The Economic Effect of Military Facility Contraction: A Naval Case Study

The global financial turmoil of 2008 has resulted in the curtailment of military expenditure in most western countries. At a sub-regional-level reductions in the level of activity at a major military facility can have significant economic impact. In the light of this, the paper has two objectives: to analyse the impact of the decision to terminate naval shipbuilding at the United Kingdom’s Portsmouth Naval Base; and, for illustrative purposes, to examine the possible economic consequences of further contraction at the facility. In pursuit of these aims, it is necessary to establish the output, income and employment generated by the base using a bespoke input–output model. The methodology employed can, with appropriate adjustments, be utilised in other military or civilian contexts.     

基于故障树分析的航空装备体系结构贡献率评估方法

针对航空装备体系构成复杂的特点,将故障树分析引入航空装备体系结构贡献率评估问题,提出基于故障树分析的评估方法.从作战装备、信息支援装备和保障装备三个方面构建航空装备体系结构,建造航空装备体系结构故障树;采用底事件的关键重要度指标来计算航空装备的体系结构贡献率,建立基于关键重要度的航空装备体系结构贡献率评估模型;以某航空...     

非致命防暴动能弹作战效能评估

提出了非致命防暴动能弹作战效能的评估法,分析了非致命防暴动能弹的技术性能,建立了以非致命性为核心指标的防暴动能弹效能指标体系。采用定性分析与定量分析相结合,将集对分析法应用到了非致命防暴动能弹的效能评估中,对3种防暴动能弹进行了效能评估。为非致命防暴动能弹的研发生产提供了重要的理论支撑。     

多管火箭武器储运发射箱长期储存蠕变性能预测

为探究火箭武器储运发射箱长期储存的蠕变性能,制备复合材料层压板并开展单轴拉伸蠕变试验,获得了单向纤维复合材料主方向的蠕变本构模型参数。采用有限元方法并借助用户自定义材料子程序建立储运发射箱长期储存蠕变的数值分析模型,预测了堆码储存15年后底层发射箱的蠕变变形。以储存后的发射箱作为初始状态建立弹管耦合发射动力学仿真计算模型,进一步分析蠕变对火箭弹发射过程的影响。仿真结果表明:蠕变引起的定向器平行度和发射箱底面平面度的变化均小于技术指标规定值,定向器束的最大残余变形在三维空间内呈马鞍状分布,上、下两行中间位置定向器的变形最大,左、右两列中间位置定向器的变形最小。定向器蠕变变形使得弹管间隙减小,火箭弹在管内运动使弹管之间的动态接触碰撞力增大,离轨速度降低。     

Physical and damping properties of kenaf fibre filled natural rubber/thermoplastic polyurethane composites

The paper presents the investigation of the effect of alkaline treatment of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) on physical and dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) viscoelastic properties of kenaf fibre filled natural rubber (NR)/thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) composites. The treated kenaf fiber, NR and TPU were weighed and proportioned according to the required compositions and were blended using hot mixed Brabender machine. The polymer composites were then fabricated using the hot press to form a sample board. The sample was cut and prepared and water absorption, density, thickness swelling and DMA tests were performed. As far as physical properties are concerned, composites with the highest NR amount of shows the best results, which indicates good fiber bonding adhesion. The polymer composites with the highest amount of TPU shows the highest damping properties at high temperature.     

一起灭火器爆炸案的原因调查

全面调查和分析了某住宅公寓灭火器爆炸事故的事故原因及相关责任,得出造成灭火器爆炸的根本原因是灭火器所充装的ABC干粉存在严重质量问题的认定,并依据相关法律将该案件作为刑事案件移交公安部门。     

Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

What you should know about simulation and derivatives

Derivatives (or gradients) are important for both sensitivity analysis and optimization, and in simulation models, these can often be estimated efficiently using various methods other than brute‐force finite differences. This article briefly summarizes the main approaches and discusses areas in which the approaches can most fruitfully be applied: queueing, inventory, and finance. In finance, the focus is on derivatives of another sort. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Network reliability assessment in a random environment

In this paper we consider networks that consist of components operating under a randomly changing common environment. Our work is motivated by power system networks that are subject to fluctuating weather conditions over time that affect the performance of the network. We develop a general setup for any network that is subject to such environment and present results for network reliability assessment under two repair scenarios. We also present Bayesian analysis of network failure data and illustrate how reliability predictions can be obtained for the network. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 574–591, 2003     

The stochastic single resource service‐provision problem

The service‐provision problem described in this paper comes from an application of distributed processing in telecommunications networks. The objective is to maximize a service provider's profit from offering computational‐based services to customers. The service provider has limited capacity and must choose which of a set of software applications he would like to offer. This can be done dynamically, taking into consideration that demand for the different services is uncertain. The problem is examined in the framework of stochastic integer programming. Approximations and complexity are examined for the case when demand is described by a discrete probability distribution. For the deterministic counterpart, a fully polynomial approximation scheme is known 2 . We show that introduction of stochasticity makes the problem strongly NP‐hard, implying that the existence of such a scheme for the stochastic problem is highly unlikely. For the general case a heuristic with a worst‐case performance ratio that increases in the number of scenarios is presented. Restricting the class of problem instances in a way that many reasonable practical problem instances satisfy allows for the derivation of a heuristic with a constant worst‐case performance ratio. Worst‐case performance analysis of approximation algorithms is classical in the field of combinatorial optimization, but in stochastic programming the authors are not aware of any previous results in this direction. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003