The Management of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan, the fastest growing nuclear weapon state in the world, has established over the last decade a nuclear management system it holds to be “foolproof.” Despite the explosion of radical groups challenging the writ of the state, it dismisses concerns by critics that its nuclear weapons are not safe and secure as “preposterous” and an attempt to “malign” the state. This article examines Pakistan's nuclear management system in four functional areas: command-and-control, physical security, nuclear surety, and doctrine. It describes what is publicly known in each area, identifies areas of omission and inadequacy in each one, and examines several premises of the nuclear program the author considers to be unfounded. Comparing these deficiencies in Pakistan's nuclear management system to the current problems plaguing the US nuclear management system, the author concludes that complacency and unfounded confidence in the efficacy of such programs, if not addressed and corrected, could lead to a future nuclear catastrophe in South Asia.     

The Odyssey of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

This study examines the failures of the William J. Clinton and Barack Obama administrations to secure ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It applies an integrated analytical framework for assessing treaty ratification that builds upon previous research in order to understand why the Clinton administration failed to achieve CTBT ratification in 1999 and why the Obama administration has so far failed to advance the treaty in the Senate. The study concludes that CTBT ratification, despite Obama administration pledges of support, remains highly unlikely. Finally, the study analyzes the common domestic political factors present in both cases and suggests areas for further research.     

Nuclear security culture enhancement: the role of culture coordinators at Russian nuclear sites

In 2002, a Nuclear Security Culture (NSC) Enhancement Program with the mission to raise the level of the NSC at sites and facilities in Russia's nuclear complex was launched under the guidance of the Russian State Corporation “ROSATOM” and with support from the US Department of Energy. A Joint Working Group for NSC with both Russian Federation and US members was formed and charged with the design and implementation of the program. The program was implemented at sites and facilities on a pilot basis. Nine sites participated in the Pilot Project. The key program component was an establishment of Culture Coordinators (CCs) with the authority to coordinate and implement NSC enhancement activities at sites and facilities. The CCs have served as the force that has maintained the momentum of the Pilot Project and continuously steered the site NSC enhancement efforts. The contribution of the CCs in achieving the positive outcomes of the program cannot be overstated.     

Egypt: new government,old challenges

The new government in Egypt will have to deal with the following challenges in its foreign policy: the Palestinians, Sinai, the arms race between Israel and Egypt, the nuclear issue, the Suez Canal, and the Tiran Straits. Egypt has to decide what its approach would be toward these issues and as to how to maneuver between its own interests and those of other states such as Israel and the USA. All the sides have to consider their steps carefully in order to avoid an unnecessary crisis.     

Russia,America and missile defense

Russia has sharply objected to US plans for ballistic missile defense. The Russian official explanation is that the real purpose of the US missile defense plan is to make it impossible for Russia to retaliate against a US nuclear (or massive conventional) attack, thus making Russia subject to military blackmail by the US. The Russian response has been the result of a sum total of various factors, mostly political and cultural, while the technical capabilities of the proposed system have played a secondary role.     

船用核反应堆提棒外推临界优化研究

因稳定时间受限,传统的倍增公式导出的外推临界公式计算结果大于实测值,偏危险;文中根据新的中子倍增公式导出了外推临界计算的新公式,实例计算表明,该公式比传统的外推临界公式精确且偏安全.     

核污染的危害及其去除方法

核污染已成为全球十大环境难题之一,成了人类摆脱不掉的阴影.论述了核污染设施的核污染去除方法如物理法、化学法、电化学法、物理-化学联用法、微生物清除法、焚烧、超级压缩法和土壤核污染去除方法如铲土去污、深翻客土、可剥离性膜、森林修复等,并分析了各种去除方法的优缺点,最后提出了加强管理削减核污染源、加强现有处理方法的联用、开发微生物处理新技术和开发基因工程修复植物的建议.     

基于构件的软件复用技术在防化软件中的应用

软件复用是在软件开发过程中避免重复劳动的解决方案。通过构件的形式来实现软件复用,可以提高开发的效率和质量。以核侦察处理模块的实现和集成为例,介绍了基于构件的复用技术在目前信息化建设中的使用手段和方法。     

基于Elman神经网络的NSG水位特性辨识方法研究

针对核动力蒸汽发生器在瞬态、启动和低功率下的“收缩”与“膨胀”现象引起的逆动力学效应使核动力蒸汽发生器水位特性难以辨识的问题,提出了基于Elman神经网络的NSG水位特性辨识的新方法.采用串-并联型辨识结构,以保证辨识的收敛性和稳定性.网络训练采用Levenberg-Marququardt BP学习算法.仿真结果表明,所提出的方法能够正确地辨识核动力蒸汽发生器的水位特性,且具有较高的辨识精度.     

潜艇核事故应急评价模式研究

评价模式是核事故应急评价系统的核心．在理论分析的基础上,建立了适合基地特点的潜艇核事故应急评价模式及参数,并通过假想事故对所建立的评价模式进行了校核．结果表明,该模式具有良好的可靠性和可行性,适合基地的特点,满足核潜艇核事故应急评价的要求．根据所建模式,还编制了一套实用、可靠、灵活、方便的应用软件．