French Arms Exports and Intrastate Conflicts: An Empirical Investigation

The aim of this article is to evaluate how French Major Conventional Weapons (MCW) exports impact on the conflict intensity of recipient countries. The recent increase in French arms exports seems to contradict the French political discourse on the promotion of regional stability. We run zero-inflated ordered probit model in order to analyze the role of the arms trade on the intensity of civil conflicts in 144 countries from 1992 to 2014, using SIPRI and UCDP/PRIO data. Our results suggest that French MCW exports tended not to exacerbate intrastate conflicts during this period. This finding is robust to changes in the empirical framework. We propose two lines of explanations: France seems to be prone to choosing partners that respect human rights and selling more ‘defense-oriented’ MCW than the rest of the world.     

ALBANIA'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS CON

In 2003, the Albanian government declared that in late 2002 it had discovered a heretofore unknown cache of 16 tons of chemical weapons. Tirana requested and received assistance from the West in securing and destroying the materials, a task completed in 2007. Albania has been lauded for its responsible handling of the discovery and for being the first nation to complete the destruction of its chemical weapons under the terms of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). This article argues that the Albanian government has always knowingly possessed the weapons, keeping them a secret until a post-September 11, 2001 international focus on weapons of mass destruction made it politically worthwhile for Tirana to declare and destroy them. The likelihood that the governments of the West turned a willful blind eye to this chain of events is troubling for the credibility of the CWC and confidence in nonproliferation measures in general. Finally, the author recommends measures to avoid and address similar situations in the future.     

单一流空情生成模型仿真

根据单一流空情的特点,立足贴近实战的要求,分别建立了空袭批数模型、航路生成模型、批次序号模型、类别指数模型、任务指数模型、编队数目模型和干扰模型共7个模型,并且按人工给定航路的方法进行了单一流空情生成的仿真实验,验证了该模型与以往模型相比具有一定的进步性,对防空兵作战仿真系统的开发具有一定的参考价值。     

等离子体销毁日本遗弃化学武器排放气体采集方法选择探讨

等离子体销毁日本化学武器是目前正在探索的新课题,销毁过程排放尾气采集方法是该课题中需研究的内容之一。在认真分析、综合比较的基础上,提出了适应等离子体销毁日本遗弃化学武器的排放尾气采集方法的看法及其须关注的问题。     

信息战与雷达

从信息战的特点出发 ,着重说明雷达在信息战中的地位和作用。对于 2 1世纪在高技术条件下可能发生的战争的形式和特点 ,人们是很不熟悉的 ,对现代战争的许多情况还无法准确预计。现代战争的主要形式之一是信息战 ,其信息来源的主要提供者是雷达。要求雷达具有完善的功能、高质量、高可靠性。研究和发展雷达新技术、新设备是反抗入侵者的需要 ,是增强国力的有效措施。     

高功率微波武器攻击卫星有效载荷系统可行性分析

高功率微波武器是近几年发展起来的定向能武器之一,被认为是在未来制天权争夺的战场上对卫星有效载荷最大的威胁之一.首先对高功率微波武器的关键技术及技术途径进行了讨论,然后描述了高功率微波对目标损伤的机理和耦合途径,最后根据高功率微波的不同耦合途径对卫星有效载荷受到攻击的可行性进行了详细的分析,计算结果表明,高功率微波武器在高峰值功率或距离很近的情况下都会对未进行电磁加固的卫星有效载荷产生损害.     

灰色预测模型在非致命武器经济寿命预测中的应用

针对目前非致命武器经济寿命方面的研究相当缺乏的现状,结合非致命武器的自身特点,在全面分析装备全寿命周期费用的基础上,引入灰色理论,运用GM（1,1）模型对非致命武器的经济寿命周期费用进行估算和预测。通过分析,灰色预测模型具有较高的建模精度,预测方法和结果对非致命武器的经济寿命预测具有很强的实用性。     

临近空间武器对预警探测制导技术的挑战

临近空间进攻武器具有速度快、射程远、机动性强的特点,对未来空天安全构成重大威胁.简要综述了国内外临近空间武器的发展现状、主要特点及特性,包括高超声速巡航导弹和高速滑翔弹头两大主要威胁,从预警探测和探测制导的角度,指出了预警探测制导技术在应对临近空间进攻武器上面临的严峻挑战,提出了对其关键技术和技术途径的几点思考.     

Nuclear Weapons and the Vietnam War

This article analyzes why US leaders did not use nuclear weapons during the Vietnam War. To date, there has been no systematic study of US decision-making on nuclear weapons during this war. This article offers an initial analysis, focusing on the Johnson and Nixon administrations. Although US leaders did not come close to using nuclear weapons in the conflict, nuclear options received more attention than has previously been appreciated. Johnson's advisers raised the issue of nuclear weapons and threats on several occasions, and Henry Kissinger, Nixon's national security adviser, looked into nuclear options to bring the war to an end. Ultimately, however, both administrations privately rejected such options. The conventional explanation for the non-use of nuclear weapons during the Cold War – deterrence – is insufficient to explain the Vietnam case. This article analyzes the role of military, political and normative considerations in restraining US use of nuclear weapons in the Vietnam War. It argues that while military and political considerations, including escalation concerns, are part of the explanation, a taboo against the use of nuclear weapons played a critical role.     

India nuclear weapons: No first use or no full disclosure?

This article argues India is laying the foundation to move away from “no-first-use” (NFU) as its nuclear weapons employment policy. Since the inception of its nuclear weapons program, India has claimed NFU as the centerpiece of its nuclear strategy. But India has a history of developing foundational changes to its nuclear weapons program before such changes actually occur. For example, the infrastructure of India’s nuclear weapons program was already being created in the 1950s under the guise of civilian nuclear power. Similarly, the weaponization of India’s program, which did not officially occur until after the 1998 tests, had its genesis in far earlier decisions. A close examination of trends in India’s nuclear weapons production complex, its delivery systems, and its command and control complex all lead to the conclusion that India is laying the groundwork for more flexible employment options, up to and including first use. This article does not argue such a decision has been taken. Rather, it argues the underpinning is in place to allow for a move to more flexible options, perhaps very quickly, at some point in the future. This could occur during crisis or it could occur incrementally over time.