基于STN的任务执行过程中的资源冲突自动消解

任务在执行过程中受到各种因素的影响,任务时间可能会偏离预定计划,在资源数量有限的情况下,由于要满足时间的约束,往往会出现时间重叠而发生资源冲突。消解这种资源冲突的一个最直接的方法是及时调整任务计划时间消解潜在的资源冲突。针对任务执行过程中冲突消解人工决策耗时较长的问题,设计了一种基于STN的任务在执行过程中的自动消解方法,通过案例仿真,证明方法是可行的,并且能够比人工决策方式节约时间。     

一种改进的证据权重确定方法

针对Dempster方法在合成高冲突证据时存在的问题,分析了现有改进方法的缺点,提出了一种新的改进方法。该方法首先利用证据之间的相似系数求出各证据的初级权重;然后引入权重折扣因子,将冲突证据的权重按折扣因子折算后并入到其他证据的权重中,得到各证据的综合权重;最后对证据加权平均后再利用D-S组合规则进行组合,通过算例比较表明改进后的方法合成结果更加有效。     

一种基于周期分区的时间调度算法

针对多功能相控阵雷达任务实时调度问题,提出了一种基于采样周期分区的时间资源调度算法(记为PD)。该算法以各类任务采样周期的最大公约数为分区标准,将各采样周期均分为多个等长区间,再将各类任务平均分配到不同分区中调度执行,可解决调度过程中任务因采样周期不同产生冲突的难题。仿真结果表明,该算法可提高系统任务调度能力,可广泛应用于相控阵雷达任务调度及其他实时任务调度系统。     

一种改进的证据理论合成规则

随着证据理论在信息融合领域中的广泛应用,对冲突证据的处理成为证据理论和应用研究热点。提出了一种基于证据重要度和聚焦度的新的合成规则,首先根据各个证据的重要度对冲突证据进行修正,再对冲突进行细化并考虑证据焦元的基数对D-S合成法则的影响,将冲突信息提取后加入组合规则中。通过实验比较和分析,结果说明该方法不仅能够处理一般性冲突问题,也能处理"一票否决"和"鲁棒性"问题。     

增强网络技术在教学中的辅助作用

网络技术在教育教学当中的应用是深化教育体制改革、扎实推进教育公平的重要措施,也是对适应我国教育教学活动实际的教学模式的研究和重要探索。分析了网络技术辅助教学相比传统教学所具有的优势,并从开发和应用两方面对网络辅助教学进行阐述,同时展望了网络技术的发展前景及其对未来教育的影响。     

Conflict management in the Central African Republic: making genocide prevention work

This commentary analyses the international response to the crisis that struck the Central African Republic (CAR) in early December 2013. It examines three intertwined dimensions defining the courses of action available to policymakers dealing with pre-genocidal crises: the politics and institutional manoeuvring shaping the United Nations (UN) Security Council's decision to authorise an enforcement mission without deploying ‘blue helmets’ on the ground; the operational complexities involved in launching rapid reaction forces; and the interdependent logics between peacebuilding and atrocity prevention. The author argues that there are three ways for the UN Secretariat to ensure a more effective response to CAR-type situations: generating political will to respond swiftly to deteriorating crises leading to widespread abuses of human rights by advancing the concept of Responsibility to Protect as a core component of states' national interests; developing strategic frameworks for the deployment of multi-plural missions equipped to avert the actual or potential threat of atrocities; and developing joint early warning and scenario planning between peacebuilding and atrocity prevention agencies.     

2015 and the survival of the Nigerian State

Nigeria is currently faced with serious domestic challenges. While the state is not officially at war, it is standing on the precipice, especially with the eruption of violence occasioned by the emergence of the Boko Haram sect and the tenuous peace in the Niger Delta. With the 2015 general elections on the horizon, fears of further violence and disintegration are rife, more so because of the debate over who occupies the Presidential Villa at Abuja. President Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, seems poised for a comeback even amidst the vociferous challenge posed by the political elites of northern Nigeria. This article looks at the different scenarios that might play out in 2015. It analyses the challenges of the survival of the Nigerian state, and makes some policy recommendations that Nigeria and its people need to put into place in order to ensure its survival beyond 2015.     

From adversity to prosperity

This article interrogates the continuing relevance of the contractarian governance paradigm to resource governance and the impact of exploitation on the local population and environment in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Zimbabwe and Ghana. It highlights the susceptibilities of their governance processes, particularly the roles of the elites of the host communities, the multinational corporations, and the governing authorities in appropriating resources for their personal interests, resulting in tensions and conflicts. This scenario is borne out of inept leadership, as well as the defective and compromised administrative mechanisms operational in these countries. In view of this, the article underscores the need for a ‘new governance management paradigm’ anchored on a communitarian framework, which incorporates all stakeholders, to guarantee sustainable peace and prosperity, particularly in conflict zones. The article therefore concludes that achieving a nexus between forestry, mining activities and economic development in these countries will require a restructuring of the existing governance mechanisms; and advocates for a new governance model capable of curbing the excesses of local and foreign hegemony, including a total overhaul of the seemingly compromised supervising authority.     

Understanding the ‘failure’ of the Séléka rebellion

This paper examines the downfall of the Séléka rebellion, which staged a coup in the Central African Republic in March 2013. The coup plunged the country into violence and chaos, and there has been an uneasy quest for peace ever since. This article explains why the leader of the rebellion lost control over his troops and was finally pushed by regional actors to leave power. The article concludes that the Séléka rebellion was already fragile and, together with the poor leadership demonstrated by the coalition leader, the rebellion was unable to hold on to power.     

装甲装备器材库存超(欠)储状态分析与程度评价

定义了装甲装备器材库存超(欠)储的概念,提出了维修保障资源点器材储存状态的定性判别和量化方法;考虑数量、时间、空间等影响因素,提出了资源点维修器材超(欠)储程度的评价指标和评价方法,并结合某军区实际数据进行了验证。结果表明:资源点的平均超(欠)储程度反映了保障体系内所有资源点库存偏离正常水平的平均程度,可为确定调剂资源点的优先次序和供应数量提供依据。