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111.
离散动态贝叶斯网络是对动态系统进行建模和定性推理的有力工具。由于观测证据会随时间增加,直接计算推理算法的公式会变得冗长而且推理速度还会下降。在直接计算推理算法的基础上推导出递推公式,并给出算例验证。递推计算公式简洁,仿真表明递推算法的推理速度较直接计算推理算法有明显提高,因而适合实时在线推理。最后将递推算法应用于航天器的态势感知。 相似文献
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In this article, we develop a novel electric power supply chain network model with fuel supply markets that captures both the economic network transactions in energy supply markets and the physical network transmission constraints in the electric power network. The theoretical derivation and analysis are done using the theory of variational inequalities. We then apply the model to a specific case, the New England electric power supply chain, consisting of six states, five fuel types, 82 power generators, with a total of 573 generating units, and 10 demand market regions. The empirical case study demonstrates that the regional electric power prices simulated by our model match the actual electricity prices in New England very well. We also compute the electric power prices and the spark spread, an important measure of the power plant profitability, under natural gas and oil price variations. The empirical examples illustrate that in New England, the market/grid‐level fuel competition has become the major factor that affects the influence of the oil price on the natural gas price. Finally, we utilize the model to quantitatively investigate how changes in the demand for electricity influence the electric power and the fuel markets from a regional perspective. The theoretical model can be applied to other regions and multiple electricity markets under deregulation to quantify the interactions in electric power/energy supply chains and their effects on flows and prices. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009 相似文献
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Todas information and communication network requires a design that is secure to tampering. Traditional performance measures of reliability and throughput must be supplemented with measures of security. Recognition of an adversary who can inflict damage leads toward a game‐theoretic model. Through such a formulation, guidelines for network designs and improvements are derived. We opt for a design that is most robust to withstand both natural degradation and adversarial attacks. Extensive computational experience with such a model suggests that a Nash‐equilibrium design exists that can withstand the worst possible damage. Most important, the equilibrium is value‐free in that it is stable irrespective of the unit costs associated with reliability vs. capacity improvement and how one wishes to trade between throughput and reliability. This finding helps to pinpoint the most critical components in network design. From a policy standpoint, the model also allows the monetary value of information‐security to be imputed. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009 相似文献
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为了可靠实现爆炸逻辑间隙零门的原理功能,提出并验证了一种基于精细RDX和含能胶合剂的传爆药方案.通过实验探索了基于该传爆药的爆炸零门适用的间隙宽度范围,并设计了一种小尺寸爆炸逻辑间隙零门,为爆炸逻辑网络设计提供参考. 相似文献
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Information technology (IT) infrastructure relies on a globalized supply chain that is vulnerable to numerous risks from adversarial attacks. It is important to protect IT infrastructure from these dynamic, persistent risks by delaying adversarial exploits. In this paper, we propose max‐min interdiction models for critical infrastructure protection that prioritizes cost‐effective security mitigations to maximally delay adversarial attacks. We consider attacks originating from multiple adversaries, each of which aims to find a “critical path” through the attack surface to complete the corresponding attack as soon as possible. Decision‐makers can deploy mitigations to delay attack exploits, however, mitigation effectiveness is sometimes uncertain. We propose a stochastic model variant to address this uncertainty by incorporating random delay times. The proposed models can be reformulated as a nested max‐max problem using dualization. We propose a Lagrangian heuristic approach that decomposes the max‐max problem into a number of smaller subproblems, and updates upper and lower bounds to the original problem via subgradient optimization. We evaluate the perfect information solution value as an alternative method for updating the upper bound. Computational results demonstrate that the Lagrangian heuristic identifies near‐optimal solutions efficiently, which outperforms a general purpose mixed‐integer programming solver on medium and large instances. 相似文献
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军事通信网综合管理系统中,各专业网络运行情况的主要数据都可汇总到综合网管数据库中。这些网管数据中隐含了网络运行的几乎全部信息,但即使是最有经验的网络管理专家面对这些繁杂的数据也只能望洋兴叹。面对大数据的智能分析技术则有可能实现网络运行态势的高度可视化,充分理解和详细把握全网运行状态,像知识、经验、联想丰富的专家一样不知疲倦地对网络运行状况进行全面细致地分析,从海量的网管数据中发现网络故障的蛛丝马迹,发现隐含的问题,预知网络变化。论文介绍了利用大数据分析技术实现网络管理智能化的现实目标,基于性能的网络异常预测预报、基于性能和事件的故障分析诊断、网络运行知识的挖掘利用等方面的功能和技术途径。 相似文献
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A company wishes to estimate or predict its financial exposure in a reporting period of length T (typically one quarter) because of warranty claims. We propose a fairly general random measure model which allows computation of the Laplace transform of the total claim made against the company in the reporting interval due to warranty claims. When specialized to a Poisson process of both sales and warranty claims, statistical estimation of relevant quantities is possible. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing automobile sales and warranty claims data from a large car manufacturer for a single car model and model year. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008 相似文献
119.
随着大规模分子相互作用数据的不断涌现,生物学网络方面的研究正日益得到重视.代谢网络处于生物体的功能执行阶段,其结构组成方式不仅反映了生物体的功能构成,也直接影响代谢工程中的途径分析和研究.作为代谢网络研究的重要环节,实现网络的合理分解不仅对于基因组范围内分子网络的结构和功能研究具有重要意义,也是代谢工程的途径分析和优化得以顺利进行的前提之一.在回顾代谢网络宏观结构和拓扑特征研究成果的基础上,通过对现有分解方法的深入分析,指出缺乏合理且有针对性的模型评估准则是目前网络分解研究中亟待解决的问题之一.今后的研究趋势在于如何整合更多的信息和发展更先进的分析方法,建立更合理的模型,并进一步拓展网络分解的应用范围. 相似文献
120.
汽车轮速是汽车运动状态参数的主要信息源,是控制系统的核心,其精度直接影响这些系统的性能.为了提高轮速的精度,降低传感器的研制成本,提出了一种基于弹性BP神经网络的误差分析方法消除轮速传感器误差.将改进的BP神经网络--弹性BP神经网络用于误差分析,并提出误差匹配的算法.理论和仿真结果表明,该方法使绝对误差达到2×10-4>rad,能够有效地消除传感器误差,提高轮速信号的精度. 相似文献