空对地定向攻击的作战效能评估

主要研究攻击机在定轴发射导弹时,对地面线状目标定向攻击的作战效能评估。攻击机飞向目标区的方式有两种,即攻击机飞向目标区的速度方向与线状目标的长边成一固定角和平行于该长边。详细研究了该攻击机的可攻击区边界,给出了攻击机机动攻击目标的最近距离,从而确定了作战效能评估的数学模型。     

基于码相扩展的TTCM直序扩频系统研究

提出了一种基于码相扩展扩频信号集上的TTCM直接序列扩频系统方案,通过将Turbo编码与扩频映射相结合,使得信号之间的最小欧氏距离增加,从而在不增加发射功率、不减小信息速率、不改变调制方式的前提下提高了系统的误码率性能.仿真结果表明,基于码相扩展的TTCM直序扩频系统可以比单纯直序扩频多获得1～3dB的编码增益,同时对载波初相估计误差和相位噪声的敏感程度并不增加.     

结合动态时间弯曲与决策树方法的液体火箭发动机故障诊断

对某大型液体火箭发动机的热试车数据及通过发动机模型仿真得到的故障数据进行动态时间弯曲分析,得到弯曲路径集,然后结合决策树方法进行了故障检测和诊断。对于故障试车没有出现漏报警和误报警,对于正常试车没有出现误报警。通过与神经网络、支持向量机等方法所得结果的对比,证明该方法可以成功地应用于火箭发动机的故障检测和诊断。     

多属性模糊决策对舰炮射击目标优选

舰炮在现代高科技条件下海战中承担着重要的作战使命和任务,它能否完成被赋予的作战使命和任务,射击目标的优选起着决定性作用.为解决舰炮射击目标优选、决策问题,研究分析了多属性模糊决策方法,以及影响舰炮射击目标优选的因素,提出了多属性模糊决策方法的数学模型和求解最优射击目标排序的新方法.该方法在舰炮射击目标优选中的应用实例表明:通过定量和定性相结合,专家判断和信息处理相结合的多属性模糊决策方法对舰炮射击目标优选、决策具有一定的借鉴意义.     

A sequential partial information bomber-defender shooting problem

A bomber carrying homogenous weapons sequentially engages ground targets capable of retaliation. Upon reaching a target, the bomber may fire a weapon at it. If the target survives the direct fire, it can either return fire or choose to hold fire (play dead). If the former occurs, the bomber is immediately made aware that the target is alive. If no return fire is seen, the true status of the target is unknown to the bomber. After the current engagement, the bomber, if still alive, can either re-engage the same target or move on to the next target in the sequence. The bomber seeks to maximize the expected cumulative damage it can inflict on the targets. We solve the perfect and partial information problems, where a target always fires back and sometimes fires back respectively using stochastic dynamic programming. The perfect information scenario yields an appealing threshold based bombing policy. Indeed, the marginal future reward is the threshold at which the control policy switches and furthermore, the threshold is monotonic decreasing with the number of weapons left with the bomber and monotonic nondecreasing with the number of targets left in the mission. For the partial information scenario, we show via a counterexample that the marginal future reward is not the threshold at which the control switches. In light of the negative result, we provide an appealing threshold based heuristic instead. Finally, we address the partial information game, where the target can choose to fire back and establish the Nash equilibrium strategies for a representative two target scenario.     

FN-IOWA算子的模糊弹性决策作战效能评估

群决策中往往参与决策的单位或专家会来自不同的专业和部门,这些决策者具有不同的性质.为了处理不同性质决策者之间的模糊信息,引入模糊弹性决策的概念.传统作战效能评估往往是由单一性质的决策者进行,这样会失掉很多专业信息,也会使评估结果片面.基于FN-IOWA算子的模糊弹性决策方法能融合评估中的模糊信息,有效完善传统作战效能评估方法,使评估结果更合理.     

基于Markov决策支持系统的坦克排作战效能预测

分析了Markov模型的一般预测过程,建立了一种基于Markov决策支持系统的作战效能预测分析模型,根据坦克排在担负不同作战任务时的特点,给出了坦克排作战效能预测分析的应用实例,预测分析的结果表明,该模型能够对作战态势做以正确的预测,有利于指挥员更好地进行兵力部署,发挥坦克排作战的最佳效能.     

Simultaneous determination of production and maintenance schedules using in‐line equipment condition and yield information

In many manufacturing environments, equipment condition has a significant impact on product quality, or yield. This paper presents a semi‐Markov decision process model of a single‐stage production system with multiple products and multiple maintenance actions. The model simultaneously determines maintenance and production schedules, accounting for the fact that equipment condition affects the yield of each product differently. It extends earlier work by allowing the expected time between decision epochs to vary by both action and machine state, by allowing multiple maintenance actions, and by treating the outcome of maintenance as less than certain. Sufficient conditions are developed that ensure the monotonicity of both the optimal production and maintenance actions. While the maintenance conditions closely resemble previously studied conditions for this type of problem, the production conditions represent a significant departure from earlier results. The simultaneous solution method is compared to an approach commonly used in industry, where the maintenance and production problems are treated independently. Solving more than one thousand test problems confirms that the combination of both features of the model—accounting for product differences and solving the problems simultaneously—has a significant impact on performance. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

装备预防性维修的维修级别逻辑决策分析方法

针对预防性维修的维修级别没有规范、统一的分析与确定方法的问题,研究了预防性维修的维修级别逻辑决策分析方法。明确了预防性维修的维修级别决策分析的对象是预防性维修工作类型,预防性维修主要有定时维修和状态维修,定时维修分为定时拆修和定时报废2种维修工作类型,状态维修分为状态信息检测、状态识别、状态预测、维修决策、故障诊断和维修实施等维修工作类型。根据维修间隔期、维修能力评估、其它非经济性因素以及经济性分析,分别建立了定时维修和状态维修的维修级别逻辑决策模型。     

基于理想解法的空中加油机驻地分配选择

一体化联合作战条件下,跨战区、跨军兵种实施空中加油将更加频繁,空中加油机驻地分配选择对空中加油任务的实施有重要影响。分析了影响空中加油机驻地分配选择的主要因素,以此确定决策指标,这是一个多指标综合评价问题。基于理想解法的原理和方法,构建了空中加油机驻地分配选择决策的数学模型。通过示例分析表明,该方法计算简单,较好地解决了空中加油机驻地分配选择问题,并可在此基础上做进一步研究,为实际应用中解决类似问题提供了一种新思路。