How durable is the nuclear weapons taboo?

The nuclear weapons taboo is considered one of the strongest norms in international politics. A prohibition against using nuclear weapons has seemingly shaped state behavior for nearly seven decades and, according to some observers, made nuclear use ‘unthinkable’ today or in the future. Although scholars have shown that nuclear aversion has affected decision-making behavior, important questions about the nuclear taboo remain unanswered. This article seeks to answer a basic question: How durable is the taboo? We develop different predictions about norm durability depending on whether the taboo is based primarily on moral logic or strategic logic. We use the comparable case of the norm against strategic bombing in the 20th century to evaluate these hypotheses. The logic and evidence presented in this paper suggest that the norm of nuclear non-use is much more fragile than most analysts understand.     

How do wars end? A multidisciplinary enquiry

ABSTRACT

The cessation of military confrontations rarely coincides with the end of war. Legal and political matters continue after the last shot has been fired, civilians driven from their homes try to rebuild their houses and their lives, veterans need to adapt to their new role in civil society, and the struggle to define the history and the significance of past events only begins. In recent years, in particular, the changes in the character of contemporary warfare have created uncertainties across different disciplines about how to identify and conceptualise the end of war. It is therefore an opportune moment to examine how wars end from a multidisciplinary perspective that combines enquiries into the politics of war, the laws of war and the military and intellectual history of war. This approach enables both an understanding of how ‘the end’ as a concept informs the understanding of war in international relations, in international law and in history and a reconsideration of the nature of scientific method in the field of war studies as such.     

How do wars end? A strategic perspective

ABSTRACT

This article gives an overview of the literature on war termination both in the fields of behaviouralism social sciences and policy-oriented strategic studies. It identifies shortcomings and problems related to both lines of research. The main problem is the undifferentiated and indiscriminate use of the term ‘war’. The article proposes a categorisation of wars that could form the basis for more thorough research on the topic of war termination.     

一种可扩展的Cyber空间作战体系描述模型

研究了Cyber空间作战体系模型构建技术,提出一种面向Cyber空间作战模拟的战争系统建模新思路,并以此为基础提出了Cyber空间作战体系一体化逻辑网络模型。将Cyber空间作战涉及到的敌我双方作战实体视为一个整体系统的组分,抽象为网络模型的实体节点,实体间的各种合作、协同、对抗等不同类型交互行为统一抽象为网络模型的逻辑边。针对网络模型的节点和边分别建立了基于本体的实体描述模型和基于OO-LAMBDA语言的行为描述模型。通过一个真实战例的仿真实验验证了本文提出的方法的有效性和正确性。     

关闭部分导航信号阻止区域授时对全球定位授时性能的影响分析

在导航战中,在区域范围内阻止对手使用授时服务可通过关闭战区目标点的所有可见卫星信号来实现.以关闭部分导航信号阻止区域授时服务为例,描述了阻止区域授时服务的导航信号关闭仿真流程,提出了定位授时性能评估方法,并就关f闭部分导航信号阻止区域授时服务对全球定位服务和授时服务产生的影响进行了分析讨论.仿真结果表明,关闭部分导航信...     

基于混合星座的卫星导航系统功率增强服务性能分析

在导航战中,卫星功率增强技术是提高战区卫星导航系统生存能力的重要措施.针对导航战背景下如何保持Compass系统对我国领土及周边区域导航服务能力的问题进行了研究,提出了一种基于混合星座和最优GDOP值准则的卫星导航系统功率增强方案,并就功率增强覆盖区域在不同实现方式条件下的覆盖性、可用性和实现复杂度等性能进行了对比分析.分析结果表明,采用“5GEO +4MEO”的功率增强组合形式,可以实现对我国领土及近海区域的全天时覆盖,可用性水平达到100％( GDOP ＜6.3),同时具有实现复杂度低和系统稳定性好等特点,可作为我国区域功率增强的备选方案.     

INDISPENSABLE INTELLIGENCE AND INEVITABLE FAILURES

Preventing Catastrophe: The Use and Misuse of Intelligence in Efforts to Halt the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, by Thomas Graham Jr. and Keith A. Hansen. Stanford University Press, 2009. 300 pages, $35.     

伊拉克反美武装军事行动特点分析

伊拉克主要战事结束两年半了,反美武装成为驻伊美军最主要的作战对象.面对美军先进的武器装备,反美武装采取了灵活机动的战术手段.分析了伊拉克反美武装军事行动的几个特点.     

基于Mamdani模糊推理的核动力装置技术状态评估

分析了传统二元逻辑应用于核动力装置部分失效技术状态评估时的局限性,概述了Mamdani模糊推理的基本技术;结合状态评估实例,提出了基于Mamdani模糊推理的核动力装置系统级的技术状态评估方法,为系统部分失效的技术状态评估提供了一种新的技术途径。