South Africa's threat environment: a guide for the National Planning Commission

Abstract

The mandate of South Africa's recently appointed National Planning Commission includes addressing ‘defence and security matters’. This article seeks to outline the central elements of the threat environment facing South Africa in the foreseeable future. It is argued that South Africa faces no meaningful existential threat from conventional military forces but that its security forces will need to be prepared to address possible raids and attacks by conventional military forces both on home soil and on vital interests beyond the nation's borders. Other threats highlighted include the threats posed by potential insurgencies, by terrorism, and by crime, social unrest and banditry. Also addressed is the danger of so-called hybrid threats, in which two or more of the single threat types outlined here are combined. Finally, the article challenges the National Planning Commission to rethink South Africa's policy on peace operations in the light of the need to ensure the safety and security of the nation's citizenry.     

Police Corruption: Towards a Working Definition

According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) publication Interpretive Guidance on the Notion of Direct Participation in Hostilities under International Humanitarian Law, all civilians (including child soldiers) lose their immunity from direct targeting ‘for so long as’ their actions amount to direct participation in hostilities. All civilians can, however, access the revolving door of protection and return to their civilian activities – complete with full immunity from direct targeting – provided the nature of their direct participation was spontaneous and disorganised. Once it can be ascertained that their participation in hostilities amounts to continuous combative functions, they relinquish their access to the revolving door of protection, and can be targeted at all times until they abandon their formal or functional membership of the belligerent group. This piece analyses how the revolving door phenomenon and the notion of continuous combative functions apply in instances where civilian child soldiers are directly participating in hostilities.     

‘Fighting for peace’

In Africa, most of the present conflicts are civil, intra-state wars where belligerent groups use guerrilla tactics to achieve various political, economic or ideological objectives. The atrocities and the effect of these on-going wars on innocent civilians, human suffering, poverty and development are beyond comprehension. Not surprisingly, the majority of current peace operations are in Africa, with more than 70 countries contributing forces to these conflict zones. On the continent, South Africa has come to assume a leading role in peace operations and is now a major troop-contributing country to UN and AU missions. In the past 11 years, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) has taken part in no fewer than 14 peace missions. This article provides a brief background of the conflicts in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan, the different United Nations (UN) and African Union (AU) mandates under which peacekeepers had to operate as well as their objectives, and the extent of South Africa's involvement in the various missions. In the last section, the major challenges, that these operations have posed are highlighted.     

Jihad or qatal? Examining Al Qaeda's modus operandi

There is widespread acknowledgment that the modus operandi of jihadis affiliated with Al Qaeda and associated movements (AQAM) relies on brutal terror-inducing tactics which, more often than not, target Muslim and non-Muslim non-combatants. This article comparatively analyzes the AQAM modus operandi within the traditional stipulations of Islamic precepts with respect to waging jihad al saghir. The purpose is to glean whether or not such tactics such as suicide bombings, declaring fellow Muslim apostates in order to kill them, use of IEDs and EFPs to target civilians, constitute legitimate rules of engagement in jihad al saghir.     

Through the Looking Glass: The Soviet Military-Technical Revolution and the American Revolution in Military Affairs

The roots of the information technology Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) can be traced to the mid-1970s, when the West capitalized on scientific-technological developments to neutralize the threat posed by Soviet second echelons. However, the cultivation of the technological seeds of the American RMA preceded the maturation of the conceptual ones. Although it was the US that was laying the technological groundwork for the RMA, Soviet, rather than the American military theorists, were the first to argue that the new range of technological innovations constituted a fundamental discontinuity in the nature of war, which they dubbed the ‘Military-Technical Revolution’ (MTR). About a decade later, this fundamental Soviet approach to the transformations in military affairs was analyzed, adapted and adopted by the US, and designated the RMA. This article deals with the intellectual history of the Soviet MTR and the American RMA.     

‘Immediate redress’: USS Potomac and the pirates of Quallah Batoo

Maritime interests in the twenty-first century are not immune to the growing number of irregular challenges and hybrid threats that have come to dominate land warfare. In order to better understand these challenges a study of naval history can help provide a vital foundation. In the early 1830s the United States Navy dispatched the frigate USS Potomac to Sumatra to investigate a pirate attack on the spice trader Friendship. Potomac's crew of sailors and Marines conducted a landing at the village Quallah Batoo and fought a pitched battle. As the navies of the world approach naval irregular warfare in the new century, studying past examples like Potomac's mission can help illuminate the principles of successful naval irregular warfare.     

An Imperfect Jewel: Military Theory and the Military Profession

This article explores a perennial theme in the literature of strategic studies: the relationship between military theory and the military profession. It begins with a conceptual analysis of this relationship. It then investigates what military theorists themselves have had to say about the utility of their craft. It concludes by assessing the actual influence of military theory on selected individuals and institutions. The individuals are George S. Patton, Jr., and Ulysses S. Grant. The institutions are the United States Army and the United States Air Force in the late twentieth century. The fundamental finding is suggested in the title: military theory can indeed be quite useful in the maturation of military commanders and in the development of martial institutions, but it is not always necessary and by no means perfect. It should thus be studied assiduously but used with caution.     

对高校干部“双肩挑”模式的理性分析

高校干部"双肩挑"是目前高校普遍存在的管理模式,在高校教学科研中发挥着重要作用,是学校管理干部队伍中一支重要力量,同时又存在着不可回避的矛盾和问题。本文对"双肩挑"模式发挥的作用和存在的问题进行分析,最后有针对性的提出了几点改革对策。     

新疆少数民族大学生学习心理状况调查研究

本研究以"中国大学生学习性投入调查问卷"(NSSE-China)为工具,对新疆8所高校的少数民族大学生的学习动力、学业成就期望、专业兴趣、学习快乐感、学习意义感进行了实证研究,总体揭示其在学习心理状况上的表现情况。结果显示:新疆少数民族大学生的学习动力并不乐观;学业成就期望有待提高;专业兴趣并不理想;学习快乐感和意义感有待进一步改善。本研究针对以上问题对进一步改善新疆少数民族大学生学习心理状况提出具体建议。     

大学生领悟社会支持与应对方式的相关研究

对某校1000名本科生进行问卷调查,考察大学生应对方式特点和社会支持水平之间的关系。方法:领悟社会支持量表(PSSS)、《简易应对方式问卷》(SCSQ)作为测查工具,测查了1000名大学生。结果:①生源变量在领悟社会支持和应对方式各维度上差异没有统计学意义。②领悟社会支持和应对方式在性别、年级、专业变量上有显著差异,男性多运用积极应对方式;大二学生在消极应对方式上得分最高;大四学生他人支持和积极应对方式上得分最高。③领悟社会支持和积极应对正相关,领悟社会支持得分越高,越倾向采取积极的应对方式。