Special Section: Nuclear Stability In South Asia

The question of nuclear stability in South Asia is a subject of both academic and policy significance. It is the only region in the world that has three, contiguous nuclear-armed states: India, the People's Republic of China, and Pakistan. It is also freighted with unresolved border disputes. To compound matters, all three states are now modernizing their nuclear forces and have expressed scant interest in any form of regional arms control. These issues and developments constitute the basis of this special section, which explores the problems and prospects of nuclear crisis stability in the region.     

基于研制试验数据的可靠性综合评估方法

针对产品在研制阶段的试验项目多、时间短、样本少等特点,在可靠性增长Duane模型的基础上,提出一种基于研制阶段变母体变环境试验数据的可靠性综合评估方法与模型。考虑不同试验应力环境对产品的影响,引入环境折合系数,根据相似产品试验数据,采用综合考虑了增长趋势检验约束和增长模型检验约束的寻优方法求解环境折合系数,利用折合后的数据进行可靠综合评估。通过实例证明了该方法的工程实用性。     

局部状态检测的GPS/INS组合导航转发式干扰检验方法

针对GPS/INS(Global Positioning System/Inertial Navigation System)组合导航中GPS转发式干扰问题,在分析故障变化特性与故障诊断函数特性之间关系的基础上,提出了一种基于局部状态χ2检验的方法。通过观测值的变化、观测模型的变化和χ2检验中x赞1k的变化论证了方法的可行性,并得出组合导航受到转发式干扰是判断系统发生故障的充分而非必要条件的结论。最后通过在仿真轨迹中加入诱偏来模拟转发式干扰,仿真实验证明该方法能够以较高的灵敏度和较高的准确性判断转发式干扰的发生。     

大型试件砂尘试验风洞有效吹风截面的论证

通过分析大型试件砂尘试验需求和现行军用标准,提出采用直吹式砂尘试验方式,实现整车状态的砂尘试验,并说明这种试验实施方法的科学性.依据射流理论并通过计算,得出距离吹风口不同位置处各个截面上的理论有效吹风截面,通过有效吹风截面与大型试件尺寸比较,说明这种形式的砂尘试验设备对常规武器系统具有很强的适应性.这项研究工作对砂尘试验设备的设计、调试和操作使用等具有技术指导作用.     

Strategic “defensivism” and post-reset blues: US–Russian nuclear arms reductions,missile defenses and minimum deterrence

US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy may be moving, by design and by inadvertence, toward a posture of strategic “defensivism”. Strategic “defensivism” emphasizes the overlapping and reinforcing impact of: (1) reductions in US, Russian and possibly other strategic nuclear forces, possibly down to the level of “minimum deterrence,” (2) deployment of improved strategic and/or theater antimissile defenses for the US, NATO allies and other partners; and (3) additional reliance on conventional military forces for some missions hitherto preferentially assigned to nuclear weapons. This article deals with the first two of these aspects only: the interaction between missile defenses and offensive force reductions in US–Russian strategy and policy. The findings are that stable deterrence as between the USA and Russia is possible at lower than New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty levels, but reductions below 1000 deployed long-range weapons for each state, toward a true minimum deterrent posture, will require multilateral as opposed to bilateral coordination of arms limitations. Missile defenses might provide some denial capability against light attacks by states with small arsenals, but they still fall short of meaningful damage limitation as between powers capable of massive nuclear strikes.     

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons: how safe is safe enough? Transparency versus opacity

Due to expanding and increasing religious extremism and terrorism coupled with political instability in Pakistan, most western observers believe that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not secure and could be taken over by terrorists. This would have adverse implications for the region and for global peace, especially for the security of USA and Europe. This article argues that this perception is based on a flawed understanding and knowledge of how Pakistan's command and control setup has evolved and operates. Pakistan's nuclear weapons are as safe as any other state's nuclear weapons. Pakistan has also been active in supporting and participating in global efforts to improve nuclear safety and security. Over the years, Pakistan has been quite open in sharing information regarding how it is improving its command and control system with western governments as well as scholars. This article argues that the steps Pakistan has taken to secure its nuclear weapons are adequate and that Pakistan would continue to further strengthen these measures; however, it is the expanding religious extremism, terrorism and anti-Americanism in the country which make the international perception of Pakistan extremely negative and then seep into the perception of Pakistan's nuclear weapons safety and security.     

Burning characteristics of microcellular combustible objects

Microcellular combustible objects for application of combustible case, caseless ammunition or combustible detonator-holding tubes are fabricated through one-step foaming process, in which supercritical CO₂ is used as foaming agent. The formulations consist of inert polymer binder and ultra fine RDX. For the inner porous structures of microcellular combustible objects, the cell sizes present a unimodal or bimodal distribution by adjusting the foaming conditions. Closed bomb test is to investigate the influence of both porous structure style and RDX content on burning behavior. The sample with bimodal distribution of cell sizes burns faster than that with unimodal distribution, and the concentration of RDX can influence the burning characteristics in a positive manner. In addition, the translation of laminar burning to convective burning is determined by burning rate versus pressure curves of samples at two different loading densities, and the resulting transition pressure is 30 MPa. Moreover, the samples with bigger sample size present higher burning rate, resulting in providing deeper convective depth. Dynamic vivacity of samples is also studied. The results show that the vivacity increases with RDX content and varies with inner structure.     

基于实测数据的雷达探测距离修正方法

借鉴雷达检飞的思想,以雷达在日常工作中积累下来的实际探测数据为基础,提出了雷达探测距离的修正方法,构建了相关算法和数学模型,实现了雷达探测距离的修正.既提高了雷达探测距离的精度,又避免了雷达实地检飞的难题,为雷达探测距离推算提供一种简单易行的方法.     

装备体系整体性能试验基本原理

采用理论研究的方法,分析了装备体系整体性能试验诞生的背景,阐述了相关概念,重点论述了装备体系整体性能试验的基本原理和主要内容。指出装备体系整体性能试验是当今装备试验工作发展转型的重要方向之一,但相关研究仍处在起步阶段,距离实践实施还有很长距离,所以,深入开展相关理论研究,对于该领域趋向成熟并向实践转化意义重大。     

便携式野战输油管线泵机组性能现场快速测试系统

研究了野战输油管线泵机组性能现场快速测试的问题,提出了可行科学的设计方案,完成了测试系统的软硬件设计和样机的研制.样机试验结果表明,研制的泵机组性能现场快速测试系统性能稳定,为野战输油管线泵机组性能的现场测试提供了简便可靠的测试方法.