近似推理在水雷参数分析专家系统中的应用

为了尽快分析出未知水雷障碍参数,根据水雷战的特点,提出了建立未知水雷障碍参数分析专家系统的观点,对专家系统的设计方法进行了一定的探讨,并针对专家系统建立中的"瓶颈"问题,提出了基于Vague集插值近似推理的专家系统知识自动获取方法,在介绍推理过程的基础上给出了算例.从推理的结果来看,该方法具有较高的可信度,从而为专家系统的研制提供了一定的方法支持.     

自适应交互多模型算法在机动目标跟踪中的应用

针对多模型算法在机动目标跟踪中存在的问题,运用交互多模型算法(IMM)和自适应滤波理论,设计了一种自适应交互多模型算法(AIMM),结合目标运动模型对目标当前加速度和其方差进行估计,并在此基础上给出了AIMM中模型集和模型转移概率的设计方法,进行了计算机仿真.蒙特卡罗仿真结果表明,与标准IMM算法相比,该算法比IMM算法的跟踪性能有很大提高,跟踪复杂机动目标比IMM有更快的收敛速度,跟踪滞后问题得到较好的解决,跟踪目标的稳定性和精确性均优于IMM算法,有利于机动目标的实时跟踪.     

基于多属性决策方法的防空C3I系统效能评估

介绍了防空C3I系统效能的定义及效能评估的一般处理过程.针对效能指标的多样性,提出了基于多属性决策(MADM)的效能评估方法,并通过一个示例给出MADM方法的处理过程,有效地解决了防空C3I系统效能评估这一复杂而困难的问题,仿真结果证明了方法的可行性.     

Experimental study on explosion dispersion process of a multi-layer composite charge under different initiation modes

The influence of initiation modes on the explosive dispersion process of the multi-layer composite charge (MCC) was studied. Overpressure sensors and high-speed photography system were used to investigate the energy release process of an MCC with a specific structure. The shock wave pressure and explosive dispersion characteristics of the MCC under different initiation modes were compared. The forming and expanding process of the shock wave of the composite charge under different initiation modes was determined. The separation position of the shock wave and fireball interface was determined. The calculation formulas of the shock radius and overpressure of the composite charge are presented. The radius of the shock wave of the composite charge was significantly affected by the initiation mode. Moreover, the development process of the composite explosive fireball under different initiation modes was analyzed, the variation rules of the composite charge dispersion radius and fireball dispersion velocity with time were obtained under the different initiation modes, the explosion energy release rate of composite charge under simultaneous initiation modes was the highest, and the peak overpressure under the simultaneous initiation mode was 1.61 times that of central single-point initiation.     

A novel noise reduction technique for underwater acoustic signals based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise,minimum mean square variance criterion and least mean square adaptive filter

Underwater acoustic signal processing is one of the research hotspots in underwater acoustics. Noise reduction of underwater acoustic signals is the key to underwater acoustic signal processing. Owing to the complexity of marine environment and the particularity of underwater acoustic channel, noise reduction of underwater acoustic signals has always been a difficult challenge in the field of underwater acoustic signal processing. In order to solve the dilemma, we proposed a novel noise reduction technique for underwater acoustic signals based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), minimum mean square variance criterion (MMSVC) and least mean square adaptive filter (LMSAF). This noise reduction technique, named CEEMDAN-MMSVC-LMSAF, has three main advantages: (i) as an improved algorithm of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and ensemble EMD (EEMD), CEEMDAN can better suppress mode mixing, and can avoid selecting the number of decomposition in variational mode decomposition (VMD); (ii) MMSVC can identify noisy intrinsic mode function (IMF), and can avoid selecting thresholds of different permutation entropies; (iii) for noise reduction of noisy IMFs, LMSAF overcomes the selection of decomposition number and basis function for wavelet noise reduction. Firstly, CEEMDAN decomposes the original signal into IMFs, which can be divided into noisy IMFs and real IMFs. Then, MMSVC and LMSAF are used to detect identify noisy IMFs and remove noise components from noisy IMFs. Finally, both denoised noisy IMFs and real IMFs are reconstructed and the final denoised signal is obtained. Compared with other noise reduction techniques, the validity of CEEMDAN-MMSVC-LMSAF can be proved by the analysis of simulation signals and real underwater acoustic signals, which has the better noise reduction effect and has practical application value. CEEMDAN-MMSVC-LMSAF also provides a reliable basis for the detection, feature extraction, classification and recognition of underwater acoustic signals.     

Pricing and capacity allocation strategies: Implications for manufacturers with product sharing

Emerging sharing modes, like the consumer-to-consumer (C2C) sharing of Uber and the business-to-consumer (B2C) sharing of GoFun, have considerably affected the retailing markets of traditional manufacturers, who are motivated to consider product sharing when making pricing and capacity decisions, particularly electric car manufacturers with limited capacity. In this paper, we examine the equilibrium pricing for a capacity-constrained manufacturer under various sharing modes and further analyze the impact of capacity constraint on the manufacturer's sharing mode selection as well as equilibrium outcomes. We find that manufacturers with low-cost products prefer B2C sharing while those with high-cost products prefer C2C sharing except when the sharing price is moderate. However, limited capacity motivates manufacturers to enter into the B2C sharing under a relatively low sharing price, and raise the total usage level by sharing high-cost products. We also show that the equilibrium capacity allocated to the sharing market with low-cost products first increases and then decreases. Finally, we find that sharing low-cost products with a high limited capacity leads to a lower retail price under B2C sharing, which creates a win-win situation for both the manufacturer and consumers. However, sharing high-cost products with a low limited capacity creates a win-lose situation for them.     

Optimal redesign decisions through failure rate estimates

To reduce the time-to-market of newly developed systems, manufacturers increasingly adopt strategies where systems are brought to market while system field reliability is still uncertain. These systems are typically sold under performance-based contracts, which incentivizes potential customers to invest in them despite reliability uncertainty. Such contracts make the manufacturer (partly) responsible for the availability of the system. Subsequently, when field reliability is lower than anticipated, the manufacturer may choose to redesign the system to avoid high contract penalties. Redesign is a costly effort which may substantially increase field reliability. Deciding when to redesign is challenging, especially because the initial failure rate estimate by the system's engineers is refined over time as failure data accrues. We propose a model that endogenizes the failure rate updating to analyze this tactical redesign decision. We study additive and multiplicative redesigns and show that the optimal policy has a control limit structure. We benchmark our optimal policy against a static counterpart numerically, and conclude that basing redesign decisions on the updated estimate of the failure rate can substantially reduce costs.     

温度对半导体激光器退化的影响

采取等效电路模型仿真和加速退化试验相结合的方法研究温度对半导体激光器不同退化模式的影响规律。针对半导体激光器有源区退化和腔面退化进行分析,发现有源区退化会使半导体激光器阈值电流增大,而腔面退化会使半导体激光器斜率效率减小;进行了半导体激光器热特性建模与仿真,发现温度升高会使半导体激光器阈值电流增大;利用半导体激光器加速退化试验平台进行了半导体激光器加速退化试验。仿真与试验结果证明:温度升高会加剧半导体激光器腔面退化,而对有源区退化无显著影响。上述结论对进一步完善半导体激光器温度-退化仿真模型,研究温度对半导体激光器退化的作用机理和防护措施有积极作用。     

GSVM:一种支持Gather/Scatter的向量存储器

宽单指令多数据流(Single Instruction Multiple Data, SIMD)架构数字信号处理器一般都能高效支持地址连续或等距跨步等规则应用的向量访存,但对于科学与工程计算中广泛存在的不规则应用的数据访存则带宽利用率往往较低,从而大幅降低了其整体运算能效。为了提高不规则应用的向量访存性能,基于某SIMD数字信号处理器的体系结构,设计了一种支持Gather/Scatter访存的向量存储器GSVM。通过设计与SIMD宽度相匹配的向量地址计算单元和合适深度的冲突缓冲器阵列,实现了Gather/Scatter指令向量地址计算、仲裁与缓存的全流水访存操作。实验结果表明,相比以前不支持Gather/Scatter访存的存储器,GSVM在增加22%的硬件代价基础上,基于稀疏矩阵向量乘的测试程序集获得了2～8的性能加速比。     

失效概率函数求解的高效算法

结合基于分数矩约束的极大熵方法和替代模型法,发展了一种失效概率函数求解的高效算法。所提算法的基本思路是利用自主学习的迭代Kriging方法来构造失效概率函数,即采用较少的训练样本来构造粗糙的失效概率函数,在此基础上通过添加新的违反学习函数约束的样本来更新失效概率函数,直到达到精度要求。对于每一个分布参数的训练样本点,所提方法采用分数矩约束的极大熵法来求解相应的失效概率样本。由于分数矩的计算采用了高效的降维积分,并且由于分数矩约束下极大熵法中优化策略高效地逼近了响应的概率密度函数,从而使得失效概率样本能够被高效高精度地估计出来。为了检验所提方法的精度及效率,给出了两个算例,对比了所提方法与已有的失效概率函数求解的Bayes公式法及Monte Carlo法等,结果表明,所提方法适用于求解复杂的功能函数问题,且在满足精度要求的基础上大大降低了计算量。