THE NPT

This article assesses the successes and failures of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since its creation in 1968 by developing and applying a set of “metrics” to each of the NPT's substantive articles as well as to its withdrawal provisions. In light of this analysis, the article also puts forward some specific proposals for strengthening the NPT and its implementation, with a view to the debate and decisions at the upcoming 2010 NPT Review Conference. A concluding section turns explicitly to the 2010 NPT Review Conference and proposes pursuit of agreement on three NPT Action Plans: one for nonproliferation, one for peaceful uses, and one for nuclear disarmament. Combining vision and practicable steps, these Action Plans would set out a roadmap for action between the 2010 and the 2015 NPT Review Conferences. They could provide a foundation for substantive exchanges—in this case, on progress toward their implementation—during the preparations for the 2015 conference.     

基于免疫遗传算法的人上位拣选车作业规划问题求解

针对人上位拣选车的作业轨迹规划问题构建了具有附加安全约束条件的时间最优控制数学模型,并提出了一种免疫遗传求解算法．该算法较单纯遗传算法有效避免了种群退化,且收敛速度更快．实验表明,该算法适用于求解人上位拣选车的作业轨迹规划问题．     

基于Prony算法合闸于故障保护方案

将Prony分析方法应用于断路器合闸于故障保护。利用Matlab软件对断路器合闸于输电线路故障和非故障情况下的暂态过程进行建模和仿真,对合闸后半个周波或1个周波输电线路保护安装处实测的电流数据进行采样,应用Pronv算法对其进行分析,提取出此暂态电流中包含的各次自振荡分量的各个特征量,识别出线路中是否存在故障。仿真证明：该分析方法可在合闸后半个周波或1个周波准确求出合闸操作暂态过程中各次频率的分量,从而正确识别线路的故障。     

五冗余捷联惯组系统配置及优化

以五冗余陀螺惯组为平台,讨论了捷联惯性测量组合冗余设计方案,以系统导航精度最优为性能指标,引入了三种性能指标函数,并分析了这三种性能指标函数在使用过程中的等价性,最后研究了三正交两斜置结构的五轴冗余惯组系统的最优配置方法,并在考虑到量测精度对配置影响的条件下,通过理论分析和计算得到了最优配置的安装角,具有较强的工程实用性。     

试论性能化防火设计在消防监督工作中的局限性——以某商业综合体为例

近年来,超大体量建设工程大多通过性能化防火设计方法解决超规范设计的问题,虽然性能化防火设计在理论、模拟计算和分析论证上满足设定安全目标,但设计评估过程忽视我国国情、社会环境影响、公民素质及安全管理水平等实际情况,过分依赖后期管理,如处理不当,极易产生新的消防安全隐患.以某商业综合体为例,分析性能化防火设计的建筑物在实际消防监督工作中的局限性,旨在提醒各级消防监管部门、性能化设计评估单位、评审专家充分认识外部环境对性能化设计方案的影响,使性能化设计更加符合实际.     

《孙子兵法》中的“利害观”

兵家的辩证法是中国古代哲学的重要源头之一。在孙子提出的一系列对立统一的矛盾范畴中,尤以对利害关系的把握最为精彩,这是孙子辩证法的精髓。“利害观”是孙子解剖战争问题的一把利器,把握住了利害关系的要义,就不难理解“慎战”“不战”“全胜”等核心观念。同时,它也是人们在面临人生道路上各种得失选择时的方法指南。     

基于险度函数的装备供应链库存风险损失度量

目前,对供应链库存风险损失的定量研究比较少,而定量研究中鲜有对风险偏好变化问题的研究,因此首先分析了各种风险度量方法,通过比较采用了险度函数作为对装备供应链风险损失的度量方法;然后,结合装备供应链实际,提出了定常风险偏好特性险度函数和可变风险偏好特性险度函数的适用范围,以及装备供应链库存风险损失度量的损失水平值,并给出了装备供应链库存风险损失度量函数;最后,通过算例进行了验证.实验结果表明:行为人的不同风险偏好特性会对同一事态产生不同的预判,进而可能影响对风险的决策,这是符合客观现实的.     

‘Full spectrum dominance’: Donald Rumsfeld,the Department of Defense,and US irregular warfare strategy, 2001–2008

This article examines the evolution of US irregular warfare (IW) doctrine and practice from 2001 onwards. It argues that, after 9/11, top-tier civilian policymakers in the US Department of Defense (DoD) and across the US government developed a heightened awareness of asymmetric threats and non-conventional forms of warfare, especially those shaped by contemporary globalisation. The result was a gradual turn towards irregular warfare, led by Rumsfeld and the DoD, designed to ensure ‘full spectrum dominance’ across all modes of conflict. This pre-dated the insurgency in Iraq and the promotion of counterinsurgency in the US Army by General David Petraeus and others. Policymakers' reluctance to acknowledge the insurgency in Iraq was not down to a failure to understand the concept of IW, but because they had viewed Iraq in conventional terms for so many years and were reluctant to admit their mistake.     

空中目标运动参数实时测量系统

为了实现对飞机等远距离空中目标运动参数的实时测量,设计了目标自动跟踪测量系统,并对该系统的硬、软件组成及关键技术进行了研究。组建验证样机,进行软件框架设计及功能模块分析,通过实测实验详细测试了系统的工作性能。静态验证实验结果表明:测距结果稳定在1mm以内,方位测量结果稳定在5″以内。动态验证实验结果表明:对运动目标的实时测距误差为2mm,实时测距频率为5Hz;方位测量误差为0.05°,姿态测量误差维持在0.2°以内,方位和姿态实时测量频率均为20Hz。因此,系统满足空中目标运动参数稳定可靠、高精度的自动实时测量需求。     

Africa and the 2015 NPT Review Conference

African states' attendance at and participation in the preparations for the 2015 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has produced mixed results, with the continent acting as both agent and bystander in respect of certain issues. African agency is evident in, for example, its position as a member of groupings on Iran's nuclear weapons programme and the Middle East Nuclear Weapons Free Zone. Less agency is evident in states' individual actions. This underscores the importance of African states' preference for multilateralism. However, African agency is also less evident in African multilateral efforts at the NPT preparatory meetings. The impact of these developments on the 2015 NPT Review Conference is too soon to tell but may bode ill for African agency.