Statistical equivalency and optimality of simple step‐stress accelerated test plans for the exponential distribution

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is commonly used to obtain reliability information about a product in a timely manner. Several stress loading designs have been proposed and recent research interests have emerged concerning the development of equivalent ALT plans. Step‐stress ALT (SSALT) is one of the most commonly used stress loadings because it usually shortens the test duration and reduces the number of required test units. This article considers two fundamental questions when designing a SSALT and provides formal proofs in answer to each. Namely: (1) can a simple SSALT be designed so that it is equivalent to other stress loading designs? (2) when optimizing a multilevel SSALT, does it degenerate to a simple SSALT plan? The answers to both queries, under certain reasonable model assumptions, are shown to be a qualified YES. In addition, we provide an argument to support the rationale of a common practice in designing a SSALT, that is, setting the higher stress level as high as possible in a SSALT plan. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Bayesian selling problem with partial information

We introduce an optimal stopping problem for selling an asset when the fixed but unknown distribution of successive offers is from one of n possible distributions. The initial probabilities as to which is the true distribution are given and updated in a Bayesian manner as the successive offers are observed. After receiving an offer, the seller has to decide whether to accept the offer or continue to observe the next offer. Each time an offer is observed a fixed cost is incurred. We consider both the cases where recalling a past offer is allowed and where it is not allowed. For each case, a dynamic programming model and some heuristic policies are presented. Using simulation, the performances of the heuristic methods are evaluated and upper bounds on the optimal expected return are obtained. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

舰艇防空火力规划与调度方法研究

根据舰艇防空武器拦截过程的时间连续性和拦截效果的不确定性特点,提出了智能规划和优化调度相结合的舰艇防空计划生成方法。在规划阶段,先用智能规划描述语言PDDL对舰艇防空问题进行建模;针对新的来袭目标或观察的拦截结果,利用智能规划的高效行动推理能力,快速生成可能的备选行动方案;在优化调度阶段,对已生成的备选方案的行动系列进行时间、资源冲突处理,并计算选择出当前最佳拦截方案。与现有的采用离散化处理的武器-目标分配方法相比,该规划与调度过程充分体现了拦截过程的连续性,拦截效果的不确定性,拦截过程中的武器协同,以及最佳拦截时机的选择等,更好地描述了舰艇防空的实际过程。最后,通过蒙特卡罗仿真试验,验证了算法的有效性,为舰艇的自动化防空提供了一种新的解决办法。     

基于Gauss伪谱法的空空导弹最优中制导律设计

研究Gauss伪谱法在空空导弹最优中制导律设计中的应用。建立空空导弹中制导律设计问题最优控制模型,首次提出采用Gauss伪谱法求解最优中制导律设计问题的思路,详细阐述了求解流程,通过仿真算例验证了求解方法的有效性,并同比例导引、打靶法等传统方法进行了对比。仿真结果表明,综合考虑性能指标、计算精度、计算效率等因素,Gauss伪谱法具有明显优势,Gauss伪谱法求解结果和求解效率与配点个数密切相关。研究结果为空空导弹中制导律设计提供理论参考。     

UUV编队协同搜索静止目标的准最优方法

考虑到操作的简单性且实际执行搜索任务时搜索力不是无限可分,将连续空间的搜索问题转换为离散空间的最优搜索问题。通过划分网格,将连续的目标位置分布离散化。根据最优搜索理论,提出了单个无人水下航行器的准最优随机搜索方法,较好地逼近理论最优值。并以此为基础,分析了无人水下航行器编队的3种协同搜索方法:集中最优搜索、分散最大概率搜索和准最优搜索。最后通过实例仿真,得出了编队准最优搜索策略的有效性、优越性和可操作性。此方法将对无人水下航行器编队的战法研究具有参考借鉴意义。     

美国“深绿”计划对指挥控制的影响

“深绿”计划是美国国防部高级研究计划署为满足现代战争对快速决策的需求而提出的.“深绿”计划的目的是将仿真嵌入指挥控制系统,利用仿真支持正在进行的军事行动.通过对深绿体系结构、实现深绿的关键技术以及深绿实施方案的分析,重点研究了深绿计划对指挥控制的影响.该研究力图为我军作战指挥决策支持系统的建设提供方法和技术上的启发及借鉴.     

改进的二进制粒子群算法的传感器优化配置

传感器组合优化问题是设备状态检测系统设计的重要问题.在研究传感器与故障有向图的基础上,提出了传感器优化配置模型;根据传感器组合优化自身特点,从位改变率、惯性权重两个方面对BPSO算法进行了参数分析.结合免疫算法的“亲和度”思想以及非线性惯性权重递减公式,提出了改进的二进制粒子群算法.案例显示,改进的二进制PSO算法提高了算法在整个解空间的搜索能力,加快了收敛速度,能够很好地用于解决传感器优化问题.     

某型发电机可靠性试验系统研究

为了对某型发电机进行可靠性试验,根据试验需求,设计了带能量反馈的试验系统。该系统与发电机输出带纯电阻性负载方案相比,大大节约了试验的耗电量,并利用仿真软件PSCAD/EMTDC建立了试验系统的仿真模型,对系统在不同扰动下的动态特性进行了仿真研究。仿真结果与试验结果相吻合,说明所建试验系统模型的正确性,也得出了该试验系统具有良好的运行稳定性的结论。     

电子时间引信解除保险距离试验研究

通过测量弹丸炮口速度和引信解除保险时间的方法得出电子时间引信远解距离。在介绍某型电子时间引信实现远距离解除保险的方法和机构工作过程的同时,对远解距离进行理论分析,并对试验引信改装的实现方法作了详细说明。在此基础上,进行了电子时间引信解除保险距离测试试验并对试验结果作了分析。     

On optimal system designs in reliability‐economics frameworks

Reliability Economics is a field that can be defined as the collection of all problems in which there is tension between the performance of systems of interest and their cost. Given such a problem, the aim is to resolve the tension through an optimization process that identifies the system which maximizes some appropriate criterion function (e.g. expected lifetime per unit cost). In this paper, we focus on coherent systems of n independent and identically distributed (iid) components and mixtures thereof, and characterize both a system's performance and cost as functions of the system's signature vector (Samaniego, IEEE Trans Reliabil (1985) 69–72). For a given family of criterion functions, a variety of optimality results are obtained for systems of arbitrary order n. Approximations are developed and justified when the underlying component distribution is unknown. Assuming the availability of an auxiliary sample of N component failure times, the asymptotic theory of L‐estimators is adapted for the purpose of establishing the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators of the expected ordered failure times of the n components of the systems under study. These results lead to the identification of ε‐optimal systems relative to the chosen criterion function. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007