From Westphalian Failure to Heterarchic Governance in MENA: The Case of Syria

Abstract

The problematic export of the Westphalian system to MENA is examined, taking Syria as exemplar. The export model is juxtaposed to actual non-lineal trajectories, semi-sovereignty and hybrid or failing states. This is manifested in post-uprising Syria in failing statehood, fragmented and overlapping governance, permeable and collapsing borders, the loss of sovereignty to trans-state movements, “competitive regime-building” between the Asad regime and jihadist warlords, and “competitive interventionism” by external powers filling the governance vacuum with their own proxies. The result is heterarchic zones of limited statehood in which state sovereignty is contested by both international (supra-state) penetration and sub-state fragmentation.     

球头弹低速斜侵彻下薄板穿甲破坏机理研究

为探讨球头弹低速斜侵彻下靶板的破坏机理,通过系列弹道试验,对比分析了不同初始速度下弹体的变形,靶板的破坏模式,以及靶板的破口大小及形状;同时采用ANSYS/LS-DYNA对弹靶作用过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明：低速斜侵彻下靶板响应非完全对称,根据受力特征可将靶板划分为四个不同区域,即接触区,弯曲区,拉伸区和对称区;薄板的穿甲破坏可分为四个不同的阶段,即隆起变形,碟形变形,弯曲变形,弹体贯穿阶段;不同初始速度下靶板出现四种典型的穿甲破坏模式,随着初始速度的增加依次为隆起—碟形变形,隆起—碟形变形—拉弯撕裂破坏,隆起—碟形变形—拉弯剪切破坏,隆起—拉弯剪切破坏。斜侵彻下靶板破口形状为椭圆形,随着初始速度的增加,破口长径不断减小,形状由椭圆形向卵形过渡。     

Numerical investigation of the failure mechanism of cubic concrete specimens in SHPB tests

Cylindrical specimens are commonly used in Split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) tests to study the uniaxial dynamic properties of concrete-like materials.In recent years,true tri-axial SHPB equipment has also been developed or is under development to investigate the material dynamic properties under tri-axial impact loads.For such tests,cubic specimens are needed.It is well understood that static material strength obtained from cylinder and cube specimens are different.Conversion factors are obtained and adopted in some guidelines to convert the material strength obtained from the two types of specimens.Previous uniaxial impact tests have also demonstrated that the failure mode and the strain rate effect of cubic specimens are very different from that of cylindrical ones.However,the mechanical background of these findings is unclear.As an extension of the previous laboratory study,this study performs numerical SHPB tests of cubic and cylindrical concrete specimens subjected to uniaxial impact load with the validated numerical model.The stress states of cubic specimens in relation to its failure mode under different strain rates is analyzed and compared with cylindrical specimens.The detailed analyses of the numerical simulation results show that the lateral inertial confinement of the cylindrical specimen is higher than that of the cubic specimen under the same strain rates.For cubic specimen,the corners are more severely damaged because of the lower lateral confinement and the occurrence of the tensile radial stress which is not observed in cylindrical specimens.These results explain why the dynamic material strengths obtained from the two types of specimens are different and are strain rate dependent.Based on the simulation results,an empirical formula of conversion factor as a function of strain rate is proposed,which supplements the traditional conversion factor for quasi-static material strength.It can be used for transforming the dynamic compressive strength from cylinders to cubes obtained from impact tests at different strain rates.     

不同故障模式下的可靠性优化问题

以阀门流体系统为例 ,通过理论分析与数值计算 ,讨论了组成单元具有多个故障模式情形的系统可靠性优化问题 ,对传统的冗余技术作了进一步的发展 ,确立了考虑不同故障模式时可靠性优化的一般模型 ,最后得到了必须根据不同故障模式比率确定配置方式的结论     

钢框架梁柱焊接连接抗震性能试验研究

以梁端腹板的扇形孔形状为主要参数,进行了4个足尺钢框架梁柱焊接节点往复加载下的破坏试验。通过对弯矩—塑性转角和弯矩—累积塑性变形倍率试验曲线对比分析表明,扇形孔是节点变形能力和破坏形式的主要影响因素。改进扇形孔构造是一种有效措施,既可提高节点的抗震性能,又能保持制作工艺与传统节点基本相同。     

Some probability functions in reliability and their applications

There has been much research on the general failure model recently. In the general failure model, when the unit fails at its age t, Type I failure (minor failure) occurs with probability 1 ? p(t) and Type II failure (catastrophic failure) occurs with probability p(t). In the previous research, some specific shapes (constant, non‐decreasing, or bathtub‐shape) on the probability function p(t) are assumed. In this article, general results on some probability functions are obtained and applied to study the shapes of p(t). The results are also applied to determining the optimal inspection and allocation policies in maintenance problems. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

军事欺骗战法分析的数学方法-应用*

针对军事欺骗战法定量分析困难的问题,采用基于贝叶斯统计推断和博弈均衡分析的数学方法,在理论上为解决此难题提供了一种可行的方法.该方法首先定义基本概率矩阵,然后根据贝叶斯原理为交战双方构造用于统计推断的主观概率矩阵,并在由两个主观概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链与实施军事欺骗机会之间建立对应关系,再将此关系推广到基本概率矩阵,即是否存在实施军事欺骗的机会将由基本概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链决定.对理论成果的初步应用表明:通过分析由战场情报信息构成的基本概率矩阵的偏序链,可以科学地运用军事欺骗和反军事欺骗战法.     

On a class of multiple failure mode systems

The primary objective of this work is to introduce and perform a detailed study of a class of multistate reliability structures in which no ordering in the levels of components' performances is necessary. In particular, the present paper develops the basic theory (exact reliability formulae, reliability bounds, asymptotic results) that will make it feasible to investigate systems whose components are allowed to experience m ≥ 2 kinds of failure (failure modes), and their breakdown is described by different families of cut sets in each mode. For illustration purposes, two classical (binary) systems are extended to analogous multiple failure mode structures, and their reliability performance (bounds and asymptotic behavior) is investigated by numerical experimentation. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 167–185, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10007     

引信静态试验模拟动态试验研究

研究了用静态试验评价无线电引信质量性能的方法。分析了静态试验项目、样本量的确定,建立了各组件失效与引信失效的对应关系,提出了通过组件的失效信息计算引信失效率的方法。     

坦克推进系统分段寿命试验统计分析

本文用生存分析方法,对坦克分段寿命试验进行了统计分析,并从理论上说明了坦克分段寿命试验的合理性.