Special Section: Nuclear Stability In South Asia

The question of nuclear stability in South Asia is a subject of both academic and policy significance. It is the only region in the world that has three, contiguous nuclear-armed states: India, the People's Republic of China, and Pakistan. It is also freighted with unresolved border disputes. To compound matters, all three states are now modernizing their nuclear forces and have expressed scant interest in any form of regional arms control. These issues and developments constitute the basis of this special section, which explores the problems and prospects of nuclear crisis stability in the region.     

Strategic “defensivism” and post-reset blues: US–Russian nuclear arms reductions,missile defenses and minimum deterrence

US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy may be moving, by design and by inadvertence, toward a posture of strategic “defensivism”. Strategic “defensivism” emphasizes the overlapping and reinforcing impact of: (1) reductions in US, Russian and possibly other strategic nuclear forces, possibly down to the level of “minimum deterrence,” (2) deployment of improved strategic and/or theater antimissile defenses for the US, NATO allies and other partners; and (3) additional reliance on conventional military forces for some missions hitherto preferentially assigned to nuclear weapons. This article deals with the first two of these aspects only: the interaction between missile defenses and offensive force reductions in US–Russian strategy and policy. The findings are that stable deterrence as between the USA and Russia is possible at lower than New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty levels, but reductions below 1000 deployed long-range weapons for each state, toward a true minimum deterrent posture, will require multilateral as opposed to bilateral coordination of arms limitations. Missile defenses might provide some denial capability against light attacks by states with small arsenals, but they still fall short of meaningful damage limitation as between powers capable of massive nuclear strikes.     

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons: how safe is safe enough? Transparency versus opacity

Due to expanding and increasing religious extremism and terrorism coupled with political instability in Pakistan, most western observers believe that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not secure and could be taken over by terrorists. This would have adverse implications for the region and for global peace, especially for the security of USA and Europe. This article argues that this perception is based on a flawed understanding and knowledge of how Pakistan's command and control setup has evolved and operates. Pakistan's nuclear weapons are as safe as any other state's nuclear weapons. Pakistan has also been active in supporting and participating in global efforts to improve nuclear safety and security. Over the years, Pakistan has been quite open in sharing information regarding how it is improving its command and control system with western governments as well as scholars. This article argues that the steps Pakistan has taken to secure its nuclear weapons are adequate and that Pakistan would continue to further strengthen these measures; however, it is the expanding religious extremism, terrorism and anti-Americanism in the country which make the international perception of Pakistan extremely negative and then seep into the perception of Pakistan's nuclear weapons safety and security.     

现代战争计划的设计

现代战争的战争形态和作战样式发生了巨大改变,传统战争计划的制定难以适应新的作战指挥方式。为提高作战指挥的时效性和作战决策的正确性,对现代战争的战争计划的设计要求和设计流程进行了分析,总结了需要解决的关键技术,对深入开展战争计划的设计研究具有一定的启示。     

现代战争制胜机理的理论探讨

现代战争是信息化条件下的高技术常规局部战争。现代战争制胜机理必须适应战斗力生成新要求,突出战斗力标准。从军队作战能力的视角,可将现代战争的制胜机理分为:信息力制胜、杀伤力制胜、防护力制胜、机动力制胜和保障力制胜五个方面,即所谓的"五力制胜",它们相互融合成一个有机整体,共同构成现代战争中克敌制胜的法宝。     

关闭部分导航信号阻止区域授时对全球定位授时性能的影响分析

在导航战中,在区域范围内阻止对手使用授时服务可通过关闭战区目标点的所有可见卫星信号来实现.以关闭部分导航信号阻止区域授时服务为例,描述了阻止区域授时服务的导航信号关闭仿真流程,提出了定位授时性能评估方法,并就关f闭部分导航信号阻止区域授时服务对全球定位服务和授时服务产生的影响进行了分析讨论.仿真结果表明,关闭部分导航信...     

谈侦检车在处置核泄漏灾害事故中的应用

因海啸而引起的日本福岛核电站核泄漏危机,充分警示人类必须做好有效应对核泄漏事故的准备工作。核生化侦检车具有快速标定核辐射物质、确定辐射边界的功能,消防部队应研究、掌握和应用核生化侦检技术,积极做好应对今后有可能发生的核生化灾害事故的准备工作。     

试论构建我军遂行非战争军事行动的科学机制

我军拥有丰富的遂行非战争军事行动理论总结和实践经验,但总体来说,还缺乏一个遂行具体任务的科学机制。从构建我军遂行非战争军事行动的操作机制、运行机制和保障机制入手,构建我军遂行非战争军事行动的科学机制,为新形势下我军更好地遂行非战争军事行动提供理论指导。     

基于Mamdani模糊推理的核动力装置技术状态评估

分析了传统二元逻辑应用于核动力装置部分失效技术状态评估时的局限性,概述了Mamdani模糊推理的基本技术;结合状态评估实例,提出了基于Mamdani模糊推理的核动力装置系统级的技术状态评估方法,为系统部分失效的技术状态评估提供了一种新的技术途径。     

改进非凸估计与非对称时空正则化的红外小目标检测方法

针对复杂背景下的红外小目标检测,在非对称时空正则化约束的非凸张量低秩估计算法基础上,提出了一种新的核范数估计方法代替原算法中的估计方法。提出基于结构张量与多结构元顶帽(Top-Hat)滤波的自适应权重张量对目标张量进行约束,增强目标张量稀疏性的同时抑制其中残存的强边缘结构。实验结果表明,所提改进算法能够更好地消除图像中强边缘结构对检测结果的影响,在保证检测率的情况下,较原算法具有更低的虚警率。