舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估研究

从系统分析舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估问题入手,深入研究了协同作战环境下编队空中目标威胁评估的基本过程。在此基础上,针对编队协同决策的特点,建立了基于两层决策的协同作战环境下编队空中目标威胁评估模型,从而提出了舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估方法。最后,通过实例说明了所提方法的有效性。     

Some aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components

In this article, we study aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components. We show that the decreasing likelihood ratio property is closed under the formation of random minima. We also show, by counterexamples, that other aging properties are not closed under the formation of random minima or maxima. Some mistakes in the literature are corrected. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 238–243, 2014     

Some comparisons of residual life of coherent systems with exchangeable components

Most of the research, on the study of the reliability properties of technical systems, assume that the components of the system operate independently. However, in real life situation, it is more reasonable to assume that there is dependency among the components of the system. In this article, we give sufficient conditions based on the signature and the joint distribution of component lifetimes to obtain stochastic ordering results for coherent and mixed systems with exchangeable components. Some stochastic orders on dynamic (or conditional) signature of coherent systems are also provided. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 549–556, 2014     

基于副载波参考波形方法的GNSS双载波环多径抑制技术

为了实现对高阶BOC信号的无模糊和抗多径接收,本文将码相关参考波形的闸波设计思路应用于GNSS双载波环路接收方法的副载波锁相环,通过在副载波锁相环中引入设计的闸波参与信号的相干积分过程,使双载波环法具备抗多径性能,同时该方法并不需要额外引入相关器。本文对该设计方法的理论和具体实现进行了阐述和分析,从副载波多径误差包络和跟踪精度两方面对改进的双载波环路方法性能进行了评估。仿真结果显示,采用的算法与双载波环路法相比可以降低BOC(1, 1)信号81.1%的副载波多径误差包络面积,以及BOC(14, 2)信号75.1%的副载波多径误差包络面积。但是,改进的双载波环路法将带来-6dB的相干积分后载噪比损失,降低跟踪精度。因此,在闸波设计参数设计上,需要谨慎选择以平衡算法的多径抑制和跟踪精度性能。综合来看,该方法适用于解决非弱信号条件下及多径环境下的高阶BOC信号接收问题。     

时间序列分析中的模型定阶策略

模型的定阶问题是时间序列分析(包括参数谱估计、系统辨识,回归分析)研究领域中的一个重要问题。本文对现有的数种模型定阶方法,进行了分析、讨论和归纳,指出了它们所适用的场合及优劣。     

Higher‐order Markov chain models for categorical data sequences*

In this paper we study higher‐order Markov chain models for analyzing categorical data sequences. We propose an efficient estimation method for the model parameters. Data sequences such as DNA and sales demand are used to illustrate the predicting power of our proposed models. In particular, we apply the developed higher‐order Markov chain model to the server logs data. The objective here is to model the users' behavior in accessing information and to predict their behavior in the future. Our tests are based on a realistic web log and our model shows an improvement in prediction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Dual sourcing: Responsive hedging against correlated supply and demand uncertainty

This article analyzes dual sourcing decisions under stochastically dependent supply and demand uncertainty. A manufacturer faces the trade‐off between investing in unreliable but high‐margin offshore supply and in reliable but low‐margin local supply, where the latter allows for production that is responsively contingent on the actual demand and offshore supply conditions. Cost thresholds for both types of supply determine the optimal resource allocation: single offshore sourcing, single responsive sourcing, or dual sourcing. Relying on the concept of concordance orders, we study the effects of correlation between supply and demand uncertainty. Adding offshore supply to the sourcing portfolio becomes more favorable under positive correlation, since offshore supply is likely to satisfy demand when needed. Selecting responsive capacity under correlated supply and demand uncertainty is not as straightforward, yet we establish the managerially relevant conditions under which responsive capacity either gains or loses in importance. Our key results are extended to the broad class of endogenous supply uncertainty developed by Dada et al. [Manufact Serv Operat Mange 9 (2007), 9–32].© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

基于TOPSIS的战区高层反导威胁评估

在分析战区高层反导威胁评估特点的基础上,建立了以来袭TBM发射点、预测落点、射程等为核心的战区高层反导威胁评估模型指标体系并进行了相应的量化,然后利用基于熵值权重确定的TOPSIS理论对模型进行求解。通过实例证明所提出的战区高层反导威胁评估模型和算法的有效性,对研究美军的战区高层反导武器系统具有一定的借鉴意义。     

面向诸元计算精度鉴定的二次抽样试验设计方法

针对诸元计算精度常规试验方法的缺点和不足之处,提出了"二次抽样"的试验设计方法,在一次抽样的基础上,通过对试验结果进行分析,进行第二次有针对性的抽样试验,并采用贝叶斯估计方法,对两次相关联的试验结果进行综合评价。最后采用该方法对某型炮兵指控系统的诸元计算精度进行了检验,证明了该方法的实用性和有效性。与常规试验方法相比,二次抽样法对诸元计算中各变量不同值域的权重进行了重新分配,其计算结果对被试装备的实际性能更具有指向性。     

Weak aging properties for coherent systems with statistically dependent component lifetimes

As a relevant topic in reliability theory, the preservation of aging properties under the formation of various coherent structures contributes to improving system performance through better structure design and more effective system maintenance. The classical research in this line usually focuses upon coherent systems with independent component lifetimes. Recently, some authors discussed the preservation of IFR, NBU, and DMRL in the setting of dependent component lifetimes. This paper further investigates sufficient conditions for coherent systems with dependent component lifetimes to preserve aging properties including NBUC, NBU (2), DMRL, and their dual versions. Some examples are presented to illustrate coherent structures and typical copula functions fulfilling the present sufficient conditions as well.