基于AHP的装备研制项目风险分析方法

把AHP(Analytic H ierarchy Process)方法运用于装备研制项目风险分析,实现了风险因素的排序、系统总风险的评价以及风险响应措施的选择。在风险发生概率和风险损失的基础上,将风险因素的可控制性和用户满意度风险也同时作为风险判断准则,使得风险的评价更合理、更准确地反映项目实际。最后给出了风险因素排序及风险响应措施选择的应用实例。     

基于移动Agent的特定数值求解算法研究

在分布式环境下,运用移动Agent技术实现大型复杂系统研究中经常使用的特定数值算法求解,可显著提高计算效率。以分支定界法为例,介绍了其设计思想和实践步骤,并对算法的时间复杂度进行了分析。     

回归分析在漏磁定量检测中的应用

通过分析漏磁场,选取法向分量的峰峰值和峰峰值间距作为漏磁通信号的特征量。重点介绍了多元回归分析模型理论、参数估计方法和回归模型的假设检验,得到缺陷宽度、深度与峰峰值和峰峰值间距之间的回归模型,最后利用漏磁数据对回归模型进行了检验,结果表明预测缺陷宽度和深度的误差不超过10%,利用回归分析能够实现漏磁检测的定量化。     

导弹服役年限建模与分析

影响导弹服役年限的主要因素有自然因素、技术因素以及经济因素。合理地确定导弹的服役年限,是减少军费开支、降低导弹全寿命费用的有效途径。从导弹服役年限的概念入手,在提出用经济寿命法确定导弹的服役年限的基础上,通过数学分析,建立经济模型和经济比较模型,确定了导弹服役年限,并结合实例进行了仿真和验证,从而证明了模型的实际应用价值。     

带壳体云爆弹药液体燃料抛撒的数值模拟

建立了带壳体云爆弹药数值模拟模型,分析了圆柱壳体的断裂准则。壳体材料采用Johnson-Cook热粘性本构方程,断裂准则采用Taylor断裂应力准则,应用Autodyn软件进行了数值模拟,给出了内部爆炸载荷下液体燃料的压力曲线和速度曲线,并进行了分析。     

数值模拟气液针栓式火箭发动机喷雾燃烧对声学激励的响应

为研究气液针栓式火箭发动机的声学振荡特性并为其优化设计提供指导,加工了具有矩形燃烧室的LOX/GCH₄针栓式发动机,采用Euler-Lagrange方法仿真横向速度扰动产生的声学响应,以期在热试前了解声学激励频率对非稳态喷雾燃烧过程的影响。仿真结果表明,采用的横向速度扰动能在燃烧室内产生同频率的一阶横向声学振荡响应。喷雾燃烧对声学激励的响应强弱受扰动频率与燃烧室一阶横向振荡模态固有频率的相对大小影响较大。当扰动频率与该固有频率相等时,压力和燃烧释热随速度扰动出现同相振荡,压力振荡幅值显著增高导致燃烧室前半段的喷雾和火焰同步摆动;同时,燃烧室内存在扩散燃烧变为预混燃烧的趋势,甲烷在更短的距离内燃烧完全且燃烧室温度趋于均匀。     

无人机集群反制技术剖析

无人机集群作战具有作战效能高、战场生存能力强、效费比极高的巨大优势,将给传统防空系统带来巨大挑战。现有反无人机集群技术大多来源于反无人机技术,但反平台与反集群存在显著差异,必须针对无人机集群自身技战术特点,加强对精确/高效/低成本的集群反制技术研究。因此,本文以剖析无人机集群反制技术的可行性为出发点,首先,从反无人机集群作战视角,将无人机集群划分为无自主时空协同型(Ⅰ类)、半自主编组协同型(Ⅱ类)、全自主任务协同型(Ⅲ类)三种类型,明确Ⅱ类无人机集群为主要反制对象;其次,深入分析无人机集群的技术弱点与战术劣势,以此作为无人机集群反制技术可行性的关键切入点;最后,梳理出七大类有效的无人机集群反制技术,并对其可行性进行分析,以期为未来无人机集群反制技术发展方向提供参考。     

Research on the intermediate phase of 40CrMnSiB steel shell under different heat treatments

In this study, 40CrMnSiB steel cylindrical shells were tempered at 350, 500 and 600 ℃ to study the effect of tempering temperature on the dynamic process of expansion and fracture of the metal shell. A mid-explosion recovery experiment for the metal cylinder under internal explosive loading was designed, and the wreckage of the casings at the intermediate phase was obtained. The effects of different tempering temperatures on the macroscopic and microscopic fracture characteristics of 40CrMnSiB steel were studied. The influence of tempering temperatures on the fracture characteristic parameters of the recovered wreckage were measured and analyzed, including the circumferential divide size, the thick-ness and the number of the circumferential divisions. The results show that as the tempering temper-ature was increased from 350 to 600 ℃, at first, the degree of fragmentation and the fracture characteristic parameters of the recovered wreckage changed significantly and then became essentially consistent. Scanning electron microscopy analysis revealed flow-like structure characteristics caused by adiabatic shear on different fracture surfaces. At the detonation initiation end of the casing, fracturing was formed by tearing along the crack, which existed a distance from the initiation end and propagated along the axis direction. In contrast, the fracturing near the middle position consists of a plurality of radial shear fracture units. The amount of alloy carbide that was precipitated during the tempering process increased continuously with tempering temperature, leading to an increasing number of spherical carbide particles scattered around the fracture surface.     

Thermal and combustion behavior of Al-MnO2 nanothermite with poly(vinylidene fluoride -co- hexafluoropropylene) energetic binder

Fluoropolymers get increasing attention in energetic materials application due to the high fluorine content. To explore the effect of poly(vinylidene fluoride-co-hexafluoropropylene) (P(VDF-HFP)) on Al/MnO2 nanothermite, the samples with different contents are prepared and characterized by SEM, TG-DSC, XRD, and their ignition and combustion behavior are tested and recorded. The results show that P(VDF-HFP) as an energetic binder can combine the nanothermite components together, even exist in the gaps. The integrity of energetic materials has been improved. Thermal analysis shows that the addition of P(VDF-HFP) greatly changes the thermal reaction processes, and the exothermic peaks appear early, but the utilization of fuel and oxidizer is not efficient from the XRD results. Furthermore, the appropriate addition of P(VDF-HFP) can directly reduce the ignition energy threshold and increase the combustion time, which is necessary for the potential ignition charge application. The possible reasons for above phenomena are discussed and analyzed. This research provides a reference for improvement of thermite-based ignition charge formulation.