Comparison between constant‐stress and step‐stress accelerated life tests under Time Constraint

By running life tests at higher stress levels than normal operating conditions, accelerated life testing (ALT) quickly yields information on the lifetime distribution of a test unit. The lifetime at the design stress is then estimated through extrapolation using a regression model. In constant‐stress testing, a unit is tested at a fixed stress level until failure or the termination time point of test, whereas step‐stress testing allows the experimenter to gradually increase the stress levels at some prefixed time points during the test. In this work, the optimal k‐level constant‐stress and step‐stress ALTs are compared for the exponential failure data under complete sampling and Type‐I censoring. The objective is to quantify the advantage of using the step‐stress testing relative to the constant‐stress one. Assuming a log‐linear life–stress relationship with the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress in step‐stress testing, the optimal design points are determined under C/D/A‐optimality criteria. The efficiency of step‐stress testing to constant‐stress one is then discussed in terms of the ratio of optimal objective functions based on the information matrix. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 00: 000–000, 2013     

The effect of catastrophes on the strategic customer behavior in queueing systems

We consider the single server Markovian queue subject to Poisson generated catastrophes. Whenever a catastrophe occurs, all customers are forced to abandon the system, the server is rendered inoperative and an exponential repair time is set on. During the repair time new arrivals are allowed to join the system. We assume that the arriving customers decide whether to join the system or balk, based on a natural linear reward‐cost structure with two types of rewards: A (usual) service reward for those customers that receive service and a (compensation) failure reward for those customers that are forced to abandon the system due to a catastrophe. We study the strategic behavior of the customers regarding balking and derive the corresponding (Nash) equilibrium strategies for the observable and unobservable cases. We show that both types of strategic behavior may be optimal: to avoid the crowd or to follow it. The crucial factor that determines the type of customer behavior is the relative value of the service reward to the failure compensation. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

目标毁伤效果评估技术研究进展

目标毁伤效果评估作为目标保障的一项重要内容,对精确打击作战情报保障起到了核心作用,是现代精确打击体系的一个重要环节和关键步骤。文章从评估方法、评估模型和评估系统三个方面入手,梳理了国内外目标毁伤效果评估技术的最新研究进展,并对目前各类评估方法、模型及系统的优缺点分别进行了评述。最后,指出了该领域今后的研究方向。     

海军装备体系技术构成探析

在剖析海军装备体系与体系技术概念的基础上,分析了海军装备体系技术的特点与作用,提出了海军装备体系技术的基本构成,为海军装备体系技术的应用研究提供理论指导。     

加强海军航空军械器材信息化建设的对策研究

面对现代空战时域、空域广阔,发生时机不确定性强,航空军械装备战损消耗大的局面,为达到海军航空军械器材保障"快速反应"和"精确保障"目的,必须进一步加强海军航空军械器材信息化建设的研究。首先从总体上规划了海军航空军械器材信息管理系统功能;然后研究了信息化管理的主要技术;最后,提出推行海军航空军械器材"全资可视化"管理,为海军航空军械器材信息化保障提供了一种建设思路和技术指导。     

基于影响图方法的信息战模型

由于粒子滤波的算法原理,其计算量很大。研究了针对机动目标的交互式多模型粒子滤波器(IMMPF)算法和多速率交互式多模型(MRIMM)算法,提出了多速率交互式多模型粒子滤波器(MRIMMPF)算法。该算法是在交互式多模型粒子滤波器(IMMPF)的基础上引入多速率技术,期望在保持IMMPF的性能同时能够减少因为粒子滤波带来的计算量;最后通过和一般基于EKF的IMM算法、IMMPF算法的比较,验证了该算法的有效性。     

Determination of burn‐in parameters and residual life for highly reliable products

Today, many products are designed and manufactured to function for a long period of time before they fail. Determining product reliability is a great challenge to manufacturers of highly reliable products with only a relatively short period of time available for internal life testing. In particular, it may be difficult to determine optimal burn‐in parameters and characterize the residual life distribution. A promising alternative is to use data on a quality characteristic (QC) whose degradation over time can be related to product failure. Typically, product failure corresponds to the first passage time of the degradation path beyond a critical value. If degradation paths can be modeled properly, one can predict failure time and determine the life distribution without actually observing failures. In this paper, we first use a Wiener process to describe the continuous degradation path of the quality characteristic of the product. A Wiener process allows nonconstant variance and nonzero correlation among data collected at different time points. We propose a decision rule for classifying a unit as normal or weak, and give an economic model for determining the optimal termination time and other parameters of a burn‐in test. Next, we propose a method for assessing the product's lifetime distribution of the passed units. The proposed methodologies are all based only on the product's initial observed degradation data. Finally, an example of an electronic product, namely contact image scanner (CIS), is used to illustrate the proposed procedure. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

A general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes and conditions for system burn‐in

Burn‐in is a technique to enhance reliability by eliminating weak items from a population of items having heterogeneous lifetimes. System burn‐in can improve system reliability, but the conditions for system burn‐in to be performed after component burn‐in remain a little understood mathematical challenge. To derive such conditions, we first introduce a general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes, in which the component burn‐in information and assembly problems are related to the prediction of system burn‐in. Many existing system burn‐in models become special cases and two important results are identified. First, heterogeneous system lifetimes can be understood naturally as a consequence of heterogeneous component lifetimes and heterogeneous assembly quality. Second, system burn‐in is effective if assembly quality variation in the components and connections which are arranged in series is greater than a threshold, where the threshold depends on the system structure and component failure rates. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 364–380, 2003.     

通用武器装备供应系统设计中的硬、软系统方法整合研究

分析了硬、软系统方法应用的异同点,研究了将硬、软系统方法整合起来处理通用装备供应系统设计的问题,最后提出了系统设计的框架。     

车辆悬挂系统的主动优化控制器设计及仿真

基于特征结构配置参数化结果,提出了车辆悬挂系统的主动优化控制器设计方法。该方法直接基于车辆悬挂系统的参数矩阵,便于工程应用。车辆悬挂系统的仿真实例表明所提主动优化控制器设计方法简单且有效。