利用验前信息的一种序贯检验方法——序贯验后加权检验方法

序贯验后加权检验方法是Bayes 统计观点在假设检验中的运用。本文提出了该方法的一般理论,给出了当总体的分布参数具有验前信息时的序贯检验方法。文中确定了决策区的划分,同时讨论了序贯截尾方案,给出了检验中可能犯两类错误的概率的上界,并将一般理论应用于产品的可靠性检验和再入飞行器随机落点的精度鉴定。由于运用了验前信息,因此能有效地在少量试验之下进行统计假设检验。本文所提供的方法对于昂贵产品试验结果的统计评定具有普遍意义。     

自适应网格交互多模型算法

研究和设计了一种模型集合自适应方法——自适应网格方法。并将其与交互多模型算法相结合,提出了自适应网格交互多模型(AGIMM)算法,它是一种变结构多模型算法。仿真显示它能有效地提高IMM估计器的费效比。     

Stochastic production capacity: A bane or a boon for quick response supply chains?

The quick response (QR) system that can cope with demand volatility by shortening lead time has been well studied in the literature. Much of the existing literature assumes implicitly or explicitly that the manufacturers under QR can always meet the demand because the production capacity is always sufficient. However, when the order comes with a short lead time under QR, availability of the manufacturer's production capacity is not guaranteed. This motivates us to explore QR in supply chains with stochastic production capacity. Specifically, we study QR in a two-echelon supply chain with Bayesian demand information updating. We consider the situation where the manufacturer's production capacity under QR is uncertain. We first explore how stochastic production capacity affects supply chain decisions and QR implementation. We then incorporate the manufacturer's ability to expand capacity into the model. We explore how the manufacturer determines the optimal capacity expansion decision, and the value of such an ability to the supply chain and its agents. Finally, we extend the model to the two-stage two-ordering case and derive the optimal ordering policy by dynamic programming. We compare the single-ordering and two-ordering cases to generate additional managerial insights about how ordering flexibility affects QR when production capacity is stochastic. We also explore the transparent supply chain and find that our main results still hold.     

混合不确定条件下航空不安全事件量化分析方法

为解决不确定条件下航空不安全事件量化分析的难题,基于随机和模糊理论对影响飞行安全的主客观变量进行了混合不确定描述,将难以用概率表示的主观变量处理成为隶属度λ水平截集上服从均匀分布的随机变量。在此基础上,提出了混合不确定条件下航空安全指标和数值计算方法,所提指标和方法能够简洁、直观、准确地反映航空安全水平。通过航空安全领域普遍采用的Bow-tie模型对轮胎爆破事件安全性指标和隶属度关系进行仿真分析。结果表明:将不确定变量控制在一定隶属度水平,能显著提高航空安全指标。     

带有活动收益不确定特征的成像侦察卫星调度问题

根据区域目标的侦察需求,研究了面向区域目标的多星调度问题。分析了调度问题中活动收益不确定特征,讨论了活动收益的上下界。针对收益不确定的特点,设计了影响力指标用于评估活动对调度方案的影响。基于活动影响力与执行时间设计了一种带局部诱导的禁忌搜索算法,采用分层次的、变评价函数机制引导求解过程趋向多目标优化,在优先提高覆盖率的同时兼顾减少资源消耗。最后,以算例验证了算法的有效性,并通过方案比较说明算法具有较好的寻优能力。     

单输入不确定系统离散变结构控制

研究单输入不确定离散时间系统的变结构控制设计问题.提出一种新形式的离散趋近律,它具有良好的动、静态特性,可有效消除由传统离散趋近律参数引起的抖振.设计扰动预估器以补偿不确定因素的影响,从而提高系统鲁棒性并进一步减弱抖振.仿真结果表明了所提设计方法的有效性.     

模糊群体决策的多方案评价方法

针对多方案评估中因素评价难于精确表示的问题,提出了一种基于模糊语言变量和OWA(OrderedWeightedAveraging)集结算子的群体评价模型与方法,给出各因素的方案两两对比偏好语言评价值,并通过对多决策者、子因素、主因素的三次集结和对模型中α值的恰当选取,可得到方案集的优序排列。该方法可行、有效,可为群体决策提供新的途径。     

两栖装甲车辆车体随机应力统计

为探究某型两栖装甲车辆车体关键部位的疲劳失效原因,测取了不同路面工况下的载荷谱。采用雨流计数法对实测载荷谱进行计数,得到了相应载荷谱中应力循环的均值、幅值计数结果,利用数理统计的方法得到了各种路况的载荷分布模型,为疲劳分析提供了重要的数据并为海上试验及数据分析奠定了基础。雨流法及分布函数参数估计的程序实现,大大提高了随机应力谱的统计处理速度。     

Competition under time‐varying demands and dynamic lot sizing costs

We develop a competitive pricing model which combines the complexity of time‐varying demand and cost functions and that of scale economies arising from dynamic lot sizing costs. Each firm can replenish inventory in each of the T periods into which the planning horizon is partitioned. Fixed as well as variable procurement costs are incurred for each procurement order, along with inventory carrying costs. Each firm adopts, at the beginning of the planning horizon, a (single) price to be employed throughout the horizon. On the basis of each period's system of demand equations, these prices determine a time series of demands for each firm, which needs to service them with an optimal corresponding dynamic lot sizing plan. We establish the existence of a price equilibrium and associated optimal dynamic lotsizing plans, under mild conditions. We also design efficient procedures to compute the equilibrium prices and dynamic lotsizing plans.© 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

大攻角飞行导弹自动驾驶仪反馈线性化设计

针对大攻角空空导弹飞行过程中复杂的非线性空气动力学特性,提出了采用反馈线性化进行控制器设计的方法.在完成导弹俯仰通道的非线性建模的基础上,采用反馈线性化理论对导弹模型进行精确线性化,然后,对线性化后的系统给出了变结构控制系统设计.最后,通过仿真验证了所设计的控制器具有良好的动态性能及较好的工程参考价值.