基于Bayes理论的航空电子设备可靠性评估

针对航空电子设备无失效数据可靠性分析问题,提出了weibull分布下基于Bayes理论的无失效数据分析方法,基于分层Bayes思想建立了模型,推导出可靠性参数后验分布计算公式,结合实例,验证了方法的有效性,结果表明,此方法计算结果符合工程实际,在其他电子设备可靠性分析中,有一定的借鉴意义.     

基于数字地图的威胁空间建模与仿真

利用雷达地形遮蔽盲区进行低空突防对敌人地面目标进行攻击是航迹规划关键技术之一.在综合考虑作战区域地形、敌方防空力量等因素条件下,应用人工势场理论对威胁空间的威胁级别进行量化处理,建立了战区势场模型.通过仿真证明,该模型更加符合真实的战场环境,为战斗机任务规划特别是航迹规划提供了参考依据.     

FIPA规范的防空导弹体系Agent建模方法

针对防空导弹体系建模的复杂性,探讨研究防空导弹体系的Agent建模方法.提出了基于G/A矩阵的Agent建模方法步骤,通过分析角色之间的关系描述了Agent组织结构,给出了角色类和Agent类的统一定义,并建立了Agent结构框架和类实现模型,最后构建了基于FIPA规范的MAS综合集成框架.该方法的提出,为防空导弹体系的进一步建模提供了方法依据.     

爆炸逻辑间隙零门实验研究

为了可靠实现爆炸逻辑间隙零门的原理功能,提出并验证了一种基于精细RDX和含能胶合剂的传爆药方案.通过实验探索了基于该传爆药的爆炸零门适用的间隙宽度范围,并设计了一种小尺寸爆炸逻辑间隙零门,为爆炸逻辑网络设计提供参考.     

An integrated electric power supply chain and fuel market network framework: Theoretical modeling with empirical analysis for New England

In this article, we develop a novel electric power supply chain network model with fuel supply markets that captures both the economic network transactions in energy supply markets and the physical network transmission constraints in the electric power network. The theoretical derivation and analysis are done using the theory of variational inequalities. We then apply the model to a specific case, the New England electric power supply chain, consisting of six states, five fuel types, 82 power generators, with a total of 573 generating units, and 10 demand market regions. The empirical case study demonstrates that the regional electric power prices simulated by our model match the actual electricity prices in New England very well. We also compute the electric power prices and the spark spread, an important measure of the power plant profitability, under natural gas and oil price variations. The empirical examples illustrate that in New England, the market/grid‐level fuel competition has become the major factor that affects the influence of the oil price on the natural gas price. Finally, we utilize the model to quantitatively investigate how changes in the demand for electricity influence the electric power and the fuel markets from a regional perspective. The theoretical model can be applied to other regions and multiple electricity markets under deregulation to quantify the interactions in electric power/energy supply chains and their effects on flows and prices. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Information security: Designing a stochastic‐network for throughput and reliability

Todas information and communication network requires a design that is secure to tampering. Traditional performance measures of reliability and throughput must be supplemented with measures of security. Recognition of an adversary who can inflict damage leads toward a game‐theoretic model. Through such a formulation, guidelines for network designs and improvements are derived. We opt for a design that is most robust to withstand both natural degradation and adversarial attacks. Extensive computational experience with such a model suggests that a Nash‐equilibrium design exists that can withstand the worst possible damage. Most important, the equilibrium is value‐free in that it is stable irrespective of the unit costs associated with reliability vs. capacity improvement and how one wishes to trade between throughput and reliability. This finding helps to pinpoint the most critical components in network design. From a policy standpoint, the model also allows the monetary value of information‐security to be imputed. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

重大活动防爆安全检查面临的困难及对策

重大活动防爆安全检查工作涉及的点多、线长、面广,内容十分广泛,参与部门较多,装备器材需求量大,防爆安全检查工作的计划、组织、指挥、协调、保障及具体检查实施将面临一定的困难。做好重大活动防爆安全检查工作．要建立高效顺畅的防爆安全检查指挥机构,制定切实可行的安检方案;要强化科技致胜的意识,进行有力的装备保障;要运用科学的方式方法,加强宣传沟通,争取群众的支持配合;要增强服务意识,缓和警卫形式。     

基于灰色系统理论的火灾事故预测方法

简要叙述应用灰色系统理论进行火灾事故预测的理论和方法 ,建立了火灾事故预测的GM (1,1)模型 ,并用该模型对火灾事故进行预测。     

面空导弹武器系统软件的健壮性设计

面空导弹武器系统软件的健壮性设计是软件开发工作的核心问题之一。首先介绍了面空导弹武器系统软件的特点并阐述了软件健壮性的内涵 ,表明它是软件可靠性、安全性和协调性均要满足的一种软件质量特性。在此基础上 ,提出了一种软件健壮性设计的概念 ,重点论述了软件可靠性设计、安全性设计和协调性设计的方法。     

舰空导弹作战使用及指挥控制

从作战使用角度出发 ,对作战使用研究的目的、细目进行了界定 ,对作战过程中作战人员的职责、作战组织、作战实施和指挥控制问题进行了剖析 ,为最终制定作战指挥程序和编制协同任务表奠定了基础。最后指出了新的研究方向