具有不确定信息的作战方案优选的群决策方法

根据群决策的特点,按照集议决策的习惯程序,提出了一种充分发挥集议决策优势的群决策方法。并基于区间分析对潜艇布雷方案优选中的不确定性进行处理,最后利用了区间数多属性决策的TOPSIS法行为集结的最后结果（决策矩阵）进行数学集结,较好地做到了决策在定性和定量上的综合集成。     

基于Markov链的分布式仿真系统最佳检查点间隔研究

基于HLA的分布式仿真系统作为一类特殊的分布式系统,其容错一般基于回卷恢复实现,在回卷恢复中检查点间隔的不同会对系统性能产生很大的影响。分析了分布式仿真容错与一般分布式系统容错的异同,根据不同仿真进程对仿真结果的重要程度对其进行了分类,定义并利用Markov链分析了采用回卷恢复时分布式仿真系统的可用度,得到了系统最大可用度对应的检查点间隔的求解等式,通过一组试验数据验证了该最佳检查点间隔求解等式的正确性。     

故障检查间隔期的简化计算方法

建立了定期故障检查策略下系统的可用度模型,在满足系统可用度要求的条件下,可以使用该模型确定故障检查工作的间隔期。为了简化故障检查间隔期的计算,给出了故障时间服从指数分布时,故障检查间隔期的上、下限计算公式及应用示例。     

Replicated batch means for steady‐state simulations

This paper studies a new steady‐state simulation output analysis method called replicated batch means in which a small number of replications are conducted and the observations in these replications are grouped into batches. This paper also introduces and compares methods for selecting the initial state of each replication. More specifically, we show that confidence intervals constructed by the replicated batch means method are valid for large batch sizes and derive expressions for the expected values and variances of the steady‐state mean and variance estimators for stationary processes and large sample sizes. We then use these expressions, analytical examples, and numerical experiments to compare the replicated batch means method with the standard batch means and multiple replications methods. The numerical results, which are obtained from an AR(1) process and a small, nearly‐decomposable Markov chain, show that the multiple replications method often gives confidence intervals with poorer coverage than the standard and replicated batch means methods and that the replicated batch means method, implemented with good choices of initialization method and number of replications, provides confidence interval coverages that range from being comparable with to being noticeably better than coverages obtained by the standard batch means method. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

雷达"指纹"参数选取

从雷达发射机的基本原理出发,对发射机的各组成部分进行深入分析,给出了每个雷达参数的产生机理,结合生物指纹的特点,得出了雷达脉冲重复间隔可以作为雷达“指纹”特征参数的结论,为雷达个体识别的完成提供了保证。     

一种新型的计算化学非平衡流动的解耦方法

给出一种计算化学非平衡流动的解耦方法。利用该方法从薄层近似N S方程出发 ,采用NND2M差分格式 ,数值模拟了H2 /O2 燃烧的超音速绕流场 ;计算表明这种方法可以有效地解决刚性问题 ,而且与现有的隐式算法相比 ,具有公式推导简便 ,占用内存少 ,计算效率高等优点 ,特别适合于多组分和多反应的情况     

非单调关联故障树顶事件失效概率的新算法

提出了一种计算非单调关联故障树顶事件失效概率的新方法,其基本思想是利用ＢＤＤ进行故障树中顶事件的不交化工作,可避免求ＰＩＳ和ＰＩＳ的最小覆盖的运算过程,为有效解决其运算的ＮＰ困难问题提供了一条新的途径。     

一维非均匀分布参数系统的渐近传递函数方法

提出了一维非均匀分布参数系统的一种通用解法：渐近传递函数方法。对一般的一维非均匀分布参数系统，引入状态变量将控制方程及边界方程写成状态空间形式。通过定义小参数和摄动方法，使之变成常系数微分方程，从而得到问题的摄动解。各阶摄动解均具有规范的形式，是一以传递函数为积分核的积分形式解析解。文中最后给出了一些数值算例，验证了方法的有效性。     

观炮间隔修正的数学模型

建立了观炮间隔修正的数学模型,使用本模型可以消除目前舰炮指挥仪公式系中未考虑舰艇摇摆对观炮间隔修正产生的射击误差。     

Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008