Provocation,war and restraint under the nuclear shadow: The Kargil conflict 1999

ABSTRACT

The Kargil conflict was a limited war between India and Pakistan fought along the Kashmir Line of Control during the spring/summer of 1999. Named for the principal town in the combat zone on the Indian side, it was the first open warfare between India and Pakistan as declared nuclear weapons states and included the first combat employment of the Indian Air Force since 1971. Despite its intensity, it was also characterised by considerable restraint on both sides. The potential for conventional escalation, however, was high and the possibility of nuclear confrontation could not be excluded. It had significant long-term ramifications for both countries and constitutes an important part of the backdrop to their relations today.     

The Management of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan, the fastest growing nuclear weapon state in the world, has established over the last decade a nuclear management system it holds to be “foolproof.” Despite the explosion of radical groups challenging the writ of the state, it dismisses concerns by critics that its nuclear weapons are not safe and secure as “preposterous” and an attempt to “malign” the state. This article examines Pakistan's nuclear management system in four functional areas: command-and-control, physical security, nuclear surety, and doctrine. It describes what is publicly known in each area, identifies areas of omission and inadequacy in each one, and examines several premises of the nuclear program the author considers to be unfounded. Comparing these deficiencies in Pakistan's nuclear management system to the current problems plaguing the US nuclear management system, the author concludes that complacency and unfounded confidence in the efficacy of such programs, if not addressed and corrected, could lead to a future nuclear catastrophe in South Asia.     

The Odyssey of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

This study examines the failures of the William J. Clinton and Barack Obama administrations to secure ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It applies an integrated analytical framework for assessing treaty ratification that builds upon previous research in order to understand why the Clinton administration failed to achieve CTBT ratification in 1999 and why the Obama administration has so far failed to advance the treaty in the Senate. The study concludes that CTBT ratification, despite Obama administration pledges of support, remains highly unlikely. Finally, the study analyzes the common domestic political factors present in both cases and suggests areas for further research.     

舰载近区防卫武器综合运用

水面舰艇近区防卫武器的作战运用研究是舰载武器作战运用研究的新课题。在分析近区防卫目标特征、武器特点、作战方法的基础上,提出近区防卫武器综合运用一般原则,基于作战时域的连续性及效果的叠加性,构建近区防卫武器使用逻辑结构,建立武器运用的对策模型,可为近区防卫武器的科学使用提供理论参考。     

空腔噪声非线性数值模拟

将雷诺平均N-S方程与非线性噪声求解方法相结合,对M219空腔在Ma=0.6,Ma=0.85,Ma=1.35条件下进行了气动噪声分析。通过雷诺平均N-S方程求解空腔流场,得到包含空腔平均流场基本特征以及强制设定的湍流脉动统计描述的初始湍流统计平均解,采用非线性噪声求解方法重构噪声源并高精度模拟压力脉动的传播。通过与试验结果对比表明非线性噪声求解方法能够较好地捕捉空腔流动中的压强脉动及噪声水平。与分离涡模拟方法相比,非线性噪声求解方法在保持计算精度的同时大大减少计算网格,对内埋弹舱快速设计具有一定的参考意义。     

Nuclear security culture enhancement: the role of culture coordinators at Russian nuclear sites

In 2002, a Nuclear Security Culture (NSC) Enhancement Program with the mission to raise the level of the NSC at sites and facilities in Russia's nuclear complex was launched under the guidance of the Russian State Corporation “ROSATOM” and with support from the US Department of Energy. A Joint Working Group for NSC with both Russian Federation and US members was formed and charged with the design and implementation of the program. The program was implemented at sites and facilities on a pilot basis. Nine sites participated in the Pilot Project. The key program component was an establishment of Culture Coordinators (CCs) with the authority to coordinate and implement NSC enhancement activities at sites and facilities. The CCs have served as the force that has maintained the momentum of the Pilot Project and continuously steered the site NSC enhancement efforts. The contribution of the CCs in achieving the positive outcomes of the program cannot be overstated.     

高功率微波武器攻击卫星有效载荷系统可行性分析

高功率微波武器是近几年发展起来的定向能武器之一,被认为是在未来制天权争夺的战场上对卫星有效载荷最大的威胁之一.首先对高功率微波武器的关键技术及技术途径进行了讨论,然后描述了高功率微波对目标损伤的机理和耦合途径,最后根据高功率微波的不同耦合途径对卫星有效载荷受到攻击的可行性进行了详细的分析,计算结果表明,高功率微波武器在高峰值功率或距离很近的情况下都会对未进行电磁加固的卫星有效载荷产生损害.     

Egypt: new government,old challenges

The new government in Egypt will have to deal with the following challenges in its foreign policy: the Palestinians, Sinai, the arms race between Israel and Egypt, the nuclear issue, the Suez Canal, and the Tiran Straits. Egypt has to decide what its approach would be toward these issues and as to how to maneuver between its own interests and those of other states such as Israel and the USA. All the sides have to consider their steps carefully in order to avoid an unnecessary crisis.     

Russia,America and missile defense

Russia has sharply objected to US plans for ballistic missile defense. The Russian official explanation is that the real purpose of the US missile defense plan is to make it impossible for Russia to retaliate against a US nuclear (or massive conventional) attack, thus making Russia subject to military blackmail by the US. The Russian response has been the result of a sum total of various factors, mostly political and cultural, while the technical capabilities of the proposed system have played a secondary role.     

临近空间武器对预警探测制导技术的挑战

临近空间进攻武器具有速度快、射程远、机动性强的特点,对未来空天安全构成重大威胁.简要综述了国内外临近空间武器的发展现状、主要特点及特性,包括高超声速巡航导弹和高速滑翔弹头两大主要威胁,从预警探测和探测制导的角度,指出了预警探测制导技术在应对临近空间进攻武器上面临的严峻挑战,提出了对其关键技术和技术途径的几点思考.