水顶油顺序输送油水混合模型研究

顺序输送是利用一条管道输送多种油品,因其可最大限度发挥管道输送潜能而被广泛应用。按照前后行液体不同可分为水顶油、油顶水和不同油品间顺序输送等,其中水顶油顺序输送主要用于管道撤收前的排空作业。对水顶油顺序输送油水混合过程进行了分析,建立了油水混合模型,利用CFD对其进行数值求解,并将仿真结果与前期理论分析进行了对比,两者吻合较好。所得结论可为机动管线水顶油排空作业提供科学指导。     

飞行器试验多测控目标发射零点应急处理方法

飞行器飞行试验任务中,发射零点T0是整个测控系统启动运行的基准点,是保证测控系统有条不紊正常工作的关键因素。特别是执行多个测控目标连射飞行试验任务,多个发射零点的正确处理更是关乎试验任务的成败。在分析发射零点形成机制基础上,对发射零点在指控系统实时测控软件中的处理方法进行了研究,提出了一种实时测控软件重启后重新获得多测控目标正确发射零点的应急处理方法,解决了试验过程中一旦实时测控软件因重大软件故障导致初始发射零点丢失的问题,保障了试验任务的顺利进行。     

一种舰载多武器火力兼容优先级控制模型和方法

分析了美海军先进驱逐舰的武器配置,给出了舰载两两武器间动态火力散布体交叉的时空模型,提出了一种舰载多武器火力兼容优先级控制数学模型,并给出计算实例。     

Single batch machine scheduling with deliveries

We consider the problem of scheduling a set of n jobs on a single batch machine, where several jobs can be processed simultaneously. Each job j has a processing time p_j and a size s_j. All jobs are available for processing at time 0. The batch machine has a capacity D. Several jobs can be batched together and processed simultaneously, provided that the total size of the jobs in the batch does not exceed D. The processing time of a batch is the largest processing time among all jobs in the batch. There is a single vehicle available for delivery of the finished products to the customer, and the vehicle has capacity K. We assume that K = rD, where and r is an integer. The travel time of the vehicle is T; that is, T is the time from the manufacturer to the customer. Our goal is to find a schedule of the jobs and a delivery plan so that the service span is minimized, where the service span is the time that the last job is delivered to the customer. We show that if the jobs have identical sizes, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is minimum. If the jobs have identical processing times, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is asymptotically at most 11/9 times the optimal service span. When the jobs have arbitrary processing times and arbitrary sizes, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is asymptotically at most twice the optimal service span. We also derive upper bounds of the absolute worst‐case ratios in both cases. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 470–482, 2015     

Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

A sequential scheduling problem with impatient jobs

There are n customers that need to be served. Customer i will only wait in queue for an exponentially distributed time with rate λ_i before departing the system. The service time of customer i has distribution F_i, and on completion of service of customer i a positive reward r_i is earned. There is a single server and the problem is to choose, after each service completion, which currently in queue customer to serve next so as to maximize the expected total return. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 659–663, 2015     

高超声速飞行器新息滤波交互式多模型跟踪算法

研究临近空间高超声速飞行器在运动特点,针对强杂波环境下高速、高机动目标跟踪问题,提出用新息滤波减小观测噪声以修正模型概率更新过程的算法。Monte-Carlo仿真结果表明:该算法可以有效减小量测噪声对系统滤波的影响,提高滤波精度,在临近空间强杂波环境下具有较好的跟踪精度,具有一定工程实用价值。     

面向任务的有人机/无人机协同对地攻击概率模型

有人机/无人机协同对地攻击是未来空对地打击的主要作战样式,如何评估其协同作战的效能是军地双方共同面对的重要课题。首先根据完成对地攻击任务的4个环节建立了对地攻击的总概率模型;然后基于桥联模型建立了各个环节的概率模型;最后给出了一架有人机协同两架无人机对地攻击的算例,并对模型反算、协同与非协同对比以及多波次攻击等问题进行了讨论和分析,验证了模型良好可用性和广泛适用性。     

面向应急管理计算实验的模型构建和模型管理

基于人工社会的计算实验使应急管理的定量分析与研究成为可能。然而,应急管理模型涉及多个学科与领域,具有多层次、非线性和多粒度等特点,需要一套规范的流程来指导人工社会的模型建立和模型管理。论文梳理了面向应急管理的模型体系,提出了基于领域特定建模的人工社会建模方法,解决了多领域建模问题;研究了模型的形式化描述与编码问题,并实现了模型的有效管理;结合"甲型H1N1"病程模型,详细论述了模型的构建方法与管理问题,为面向应急管理的计算实验提供一体化的模型服务。     

基于WBS的装备作战需求联合论证任务流程设计方法

针对装备作战需求联合论证中任务分解与协同困难的问题,以构建融合业务活动与管理活动的集成论证活动为目标,提出了基于WBS的装备作战需求论证活动分解方法,分析了装备作战需求论证活动分解的原理、原则和活动表示方法,研究了业务活动与管理活动的WBS分解过程,研究了业务活动与管理活动的集成方法和协同分析方法,初步构建了基于WBS的装备作战需求联合论证任务流程模型,为进一步优化和调整装备作战需求论证流程、提高论证工作效率和成果质量提供了新的方法。