Making long-range planning work: the case of the US Army's 30-year strategic modernization plan

The extensive timespan of evolving assumptions about future adversaries, US military engagements, and technology inherent in the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy can overwhelm the management capacity of planners, and misdirect acquisition investments. Some military scholars have argued that long-range planning is futile due to the complexities of the global security environment. So how can the US Army manage the evolving assumptions inherent in its 30-year modernization strategy to ensure it remains a superior global force? This study will answer the above question by arguing that the US Army's 30-year modernization strategy, while emulative of a similar modernization approach in the threat-based planning environment of the Cold War, is viable if supported by a method and a tool that manage investments and planning assumptions.     

The contexts of strategy as a guide for defense planning in the Philippines

Efforts toward developing an independent and credible Philippine defense policy were revived when Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III was elected President of the Philippines in 2010. President Aquino renewed the military modernization program in 2012 and emphasized the necessity of a “minimum credible defense posture.” Given the modernization efforts of the government, this article aims to contribute to the development of the concept of minimum credible defense posture by exploring how theory contributes to defense planning. It argues that the contexts of strategy are useful in planning for national defense because these contexts can provide a conceptual framework for defense planners. It proceeds in three parts: the opening section reviews the literature on defense planning; the second surveys the context of developing strategies as discussed in the General Theory of Strategy; and the last provides a definition of minimum credible defense and applies the context of developing strategies to the case of the Philippines.     

驻城市部队营区训练场规划探析

在快速推进城镇化建设的背景下,驻城市部队营区训练场面临着场地缺乏拓展空间、训练存有安全隐患和受到地方活动干扰等困境。针对这一客观现实,提出了以下对策:协调训练场规划与城市规划;从用地规模、场地布局、功能整合等方面增强训练场规划的针对性;提高营区训练场规划的专业性。规划者应梳理城市与营区训练场发展的客观规律,使营区训练场发挥其应有的作用。     

面向通信信号调制识别的半监督生成对抗网络框架

针对只有少量标签数据的弱监督条件下现有调制信号识别模型准确率较低的问题,提出基于生成对抗网络的半监督学习框架。该方法通过对通信信号进行冗余空域变换,使其在适应生成对抗网络模型的同时保留丰富的信号相邻特征;通过梯度惩罚Wasserstein生成对抗网络的引入,构建适宜电磁信号处理的半监督学习框架,实现对无标签信号样本的有效利用。为了验证所提算法的有效性,在RADIOML 2016.04C数据集上进行测试。实验结果表明,该方法在半监督条件下能训练出高效的分类器,获得优异的调制识别结果。     

多基准站相对定位算法及先验基线向量偏差影响分析

为提高单基准站短基线相对定位解算的可靠性,研究了多基准站约束的相对定位算法。将基准站间可提前测量的先验基线信息融入观测模型中,给出了多基准站相对定位的函数模型和随机模型,在此基础上推导了模糊度精度因子的解析表达式,揭示了基准站数量的增加对模糊度浮点解精度提升的作用;从理论上分析了基准站间先验基线信息中的偏差对模糊度解算的影响,分析表明,当先验基线各分量偏差的绝对值之和小于5 cm时,模糊度解算几乎不受影响;通过仿真和实测数据进行了验证。试验结果表明,增加基准站数量不仅能有效提升模糊度解算成功率和收敛速度,并且对先验基线信息中的偏差具有较好的抑制作用,当基线各分量偏差均增加到4 cm时,实测数据模糊度解算成功率仍能达到92%以上。研究结论为特殊场景下多基准站间的快速非精确标定提供了理论依据。     

提取时间对硝基油漆稀料燃烧产物鉴定的影响

油漆稀料是一种常见的助燃剂,提取时间对其燃烧产物的鉴定会有一定的影响。选取了纯毛织品作为实验载体,以硝基油漆稀料为研究对象,对燃烧残留物及燃烧烟尘进行了系统的GC-MS分析,找出了纯样和加载油漆稀料后燃烧产物主要成分的变化规律,对样品中目标化合物的相对峰面积随燃烧产物提取时间的变化曲线进行了非线性数学分析,初步找出了样品燃烧产物的相对峰面积随硝基油漆稀料燃烧产物提取时间变化的规律,为合理选择物证的提取时间提出了建议。     

全面深化改革必须立足于“最大取灭实际”

坚持和发展中国特色社会主义,全面建成小康社会,离不开社会主义初级阶段这个最大实际。同样,全面深化改革,实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦,也离不开当前中国的“最大实际”。我们必须坚持“最大实际”的社会主义原则,必须把握“最大实际”的崭新成就基础,必须注重“最大实际”的时代诉求,在新的历史起点上全面深化改革。     

基于MADM组合赋权的防空武器系统机动能力评估

针对防空武器系统机动能力评估问题不确定多属性决策的特点,提出一种基于MADM组合赋权的武器系统机动能力评估方法。构建了防空武器系统机动能力评估指标体系,给出了指标权重不相容情况下如何寻找并剔除疵点权重的方法。在此基础上,建立了一种基于区间估计解决武器系统机动能力评估问题的数学模型。最后通过实例分析验证,该方法评估结果准确,能有效减小误差,对指挥员科学决策具有一定的参考价值。     

Is the Indian Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes?

Sixteen years after stepping out of the nuclear closet, India's nuclear posture, some of its operational practices, and hardware developments are beginning to mimic those of the original five nuclear weapon states. Several proliferation scholars in the United States contend that India's national security managers are poised to repeat the worst mistakes of the superpowers’ Cold War nuclear competition, with negative consequences for deterrence, crisis, and stability in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. This article takes a contrarian view. It dissects the best available data to show why the alarmist view is overstated. It argues that not only are the alarmists’ claims unsupported by evidence, their interpretation of the skeletal and often contradictory data threatens to construct the very threat they prophesize.     

无线传感器网络动态汇聚节点调度算法研究

移动汇聚节点调度是传感器网络中一个新的研究热点.通过建立一个普适的多目标优化模型,提出了贴近实际的汇聚节点循环路径规划模型,采用以连续时间离散化为理论基础的时域-空域转化方法,将时域中的优化模型无损地转至空域中,从而大大减少了所涉及的变量数量,降低了求解的复杂度.通过实验可以看出,调度移动汇聚节点可以有效扩展网络的生命周期.