基于逐步回归法的潜艇高空磁场仿真

应用目前磁场换算中较多使用的磁荷模拟法对潜艇高空磁场进行了仿真,为了尽量减少磁荷的位置及大小受人为经验的影响,且提高换算精度,采用逐步回归法对各模拟磁荷的磁矩进行筛选,最后对潜艇高空磁场进行了计算机仿真.仿真结果表明,该方法精度比较高,而且模型的稳定性好,对实际防空中磁探具有重要的意义.     

多属性决策中的线性组合赋权方法研究

权向量的确定是多属性决策中一个重要问题,线性组合赋权方法是解决该问题的一个有效途径。对线性组合赋权的求解问题进行了一般性的描述,并根据求解所用信息的不同将求解方法分为四类,阐述了每类方法常用的求解思路和原则,进一步分析了不同类别方法的特点。对求解方法进行分类,有利于对不同求解方法本质和特性的了解,可以为不同组合赋权方法的应用提供参考。     

脉冲末修弹落点预测导引方法研究

在分析剩余射程影响因素的基础上,以弹道特征参数弹道高y及速度矢量分量Vx和Vy为解释变量,以回归分析方法为数学工具,建立脉冲末修弹剩余射程预测模型。以目标点与弹丸预测落点之间的差值为广义弹道偏差,结合数值仿真,对落点预测导引进行深入研究,验证了回归分析模型的可行性。     

大功率IGBT器件及其组合多时间尺度动力学表征研究综述

在提出电力电子器件及其组合多时间尺度动力学表征需求的前提下,以目前常用的全控型电力电子器件——绝缘栅双极晶体管(Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor,IGBT)为例,系统分析并归纳了目前在IGBT及其组合多时间尺度动力学表征研究方面的进展和成果,包括作为基础的大功率IGBT及其组合多时间尺度电热瞬态建模方法、基于模型的大功率IGBT模块失效量化表征方法以及用于辅助分析的IGBT组合多速率仿真方法。此外,介绍了基于IGBT多时间尺度模型的装置应用设计案例。从建模方法、可靠性评估、仿真手段以及应用设计四个方面系统全面地阐述了大功率IGBT及其组合多时间尺度的动力学表征方法,可为电力电子混杂系统的精确设计提供电力电子器件层面的理论和技术支撑。     

装备战场损伤的解析分析方法研究

为了提高装备战损模拟的效率,以蒙特卡洛方法为基础,构建了关于装备战损的解析模型。首先采用序贯法优化了仿真次数,以便以较少的仿真次数获得较高的仿真精度;分析了单因素对于装备损伤的影响,并建立了一元回归模型;采用正交试验分析了多因素之间的交互作用,并综合一元回归模型得出了装备战损的多元回归模型;最后结合弹着点分布模型与多元回归模型,建立了装备战损的解析模型,并通过实例验证了解析模型的正确性。     

Replicated batch means for steady‐state simulations

This paper studies a new steady‐state simulation output analysis method called replicated batch means in which a small number of replications are conducted and the observations in these replications are grouped into batches. This paper also introduces and compares methods for selecting the initial state of each replication. More specifically, we show that confidence intervals constructed by the replicated batch means method are valid for large batch sizes and derive expressions for the expected values and variances of the steady‐state mean and variance estimators for stationary processes and large sample sizes. We then use these expressions, analytical examples, and numerical experiments to compare the replicated batch means method with the standard batch means and multiple replications methods. The numerical results, which are obtained from an AR(1) process and a small, nearly‐decomposable Markov chain, show that the multiple replications method often gives confidence intervals with poorer coverage than the standard and replicated batch means methods and that the replicated batch means method, implemented with good choices of initialization method and number of replications, provides confidence interval coverages that range from being comparable with to being noticeably better than coverages obtained by the standard batch means method. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

近程反导中拦阻射击模式和多重命中体制研究

在近程反导中,片面强调提高高炮随动系统的跟踪瞄准速度,已经不现实,通过对拦阻射击模式的研究,探讨了采用多重命中体制弥补随动系统缺陷的可行性。     

新型多目标遗传算法及其在导弹射击效能优化中的应用

多目标规划是一类重要的优化模型,有着广泛的实际应用,但其求解至今仍是运筹学的一个难点.针对一般约束多目标优化问题,在设计了新的适应度函数和选择算子的基础上,提出一种新型多目标遗传算法.将其应用于导弹对集群目标射击效能优化问题,验证了算法的有效性.     

Comparison between constant‐stress and step‐stress accelerated life tests under Time Constraint

By running life tests at higher stress levels than normal operating conditions, accelerated life testing (ALT) quickly yields information on the lifetime distribution of a test unit. The lifetime at the design stress is then estimated through extrapolation using a regression model. In constant‐stress testing, a unit is tested at a fixed stress level until failure or the termination time point of test, whereas step‐stress testing allows the experimenter to gradually increase the stress levels at some prefixed time points during the test. In this work, the optimal k‐level constant‐stress and step‐stress ALTs are compared for the exponential failure data under complete sampling and Type‐I censoring. The objective is to quantify the advantage of using the step‐stress testing relative to the constant‐stress one. Assuming a log‐linear life–stress relationship with the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress in step‐stress testing, the optimal design points are determined under C/D/A‐optimality criteria. The efficiency of step‐stress testing to constant‐stress one is then discussed in terms of the ratio of optimal objective functions based on the information matrix. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 00: 000–000, 2013     

CS模型下IMM-PF算法在机动目标跟踪中的应用

为了解决机动目标定位跟踪问题,提出了一种基于CS(current statistical)模型的交互式多模型粒子滤波算法.在交互式多模型粒子滤波算法的基础上,计算CS模型的概率,自适应地调整CS模型中的目标加速度,反映出了目标的机动特性,充分发挥2种算法的优点,改善了CS模型的加速度不能自适应调整的缺点,提高了CS模型的自适应性和应用范围.另外,CS模型的自适应滤波方法由Kalman滤波改为粒子滤波.通过Monte Carlo对比仿真试验表明了该算法的可行性和优越性.