导弹预警卫星对助推段导弹的探测能力建模

导弹预警卫星在导弹防御体系中处在最前沿,在导弹的早期预警中起着其他装备无法替代的作用。分析了导弹预警卫星的工作原理与作战流程,从覆盖范围、最大探测距离以及检测概率3个方面对导弹预警卫星的探测能力进行了数学建模,并利用所建模型分析了美国导弹预警卫星的探测能力,为导弹预警卫星的探测能力评估奠定了理论基础。     

Conjectures for framing cyberwarfare

Cyberspace has emerged as a potentially new (and unconventional) domain for warfare. Much debate has focused on understanding cyber conflict. The ability to critically analyse this phenomenon is important; however, the nascent nature of cyberwarfare and the complexity of the systems involved create challenges not met by conventional approaches. As a first step, this requires an analytical construct to frame discussions in a way that highlights distinct characteristics of the cyber domain. An approach proposed is one of the postulating conjectures for debate as a way to achieve this and to demonstrate its use, both at the strategic and operational levels. It is suggested that such an approach provides one component of a mature analytical framework for the analysis of cyber across a range of warfare domains.     

基于目标满意度的舰载直升机保障能力评估

针对目前我国舰载直升机保障能力评估方面存在数据不完整、评估指标权重不确定的问题,研究了基于目标满意度的舰载直升机保障能力评估方法。通过调研并参考陆基直升机的保障经验,构建了舰载直升机保障能力评估指标体系;在原始样本数据的基础上,以区间数形式给出权重范围,利用满意度模型对权重进行优化,最终得出评估结果,解决了在部分权重信息下、以满意度为评估目的的评估问题。实例分析表明:该方法实用性较强,适用于现阶段舰载直升机保障能力评估问题,具有一定的应用价值。     

多轴特种车辆轮胎系统抗毁伤能力等毁线表征方法

为了探究战场威胁下多轴特种车辆轮胎系统的生存概率,对轮胎系统的抗毁伤能力进行量化表征,提出了一种基于等毁线的轮胎系统抗毁伤能力表征方法。针对轮胎毁伤状态下对整车的影响,基于车辆动力学对轮胎系统的力学特性进行量化表征,建立了轮胎系统功能毁伤的计算模型;采用毁伤理论对冲击波超压场进行弹目交会和量化分析,建立了轮胎系统物理毁伤的计算模型;根据爆心与车辆的位置关系,采用面向车辆全面域的计算特征线,建立了轮胎系统等毁线计算模型。以某型五轴特种车辆为例,进行了表征方法验证。研究结果表明:该表征方法可应用于战场威胁下多轴特种车辆轮胎系统的抗毁伤能力表征,为后续机动规避和防护能力提升奠定模型基础。     

针对官兵能力个体差异做好部队训练工作

正确认识能力的多样性及个体差异,有利于增强部队训练工作的科学性,提高战斗力。由于“能力”理解的多样性,对部队训练能力的认识也具有多个层面的涵义。个体在部队训练中体现出发展水平、结构、表现时间以及性别的差异。正确认识这些差异需要走出认知上的误区,做好“两头人”的工作,充分发挥“三互小组”的作用以及制定不同阶段的具体目标等。     

An enterprise portfolio approach for defence capability planning

Capability-based planning (CBP) is considered by many defence organisations to be the best practice for enterprise-level planning, analysis and management. This approach, loosely based around investment portfolio theory, is premised on balancing the cost, benefit and risk of capability options across the defence enterprise. However a number of authors have recently noted limitations of its current applications. The authors propose a more general, insurance-based approach, which can support the evolutionary improvement of the current CBP approach. This approach is implemented as hedging-based planning and aims to better reflect the enterprise nature of defence organisations, capturing both force structure and force generation aspects of military systems.     

基于信息链的防空作战体系能力分析方法

针对要地防空指挥控制系统的组成、结构和功能,通过双层图对作战体系结构进行建模,提出体现作战体系作战业务流程、信息连通性的双层信息链搜索和解析方法,实现了将信息链与作战体系能力分析的有机关联。仿真验证表明,该方法有效地体现了在作战体系能力分析中,各类型作战实体的协作性和连通性,提高了作战体系作战能力与体系结构的融合能力,利于作战体系的作战效能评估。     

基于复杂网络的联合作战指挥体系研究

以作战指挥理论需求为牵引,从复杂网络的角度对联合作战指挥体系问题进行网络抽象,将指挥体系中的指挥机构作为网络的节点,将指挥关系作为网络的边,按照指挥体系历史发展的规律,从简单到复杂,分别构建了传统层级纵长树状型的指挥体系网络模型,在树状模型基础上,增加了横向联系但依然具有层级结构的信息共享改进型的指挥体系网络模型,以及...     

Explaining US and British performance in complex expeditionary operations: The civil-military dimension

A nation's structure and culture of civil-military relations are important and largely overlooked factors in explaining the performance of armed forces involved in complex expeditionary operations. The US model of ‘Huntingtonian’, divided civil-military structures and poor interagency cooperation, makes the US military less suited for complex expeditionary operations. British civil-military relations involve a Defence Ministry that conscientiously integrates military and civilian personnel, as well as extensive interagency cooperation and coordination. This ‘Janowitzean’, integrated form of civil-military relations makes the British military more likely to provide for the planning and implementation of comprehensive campaigns that employ and coordinate all instruments of power available to the state, as well as troops in the field displaying the flexibility and cultural and political understanding that are necessary in complex expeditionary operations.     

Analyzing Taliban taranas (chants): an effective Afghan propaganda artifact

This article describes and analyzes a little understood Afghan Taliban propaganda tool: chants or taranas . These melodic refrains effectively use historical narratives, symbology, and iconic portraits. The chants are engendered in emotions of sorrow, pride, desperation, hope, and complaints to mobilize and convince the Afghan population of the Taliban's worldview. The chants represent culturally relevant and simple messages that are communicated in a narrative and poetic form that is familiar to and resonates with the local people. They are virtually impossible for the United States and NATO to counter because of Western sensitivities concerning religious themes that dominate the Taliban narrative space, not to mention the lack of Western linguistic capabilities, including the understanding and mastering the poetic nature of local dialects.