancing the risk of information delays vis‐à‐vis shipment delays is critical for the success of two‐card kanban systems. Although product variety causes time wasted in setup operations, it also facilitates relatively short production cycles enabling processors to switch from one product type to another more rapidly. The latter point is crucial especially in high‐demand environments. Increasing production line size prevents quick response to customer demand, but it may improve system performance if the vendor lead‐time is long or subject to high variation. Finally, variability in transportation and processing times causes the most damage if it arises at stages closer to the customer. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Quantifying the performance effects of idle time utilization in multiserver systems

In many practical multiserver queueing systems, servers not only serve randomly arriving customers but also work on the secondary jobs with infinite backlog during their idle time. In this paper, we propose a c‐server model with a two‐threshold policy, denoted by (e d), to evaluate the performance of this class of systems. With such a policy, when the number of idle servers has reached d (<c), then e (<d) idle agents will process secondary jobs. These e servers keep working on the secondary jobs until they find waiting customers exist in the system at a secondary job completion instant. Using the matrix analytic method, we obtain the stationary performance measures for evaluating different (e, d) policies. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

Managing components for assemble‐to‐order products with lead‐time‐dependent pricing: The full‐shipment model

We study a component inventory planning problem in an assemble‐to‐order environment faced by many contract manufacturers in which both quick delivery and efficient management of component inventory are crucial for the manufacturers to achieve profitability in a highly competitive market. Extending a recent study in a similar problem setting by the same authors, we analyze an optimization model for determining the optimal component stocking decision for a contract manufacturer facing an uncertain future demand, where product price depends on the delivery times. In contrast to our earlier work, this paper considers the situation where the contract manufacturer needs to deliver the full order quantity in one single shipment. This delivery requirement is appropriate for many industries, such as the garment and toy industries, where the economies of scale in transportation is essential. We develop efficient solution procedures for solving this optimization problem. We use our model results to illustrate how the different model parameters affect the optimal solution. We also compare the results under this full‐shipment model with those from our earlier work that allows for multiple partial shipments. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Puzzle‐based storage systems

We introduce and develop models for a physical goods storage system based on the 15‐puzzle, a classic children's game in which 15 numbered tiles slide within a 4 × 4 grid. The objective of the game is to arrange the tiles in numerical sequence, starting from a random arrangement. For our purposes, the tiles represent totes, pallets, or even containers that must be stored very densely, and the objective is to maneuver items to an input–output point for retrieval or processing. We develop analytical results for storage configurations having a single empty location (as in the game) and experimental results for configurations with multiple empty locations. Designs with many empty locations can be made to form aisles, allowing us to compare puzzle‐based designs with traditional aisle‐based designs found in warehousing systems. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Probabilistic solution and bounds for serial inventory systems with discounted and average costs

We consider the infinite horizon serial inventory system with both average cost and discounted cost criteria. The optimal echelon base‐stock levels are obtained in terms of only probability distributions of leadtime demands. This analysis yields a novel approach for developing bounds and heuristics for optimal inventory control polices. In addition to deriving the known bounds in literature, we develop several new upper bounds for both average cost and discounted cost models. Numerical studies show that the bounds and heuristic are very close to optimal.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Untruthful probabilistic demand forecasts in vendor‐managed revenue‐sharing contracts: Coordinating the chain

Vendor‐managed revenue‐sharing arrangements are common in the newspaper and other industries. Under such arrangements, the supplier decides on the level of inventory while the retailer effectively operates under consignment, sharing the sales revenue with his supplier. We consider the case where the supplier is unable to predict demand, and must base her decisions on the retailer‐supplied probabilistic forecast for demand. We show that the retailer's best choice of a distribution to report to his supplier will not be the true demand distribution, but instead will be a degenerate distribution that surprisingly induces the supplier to provide the system‐optimal inventory quantity. (To maintain credibility, the retailer's reports of daily sales must then be consistent with his supplied forecast.) This result is robust under nonlinear production costs and nonlinear revenue‐sharing. However, if the retailer does not know the supplier's production cost, the forecast “improves” and could even be truthful. That, however, causes the supplier's order quantity to be suboptimal for the overall system. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Production to order and off‐line inspection when the production process is partially observable

This study combines inspection and lot‐sizing decisions. The issue is whether to INSPECT another unit or PRODUCE a new lot. A unit produced is either conforming or defective. Demand need to be satisfied in full, by conforming units only. The production process may switch from a “good” state to a “bad” state, at constant rate. The proportion of conforming units in the good state is higher than in the bad state. The true state is unobservable and can only be inferred from the quality of units inspected. We thus update, after each inspection, the probability that the unit, next candidate for inspection, was produced while the production process was in the good state. That “good‐state‐probability” is the basis for our decision to INSPECT or PRODUCE. We prove that the optimal policy has a simple form: INSPECT only if the good‐state‐probability exceeds a control limit. We provide a methodology to calculate the optimal lot size and the expected costs associated with INSPECT and PRODUCE. Surprisingly, we find that the control limit, as a function of the demand (and other problem parameters) is not necessarily monotone. Also, counter to intuition, it is possible that the optimal action is PRODUCE, after revealing a conforming unit. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Kurtosis correction method for X̄ and R control charts for long‐tailed symmetrical distributions

This paper proposes a kurtosis correction (KC) method for constructing the X? and R control charts for symmetrical long‐tailed (leptokurtic) distributions. The control charts are similar to the Shewhart control charts and are very easy to use. The control limits are derived based on the degree of kurtosis estimated from the actual (subgroup) data. It is assumed that the underlying quality characteristic is symmetrically distributed and no other distributional and/or parameter assumptions are made. The control chart constants are tabulated and the performance of these charts is compared with that of the Shewhart control charts. For the case of the logistic distribution, the exact control limits are derived and are compared with the KC method and the Shewhart method. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

用毁伤概率指标优化二点源诱饵系统布阵

两点源诱偏系统是应用有源干扰的方式,利用反辐射导弹(ARM)本身的缺陷来对反辐射导弹的导引头进行干扰,从而达到保护主战雷达目的的一种有源干扰系统。主要从反辐射导弹的基本原理和有源诱偏的概念入手,对两点源诱偏系统进行理论推导、数学建模、布站设想,后引入毁伤概率指标对各种布站方式进行分类、仿真,对每一种仿真结果进行分析、评估,再把各种分析结果加以比较,从中找出最佳的布站方式。最后利用以上的分析结果,得出几点有用的结论。     

基于冗余的复杂体系动态适应性结构设计研究

针对复杂体系动态适应性研究所存在的问题,提出了复杂体系冗余概念和基于冗余的复杂体系动态适应性结构设计思想,讨论了基于冗余的复杂体系动态博弈设计过程及体系结构;在此基础上,根据复杂体系使命目标的执行特点及体系本身的结构特性,详细地阐述了复杂体系中的任务冗余、系统冗余和结构冗余三种冗余类型,并从冗余切换方式、冗余具体内容和冗余表现性质三个方面论述了复杂体系中各种冗余所组成的冗余体系,指出冗余体系是复杂体系适应环境的一种策略,也是复杂体系不断演化的需要和结果,并且能够为复杂体系动态适应性结构的构建及其效能评估和复杂体系的优化及改进等研究提供一定的理论指导。