The Dao of foreign policy: Understanding China’s dual strategy in the South China Sea

In the South China Sea, China neither implements power-maximizing policy nor engages a peaceful approach. Instead, China implements both coercion and cooperation in pursuing its strategic interest in the disputed area. How can we explain China’s paradoxical behavior? This article claims that the best way to explain China’s policy in the South China Sea is to understand the character of dualism in China’s strategic culture. Following constructivist theory that stresses culture, this article argues that Chinese duality approach in the South China Sea is rooted in the philosophy of Daoism. The symbol of Yin-Yang depicts Chinese assertive as well as cooperative behavior in dealing with the South China Sea dispute. Although from a normative perspective Daoism recognizes pacifism and non-violent behavior, the most important feature of Daoism is the assumption that reality consists of two opposing elements that are mutually embedded.     

Land power in the age of joint interdependence: toward a theory of land power for the twenty-first century*

This essay outlines a theory of land power. After explaining the absence of such a theory, the article establishes the modern context for such a theory, specifically within the concept of joint interdependence. The analysis defines key terms and premises behind the theory, to include a definition of land power. The argument then outlines the national elements of power that contribute to a theory of land power. The analysis next applies the theory to the fundamental purposes of military power: defeat, deter, compel, assure, shape and support to the nation. The analysis then tests key definitions, supporting premises, and utility of the theory. The essay argues that historical experience validates the applicability and utility of the theory, and offers a solid basis for extrapolating the validity of the theory into the near future.     

Military autonomy: its origins,limits, and the politico-military dialectic of war

Military officers often oppose political interference in the conduct of war. Political leaders respond by citing Clausewitz’s contention that “war is the continuation of politics with the addition of other means.” Scholarship in security studies and civil-military relations argues that civilians are right to oppose military autonomy because it serves the parochial interests of the military. However, through the dialectical relationship between the violent essence of war and its political nature, Clausewitz provides an alternative explanation for military demands for autonomy. He shows that military and political leaders are prone to an incomplete understanding of war that can undermine strategy and policy.     

线性模型的海基制导系统误差分离方法性能分析

利用传统制导工具系统误差线性回归模型,对Bayes估计、主成分分析以及正则化分析三种改进的分离方法进行了比较,分析了它们在工程应用上的优缺点,给出了实际应用时的限制因素;同时结合海基导弹特有的初始状态误差,设计了整体估计、分段估计以及迭代估计三种估计策略,给出了相应的分离步骤。仿真结果表明,文中给出的三种误差分离方法在不同的评价标准下具有不同的实际应用意义;而在弹道差评价标准以及方差评价标准下,分段估计和迭代估计策略下的误差分离结果要明显好于传统整体估计结果。     

三架固定翼无人机协同编队飞行避障策略

针对无人机编队执行空战任务过程中存在无人机之间以及无人机与障碍物发生碰撞的问题,提出单向网络连接结构的多无人机避障算法和基于人工势场的控制方法,同时应用于无人机编队避障控制。以三架无人机构成的正三角形编队作为控制体,同时以长机的运动轨迹作为期望路径,长机提供僚机飞行信息,僚机接受信息保持编队飞行。多无人机编队发现障碍物到避障完成的过程包括编队集结、松散队形、最终恢复集结正三角形编队。仿真实验结果表明,所提避障控制策略能够确保编队收敛于期望的队形和稳定飞行状态。     

高超声速滑翔飞行器滑翔段初始状态的唯一性和最优性分析

临近空间高超声速滑翔飞行器的弹道特性主要受滑翔段初始状态和飞行器控制律影响。在飞行器控制律确定的情况下,研究了滑翔段初始状态对高超声速滑翔飞行器弹道特性的影响规律。按照滑翔弹道的不同形式,在纵向平衡滑翔条件下,通过理论推导得出飞行器状态变量的解析式,结合平衡滑翔条件分析平衡滑翔弹道滑翔段初始状态的唯一性;在纵向跳跃滑翔条件下,构建弹道性能评价指标,利用群智能算法,寻找弹道性能最优时的滑翔段初始状态。利用单因素敏感性分析方法,分别对两种滑翔弹道的滑翔段初始状态进行敏感性分析,初始状态中初始速度对弹道特性的影响最大。对高超声速滑翔飞行器初始状态唯一性与最优性的分析,可为高超声速滑翔飞行器的弹道设计、弹道跟踪、轨迹预测和轨迹优化提供借鉴。     

典型航天装备试验鉴定总体策略研究

航天装备具有面向任务、科研性强、全系统的技术状态难以固定,以及小子样等特点,在全寿命周期内的试验策略与常规武器装备的差异很大。本文在介绍装备试验鉴定模式改革的基础上,分析了航天装备试验鉴定按照新模式进行的相应调整,重点给出了卫星系统、运载火箭和航天测控装备等典型航天装备的全寿命周期模型,设计了新体制下全寿命周期内的试验阶段和关键时间节点、主要试验类型、决策支持依据、试验方式方法,以及与原试验要求的继承关系等总体策略;同时,鉴于航天装备试验鉴定数据量小等特殊性,给出了有别于常规装备的数据采信原则。该试验鉴定总体策略和数据采信原则可为航天装备试验鉴定顶层设计、组织实施、数据分析和决策支持提供参考。     

基于经济绩效的国防工业市场最优集中度研究

以满足企业利润最大化和社会福利最大化双重效率标准的思想为基础,通过拟合我国国防支出需求函数和国防工业企业的成本函数,对我国国防工业市场最优集中度进行了理论研究,得出最优企业数量的一般表达式,并以我国航空工业上市公司为例,对其市场集中度展开了系统性估算。研究结果表明,我国国防工业产业的最优企业数量可以根据相关数据与拟合出的参数得到一个明确的数值,并且我国国防工业产业的最优市场集中度表现为适度集中,而在特殊情况下表现为完全集中。我国航空工业上市公司的最优企业数量为14家时,能够满足企业利润最大化与市场出清的双重标准,市场集中度达到最优。     

Beyond balancing? Intrastate conflict and US grand strategy

Grand strategic theorists share an historical emphasis on interstate conflict, yet in contrast to the more frequent intrastate conflicts, these represent only 7 of the some 273 US military deployments since 1900. We argue that these intrastate conflicts limit the utility of regional balances of power in mitigating forms of conflict that the US may consider inimical to its national security interests. When considering potential changes to US force posture and grand strategy, American coercive statecraft should be theorised along a broader strategic continuum encompassing the full range of conflict.     

运动视觉平台点目标定位误差分析和平台最优运动轨迹设计

对运动视觉平台点目标定位问题进行了研究,介绍了基于视觉共线方程的目标定位方法,分析了共线方程关于视线约束的实质。在观测视线相关坐标系推导了视线方向角矢量对目标定位误差的影响规律,分析了多观测对定位误差的影响,并基于最小化目标定位误差推导了视觉平台的最优运动轨迹,利用简单明了的分析方法得到了与已有文献优化Fisher信息矩阵方法一致的结论。利用仿真和试验对定位误差和最优轨迹进行了验证,证实了定位误差理论分析和最优运动轨迹设计的正确性。