The Requirements of Nuclear Stability in South Asia

While recent history arguably demonstrates a high level of nuclear stability in South Asia, this article argues that this stability has historically been a function of India's relative weakness. It argues that, as India becomes stronger, attention must be paid to the technical and political requirements of nuclear stability: the reliability of weapons and command and control and the political conditions that underpin stable relations between nuclear-armed states. It concludes by recommending the United States aim to modify the perceptions of regional elites about their various intentions and decision-making processes and the role of the United States as crisis manager.     

China's Nuclear Forces and Their Significance to India

The Indian nuclear program is a response to a perceived politico-strategic threat from China as opposed to a military-operational one that New Delhi began after perceiving an “ultimatum” from China in 1965. Consequently, India is in the process of acquiring an assured second-strike capability vis-à-vis China to meet the requirements of general deterrence. While India has always been concerned about the Sino-Pakistani nuclear/missile nexus, China has become wary of the growing military ties between the United States and India in recent years, especially because of the military implications of the US-India civil nuclear deal. Given the growing conventional military gap between the two states, India is not lowering its nuclear threshold to meet the Chinese conventional challenge. Instead, India is upgrading its conventional military strategy from dissuasion to deterrence against China. While the overall Sino-Indian nuclear relationship is stable, it will be challenged as China acquires advanced conventional weapons that blur the distinction between conventional and nuclear conflict.     

A Proliferation of Royal Air Forces

Australia's interest in nuclear weapons in the 1950s and 60s is usually explained in terms of high politics and grand strategy. This proliferation case study explores, in greater detail than hitherto, the important part played by the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) in pressing for a nuclear capability. It seeks to understand the reasons behind the RAAF's lobbying, in particular its previous experience with air power, its visceral desire for advanced manned bomber aircraft, and its strong institutional link to the British Royal Air Force. The decision in 1963 to acquire the supersonic US F-111 strike aircraft, instead of rivals including the British TSR.2, is also considered. Once the RAAF's bomber ambitions were satisfied, interest in nuclear weapons was greatly reduced. Finally, some comments are included on the nuclear interests of other air forces in the British Commonwealth.     

Is the Indian Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes?

Sixteen years after stepping out of the nuclear closet, India's nuclear posture, some of its operational practices, and hardware developments are beginning to mimic those of the original five nuclear weapon states. Several proliferation scholars in the United States contend that India's national security managers are poised to repeat the worst mistakes of the superpowers’ Cold War nuclear competition, with negative consequences for deterrence, crisis, and stability in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. This article takes a contrarian view. It dissects the best available data to show why the alarmist view is overstated. It argues that not only are the alarmists’ claims unsupported by evidence, their interpretation of the skeletal and often contradictory data threatens to construct the very threat they prophesize.     

搅拌器配置对混响室无线电引信敏感度测试结果影响研究

针对国内各类标准及实验中提出的开阔场环境下敏感度测试方法无法满足线度较大弹体及高场强测试需要的问题,利用混响室在测试空间和强场模拟等方面的优势,提出混响室条件下无线电引信敏感度测试方法.测试方法是基于混响室步进工作模式,引入归一化场强这一物理量对混响室中受试引信敏感发火临界场强进行测算.实验证明,取各测试频点在不同采样点处测量值的最小值作为混响室条件下无线电引信的敏感度阈值时,混响室敏感度测试结果数值上最接近于标准均匀场条件下测得的敏感度阈值,同时进行不同搅拌器配置下该类引信的混响室敏感度测试.结果表明:搅拌器组合步进工作测量精度高于各搅拌器独立搅拌,而竖搅拌器独立步进工作时测试精度高于横搅拌器独立工作.     

试验方案评价的密切值方法及软件实现

分析了试验方案评价的要素和特点,针对试验方案评价决策中指标众多、指标层次划分困难、指标权重难以确定等问题,引入密切值模型的评价方法,并分析密切值模型的计算过程;基于MFC类库和VC开发环境,开发了密切值决策评价软件;给出试验方案密切值决策评价的应用案例,对软件进行测试,软件运行稳定,所得结果与理论分析一致.     

装备作战试验关键问题研究

装备建设服务于国家军事战略,能否将管用、好用的装备交付给军方,是国防工业部门和装备试验靶场共同的使命。除了要确保装备技术性能符合指标要求以外,还要确保交付给军方的装备能够适应不同的作战环境,并且能够在作战行动中发挥应有的作用。因此,作战试验是值得研究并且需要逐步开展的重要试验活动。文章将从国外在装备作战试验领域的具体做法入手,分析作战试验与研制试验的区别。在此基础上,对开展装备作战试验须重点把握的问题进行探讨,为开展装备作战试验提供理论支撑。     

军事装备试验项目质量管理

研究分析装备试验质量管理的概念、特点等相关理论,提出了装备试验质量管理体系结构及职责,并根据军事装备试验的四个阶段,研究提出试验全过程质量控制的基本方法。     

寿命分布的参数Bootstrap拟合优度检验方法

拟合优度检验在统计和可靠性等领域具有非常重要的地位,基于参数Bootstrap重采样的思想,对未知参数的常用寿命分布进行拟合优度检验。数值仿真结果表明,相对于传统的经验分布函数检验,这种基于参数Bootstrap的拟合优度检验具有更高的功效,特别是在小样本的情况下,优势明显。