The elephant in the room: US ballistic missile defence under Barack Obama

Conventional wisdom seems to hold that under Barack Obama, the US ballistic missile defence programme has been pushed aside to allow for a refreshed domestic and international agenda. Proponents point to Obama's campaign thinking and rhetoric, the ballistic missile defence (BMD) budget cuts, the decision to end the Third Site in Europe, and the reset relations with Russia through the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) as evidence that the programme has undergone a significant period of change, retraction and rationalisation. This article argues instead that BMD has not fallen from prominence and that there is a change in focus rather than retraction of its strategic goal. Consequently, BMD continues to grow in importance as a component of US national security strategy.     

【专题】“无人系统自主性与智能化”专题编者按

地空协同无人系统作为新质跨域智能作战力量已成为世界强国开展军事技术竞争的前沿方向。本文首先总结了地空协同无人系统的概念、功能及发展目标,分析了世界主要国家制定的专项规划,从形成智能作战体系、改变战场攻防平衡及全面提高作战效能三个方面阐述了地空协同无人系统对未来战争的重大意义;其次,针对其面临的环境复杂、资源受限和平台异构等约束条件,从分布式态势认知、适应性智能导航及异构系统协同控制等方面总结了地空协同无人系统需要突破的关键技术;最后,为应对智能化战争挑战,从技术瓶颈、平台建设及政策支持等方面提出发展建议。该研究可为地空协同无人系统在国防科技领域的研究、应用和发展提供参考。     

Are the Baltic States and NATO on the right path in deterring Russia in the Baltic?

ABSTRACT

The aim of the current study is to discuss which particular factors Russia considers as sufficient deterrent capabilities and whether the national defence models implemented in the Baltic countries have the potential to deter Russia's military planners and political leadership. Whilst the existing conventional reserves of NATO are sizeable, secure, and rapid, deployment is still a critical variable in case of a conflict in the Baltic countries because of the limited range of safe transportation options. However, whilst the Baltic States are developing their capabilities according to the priorities defined by NATO in 2010; which were updated after the invasion of Crimea in 2014, Russian military planners have meanwhile redesigned both their military doctrine and military forces, learning from the experience of the Russo-Georgian war, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other recent confrontations. Accordingly, there is a risk that the efforts of the Baltic countries could prove rather inefficient in deterring Russia.