Two kinds of catastrophe: nuclear escalation and protracted war in Asia

China’s expanding strength and ambition may foreshadow a violent conflict with the United States. I describe two scenarios about how such a conflict would unfold. The article begins by examining the prospects for nuclear escalation, drawing on theories about politics, psychology, and inadvertent escalation. It then examines the prospects for protracted conventional war, a scenario that has received far less attention. I present a new theory of protraction based on technology, geography, and domestic politics. After assessing the logic of both scenarios against a hypothetical US–China conflict, I discuss which is more likely. The conclusion points to a sobering trade-off: efforts to avoid nuclear catastrophe increase the chance of a long and grueling fight.     

Security assurances and proliferation risks in the Trump administration

Comments that Donald Trump made while campaigning to be U.S. president have raised concerns that his administration will pull back from U.S. alliance commitments and encourage countries such as Japan and South Korea to acquire nuclear arms. The new article by Frühling and O’Neil outlines an institutional framework that can be helpful in assessing the risks that Trump administration policies will lead to nuclear proliferation. An institutional perspective shows that important elements of U.S. security assurances will continue to function, and this reduces the chances that President Trump’s actions or statements will trigger proliferation by U.S. allies. The greatest risk to global non-proliferation efforts posed by a Trump administration in fact lies elsewhere, in the possibility that President Trump will seek to abrogate the Iran nuclear deal.     

The nuclear education of Donald J. Trump

During the 2016 American presidential campaign, Democrats and Republicans alike repeatedly raised concerns at the prospect of Donald Trump being in charge of America’s nuclear arsenal based on his seemingly unstable personality. Unfortunately, this emphasis on Trump’s character distracted attention from any in-depth investigation into his long-standing interest in nuclear issues. This article seeks to remedy this shortcoming by highlighting the nuclear legacy Trump will inherit from Obama, surveying his statements on nuclear issues over more than three decades, and providing an analysis of constraining factors on his administration’s nuclear agenda, particularly domestic institutions. It finds that most of Trump’s views on nuclear issues are relatively consistent with past Republican presidents. Where he is unique, however, is in his use of social media, which has potential implications on nuclear signaling.     

对房地产策划的理性思考

随着房地产业的迅速发展,房地产策划在观念、专业化、组织、创新、协作和信息等方面存在着一些与发展不和谐的因素,通过对房地产策划的危机进行理性思考,以寻找战胜危机的可靠途径。在全面分析房地产策划危机的基础上,从贯穿市场意识、主动创造效益、强化整合功能、塑造品牌、引进管理等方面寻找形成房地产策划核心竞争力的源泉,以战胜暂时的危机。其结果证明了房地产策划仍然具有强大的生命力,暂时的危机一定能被克服。     

Between a rock and a hard place: Europe in a post-INF world

The end of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has the potential to plunge Europe and NATO into deep crisis. Russia’s continued violation coupled with the Donald J. Trump administration’s desire to balance against Moscow and Beijing could force a new missile debate on Europeans. Even though Washington is trying to assuage its allies, the specter of another round of INF missile deployments to Europe is not unrealistic. Meanwhile, NATO’s European members face a dilemma. Some want NATO to resolutely push back against Russia. Others want to avoid a new deployment debate, at almost all costs. The Kremlin will use these cleavages to weaken NATO. If not carefully handled, NATO’s response to the Russian missile buildup could lead to domestic turmoil in a number of European states and render the alliance ineffective for a prolonged period. Europeans need to act now and voice their preferences in the military and diplomatic domains. A number of different military options are available, below the level of deploying new INF missiles in Europe. However, Europeans need to consider trade-offs regarding crisis and arms-race stability. At the same time, it will be up to European capitals to conceptualize a new arms-control framework for the post-INF world, one that takes into account today’s geopolitical realities and the entanglement of modern conventional and nuclear forces. Given the Trump administration’s loathing of arms control, concepts of mutual restraint may well have to wait for the next US administration. In any case, that should not stop Europeans from taking on more responsibility for their own security.     

Unblocking inertia: US-Russian nuclear arms control and missile defenses

The United States and Russia, in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine, seem to have ditched entirely the “reset” in their political relations. Despite this odor of Cold War redux, there remain the opportunities and necessities for renewed attention to strategic nuclear arms control as between the two governments. US and NATO missile defenses as planned for European deployment figure into this equation, although in somewhat unpredictable ways, given technological uncertainties in existing and foreseeable defenses, as well as the possibility of improved delivery systems for offensive conventional or nuclear weapons.     

切尔诺贝利核事故救援对我国核电消防部队建设的启示

介绍了切尔诺贝利核事故消防部队救援的基本情况以及经验和教训,并针对我国目前核电消防的现状,结合切尔诺贝利核事故救援的经验和教训,就我国核电消防安全和队伍建设提出了建议和意见。     

核动力装置控制系统神经网络故障诊断

研究了如何将先进的人工神经网络的方法应用到核动力控制系统故障诊断中,并对这种方法的原理、优缺点、可行性等进行了分析,提出了针对核动力装置控制系统的设计方案.     

核电磁脉冲对单片机系统的辐照效应研究

核爆炸产生的电磁脉冲的“杀伤”范围极广,它可使距离爆心投影点几千公里的电气设备、电子装备和系统的工作失灵甚至破坏。为了研究它对单片机的各种效应,利用GTEM室产生的模拟核电磁脉冲,对单片机系统进行了辐照效应实验。实验表明,单片机系统在核电磁脉冲作用下,会出现“死机”、重启动、控制状态的改变、通讯错误和外部RAM内容改变以及数据采集误差增大等现象。在实验基础上,研究了单片机系统的各种效应产生的原因。     

用三维非线性Langevin方程计算裂变碎片质量分布

采用扩散模型,利用｛ｃ,ｈ,ａ｝三参数描述核形状,建立了三维非线性Ｌａｎｇｅｖｉｎ方程。用Ｍ—Ｃ方法模拟了核的形变运动,计算了处于高激发态的~（１９８）Ｈｇ,~（２１０）Ｐｏ和~（１８５）Ｒｅ核的裂变碎片质量分布。给出了裂变碎片的平均质量、均方差及最可几值等物理量。计算结果与实验值定性一致。