对策理论的防空作战决策级融合模型

随着防空C3I系统的发展,防空作战决策的过程较以往更为自动化,用于生成各种作战辅助决策方案的计算机模型也具备随着作战环境改变所表现出一定的自适应调整的特征.影响防空作战决策结果正确性的因素众多,表现这些因素的信息有些是冲突的,为得到更为准确、有效的决策方案,各类冲突信息的处理成为防空作战的核心问题.构造了一种在冲突信息环境下基于对策理论的融合模型,以对策理论的相关算法实现了融合中心各类信息的交互决策.实践表明,这一融合模型能有效地解决防空作战决策中各类信息的综合处理问题,具有一定的实用价值.     

基于装备多寿命周期理论的发动机再制造工程及其效益分析

为了延长装备的回用时间,减少装备对环境的影响及充分利用资源,介绍了基于装备多寿命周期理论的发动机再制造工程,对发动机再制造的内涵、工艺流程、经济社会效益进行了分析。以年再制造1万台重型车辆斯太尔发动机为例进行了效益分析,结果表明可以节省金属材料7.65 kt,回收附加值3.23亿元,提供就业500人,并可节电1.45×108kWh,减少CO2排放0.6 kt,说明发展再制造工程对延长装备寿命周期、节能、节材、环保等方面具有重要意义。     

基于云模型的物元综合评估方法

将云模型与物元理论相结合,提出了一种基于云模型的物元评估方法,构建了云模型与物元理论相结合的综合评估模型.重点分析了云与数值、云与数值区间以及云与云之间的关联度计算方法,并应用示例说明了该方法的使用.最后由实例可以看出,所提方法实现了基于语言值的不确定评估.     

带有消声瓦的潜艇耐压壳的稳态振动和横向应力

采用混合分层理论和Ressiner混合变分原理,在壳的厚度方向取二次插值函数来描述位移沿厚度方向的变化规律;采用三次和四次插值函数来描述横向应力沿厚度方向的变化,线形处理筋条的变形,推导出粘弹加筋层合圆柱壳的动力学方程和协调方程组,并采用拉普拉斯变换,得出简支粘弹加筋层合圆柱壳稳态振动的响应解。对于自由阻尼层合圆柱壳,所给出的振动频率和结构损耗因子与解析解吻合良好.结果表明,较高的层间横向正应力是引起潜艇消声瓦脱落的主要因素,而采用较高模量的粘弹性阻尼材料将降低层间横向应力的幅值.     

基于IRT的自适应学习管理系统设计

从新一代网络教育标准体系的架构入手,结合学习管理系统标准,提出了用标准格式绑定学习单元的方法,并且结合项目反应理论,实现了自适应学习管理和跟踪。标准化的结构设计有利于教育资源在不同系统间的交互、共享和重用,而自适应的学习跟踪使得远程网络教育过程更符合人的学习规律,能够有效地提高学习效率.     

Designing rewards-based crowdfunding campaigns for strategic (but distracted) contributors

In rewards-based crowdfunding, entrepreneurs solicit donations from a large number of individual contributors. If total donations exceed a prespecified funding target, the entrepreneur distributes nonmonetary rewards to contributors; otherwise, their donations are refunded. We study how to design such campaigns when contributors choose not just whether to contribute, but also when to contribute. We show that strategic contribution behavior—when contributors intentionally delay until campaign success is likely—can arise from the combination of nonrefundable (potentially very small) hassle costs and the risk of campaign failure, and can explain pledging patterns commonly observed in crowdfunding. Furthermore, such delays do not hurt the entrepreneur if contributors are perfectly rational, but they do if contributors are distracted, that is, if they might fail to return to the campaign after an intentional delay. To mitigate this, we find that an entrepreneur can use a simple menu of rewards with a fixed number of units sold at a low price, and an unlimited number sold at a higher price; this segments contributors over time based on the information they observe upon arrival. We show that, despite its simplicity, such a menu performs well compared to a theoretically optimal menu consisting of an infinite number of different rewards and price levels under many conditions.     

泛函在射表逼近中的应用

运用泛函理论,对方差最小原则下射表逼近进行分析,给出了在给定基函数形式条件下的统一计算公式,并对最小二乘方法作了改进,消除系数矩阵的原理误差,给出了提高精度的方法。最后,提出了一个选择基函数的有效方法。     

装备贮存可靠性指标的统计描述

对军用装备的贮存可靠性指标进行统计描述,对装备系统常见的有性能参数要求的机械、电子整机,有强度要求的结构件整机和一次性使用产品等三大类型军用装备的贮存可靠性给出定量评定的模型。     

The timing of contests

We develop a simple model to analyze the timing of contests. When the odds of winning a contest are exogenously given – we show that if either the players discount the future or if the total cost of contest is smaller in the future – there exist subgame perfect equilibria where both players settle, anticipating a contest in the future. With endogenous efforts, the aggregate efforts expanded in a contest are smaller if the contest occurs in the future when the relative effort productivities remain constant or diverge over time, thus creating scope for delay in contests. When the effort productivities converge over time, the total efforts may be greater under a future contest. As a consequence, players either settle over the two periods, or else they initiate a contest immediately.     

中国空间安全形势

随着中国在太空领域的不断崛起,太空地位不断提升的同时,也面临着各种各样的挑战,这些挑战既有源自传统政治领域的大国阻挠,也有来自外太空的人类共同威胁。为了应对这些威胁和挑战,保护中国的太空利益和国家利益,我们需要从多方面着手,多管齐下,以维护日益重要的中国国家太空利益。