Optimal production ramp-up in the smartphone manufacturing industry

Motivated by challenges in the smartphone manufacturing industry, we develop a dynamic production ramp-up model that can be applied to economically satisfy nonstationary demand for short-life-cycle products by high-tech companies. Due to shorter life cycles and more rapid evolution of smartphones, production ramp-up has been increasingly critical to the success of a new smartphone. In the production ramp-up, the key challenge is to match the increasing capacity to nonstationary demand. The high-tech smartphone manufacturers are urged to jointly consider the effect of increasing capacity and decreasing demand. We study the production planning problem using a high-dimensional Markov decision process (MDP) model to characterize the production ramp-up. To address the curse of dimensionality, we refine Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) algorithm and theoretically analyze its convergence and computational complexity. In a real case study, we find that the MDP model achieves revenue improvement by stopping producing the existing product earlier than the benchmark policy. In synthetic instances, we validate that the proposed MCTS algorithm saves computation time without loss of solution quality compared with traditional value iteration algorithm. As part of the Lenovo production solution, our MDP model enables high-tech smartphone manufacturers to better plan the production ramp-up.     

无人作战的人机融合：挑战与出路

无人作战对于人和机器两个要素的融合提出了巨大的挑战。一方面,无人作战独特的作战模式和作战环境对于自然人的能力素质构成严峻挑战,高度智能化的作战系统运行速度、海量的数据信息日益挑战人类的反应能力和决策能力,虚拟的、远程的、与现实战场隔绝的作战环境日益挑战人类的心理素质。另一方面,机器的高度智能化虽然有利于更好地发挥潜在的作战能力,但也不可避免地带来战争失控和道德沦丧的风险。破解人机两个维度的挑战,实现人与机器的深度融合,一方面要利用增强技术从物理、生理、心理三个层面加速提高人类的能力素质,另一方面是强化机器人的伦理安全设计,坚守人类对机器人的控制底线,规避机器人失控和战争“非人化”的道德风险。     

国家安全与公共卫生安全应急话语构建【专题】

近期发生的新冠病毒疫情引发公众对公共卫生安全话语的极大关注。现阶段自媒体话语滥觞对主流意识形态话语的消解,凸显了构建应急话语体系的必要性。国家安全话语构建离不开语言学话语理论支撑,语言学与大数据分析的融合可为健全国家应急话语体系提供操作思路。本文梳理疫情发生以来人民网、央视新闻等主流媒体网站及微信、微博等自媒体平台涌现的大量疫情多语类相关话语,通过弥补大数据在分析话语整体意义层面的不足,提出应急话语构建和分析的七个维度。本文认为,国防科技应发挥大数据统计分析优势的同时,结合话语分析方法构筑质化的语言学模型,走跨学科之路,构建国家安全话语公共卫生应急话语体系。     

Solving partially observable agent‐intruder games with an application to border security problems

In this paper, we introduce partially observable agent‐intruder games (POAIGs). These games model dynamic search games on graphs between security forces (an agent) and an intruder given possible (border) entry points and high value assets that require protection. The agent faces situations with dynamically changing, partially observable information about the state of the intruder and vice versa. The agent may place sensors at selected locations, while the intruder may recruit partners to observe the agent's movement. We formulate the problem as a two‐person zero‐sum game, and develop efficient algorithms to compute each player's optimal strategy. The solution to the game will help the agent choose sensor locations and design patrol routes that can handle imperfect information. First, we prove the existence of ?‐optimal strategies for POAIGs with an infinite time horizon. Second, we introduce a Bayesian approximation algorithm to identify these ?‐optimal strategies using belief functions that incorporate the imperfect information that becomes available during the game. For the solutions of large POAIGs with a finite time horizon, we use a solution method common to extensive form games, namely, the sequence form representation. To illustrate the POAIGs, we present several examples and numerical results.     

交互式Pareto前沿可视化决策

针对现有高维多目标可视化技术不能有效显示决策偏好信息这一难题,提出一种基于径向轴图的交互式Pareto前沿可视化决策方法。进行标准化适应度函数处理,消除量纲差距;根据交互更新的轴向量矩阵建立最小二乘问题模型,通过Moore-Penrose广义逆矩阵方法求解投影点,从而获得Pareto前沿分布图。该方法能够有效显示目标各维度信息,直观呈现决策偏好,动态表现目标性能趋势。通过实验与传统可视化技术对比分析,验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

防空通信系统效能评估

防空通信系统是保障防空指挥和控制有效性的重要手段,其效能的好坏将直接影响到作战结果.在分析效能评估方法的基础上,根据防空通信系统的特点,建立了防空通信系统综合评估指标体系.对防空通信系统的效能评估过程进行了描述,给出了效能评估模型和评估方法,并进行了实例分析.对全面而科学地评价防空通信系统的效能具有较强的实用性.     

卫星隐身技术研究进展及发展趋势

卫星隐身技术在空间攻防系统中占有独特的地位,与在地面装甲车辆、舰船、飞机上应用的隐身技术有一定的相似之处,但由于卫星研制条件以及所处的太空环境不同,卫星隐身技术的研究及应用更具有挑战性.基于卫星工程应用,归纳了卫星隐身需求、应用环境等,重点介绍了国际前沿隐身技术,包括雷达隐身手段、红外及可见光隐身手段,同时探讨卫星隐身...     

The rise and fall of counterproliferation policy

The US government initiated a Defense Counterproliferation Initiative to address the concern that, in the post-Cold War years, the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons would be widespread and create a significant challenge to the US military’s combat operations. In particular, non-nuclear states might use chemical or biological warfare agents against US forces with the belief that nuclear weapons would not be used against them in retaliation. Following the events of September 11, 2001, defense strategy and policy shifted to a wider view of the threat of adversarial use of “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD) and the term “counterproliferation” was replaced by “combating” or “countering WMD.” Over time, the Defense Department increasingly moved away from counterproliferation principles with the detrimental effect of losing capabilities that US forces still need for contemporary adversaries. This shift has been aggravated by other US government agencies’ use of “counterproliferation” in lieu of what would have been termed “nonproliferation” activities in the 1990s. The loss of clarity within the US government on these terms has led to the inability to focus the “whole of government” on this significant national security challenge. To alleviate this challenge, the US government needs a top-down initiative to refocus policy on the distinctly different aspects of WMD with respect to military combat operations, combating terrorism, and homeland security.     

Sharing the load: factors in supporting local armed groups in insurgencies

Most counterinsurgency campaigns have featured the use of some form of local defense forces. Such forces have had a somewhat mixed record, both in their usefulness in actually countering insurgents and in their longer-term impact on internal security. This article focuses on historical cases that provide lessons for the best operational and strategic uses of local defense forces and measures to control their activities.     

基于TOPSIS算法的防空通信网络系统效能评估

简要分析了防空通信网络系统的主要任务,建立了防空通信网络系统的效能评估指标体系。提出了利用TOPSIS算法进行防空通信网络效能评估的方法,可根据影响通信网络系统效能的指标及权重,对不同组网方式下的防空通信网络系统效能进行评估。示例表明,利用TOPSIS算法可对防空通信网络效能进行评估排序,能够为指挥员的决策规划提供参考。