一种基于改进的ROUSTIDA算法的数据补齐方法

针对ROUSTIDA数据补齐方法存在的问题,提出了一种改进的ROUSTIDA数据补齐方法.该方法首先将条件属性与决策属性区分对待,优先填补决策属性值,避免了不一致决策表的产生;然后,在决策属性相同的前提下填补条件属性缺失值,扩展了原算法的使用范围;最后,通过一个实例说明改进算法补齐后的决策表的确能够获得更集中的决策规则...     

数据挖掘故障诊断专家系统

为了及时准确地对防空导弹飞行试验故障进行诊断,克服传统专家系统获取专家知识的瓶颈,立足于防空导弹飞行试验历史数据,利用数据挖掘的方法获得飞行试验故障模式判定决策树,进而得出导弹故障判定规则,形成故障诊断专家知识库,构建防空导弹故障诊断专家系统.这使数据挖掘和专家系统两者的优点得到充分发挥.     

多通道舰空导弹武器系统反导决策模型研究

当前水面舰艇面临着严重的反舰导弹威胁,特别是在饱和攻击的条件下,常规的单通道舰空导弹系统已经不能满足作战的需要。多通道舰空导弹武器系统具有同时引导多枚导弹拦截多批目标的能力,可以充分发挥系统的能力,相应的反导决策在防空作战中起到重要作用,反导决策的正确性和合理性直接影响防空作战效果。在对反导决策过程和制约因素进行分析的基础上,通过0-1决策模型,得到了舰空导弹武器反导的优化决策模型,较好地满足了使用多通道舰空导弹系统对多目标打击决策的合理性和有效性。     

Transient analysis of Markov models of fault‐tolerant systems with deferred repair using split regenerative randomization

The (standard) randomization method is an attractive alternative for the transient analysis of continuous time Markov models. The main advantages of the method are numerical stability, well‐controlled computation error, and ability to specify the computation error in advance. However, the fact that the method can be computationally very expensive limits its applicability. In this paper, we develop a new method called split regenerative randomization, which, having the same good properties as standard randomization, can be significantly more efficient. The method covers reliability‐like models with a particular but quite general structure and requires the selection of a subset of states and a regenerative state satisfying some conditions. For a class of continuous time Markov models, model class C₂, including typical failure/repair reliability‐like models with exponential failure and repair time distributions and deferred repair, natural selections are available for both the subset of states and the regenerative state and, for those natural selections, theoretical results are available assessing the efficiency of the method in terms of “visible” model characteristics. Those results can be used to anticipate when the method can be expected to be competitive. We illustrate the application of the method using a large class C₂ model and show that for models in that class the method can indeed be significantly more efficient than previously available randomization‐based methods. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Optimization and mediated bartering models for ground delay programs

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the airline community within the United States have adopted a new paradigm for air traffic flow management, called Collaborative Decision Making (CDM). A principal goal of CDM is shared decision‐making responsibility between the FAA and airlines, so as to increase airline control over decisions that involve economic tradeoffs. So far, CDM has primarily led to enhancements in the implementation of Ground Delay Programs, by changing procedures for allocating slots to airlines and exchanging slots between airlines. In this paper, we discuss how these procedures may be formalized through appropriately defined optimization models. In addition, we describe how inter‐airline slot exchanges may be viewed as a bartering process, in which each “round” of bartering requires the solution of an optimization problem. We compare the resulting optimization problem with the current procedure for exchanging slots and discuss possibilities for increased decision‐making capabilities by the airlines. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

差分跳频码性能检验研究

差分跳频是一种新的扩展频谱通信技术.在介绍差分跳频基本原理的基础上,将差分跳频的频率跳变过程建模成齐次马尔可夫链.分析了G函数的功能,重点讨论了差分跳频码性能的检验方法,包括不可约性、频隙滞留、均匀性和随机性检验,其中频隙滞留是首次提出应用于差分跳频码性能的检验.这些检验方法对于差分跳频G函数的设计具有一定的指导意义.     

面向决策的一体化建模方法及其在兵力筹划中的应用

在对军事决策问题的主要特点进行分析的基础上,提出从军事概念模型到数学模型再到定性推理模型的一体化建模思想.以空军航空兵遂行直接航空火力支援任务为想定背景,根据EATI模板,利用基于UML的Rose工具依次对想定任务的实体、任务、交互等进行分析;对于兵力筹划中的结构化问题建立了机会约束多目标规划数学模型;对于非结构化问题则构造了推理机,推理机体现了定量与定性相结合的决策分析思想.最后,以一个实例验证文章思路的可行性.     

ARMED NON-STATE ACTORS IN AFRICA AND THE BAN ON ANTI-PERSONNEL LANDMINES

A truly universal ban on anti-personnel mines cannot be realized without engagement of armed non-state actors and armed groups operating outside state control, including rebels and national liberation movements. Events after 9/11 have complicated engagement with organizations that can be classified as ‘terrorists’. Yet, the use of anti-personnel landmines itself can be viewed as an act of terrorism and African leaders have, on various occasions, classified the use of landmines and the presence of unexploded ordnance as engendering insecurity and a serious impediment to development. The success of a total ban ultimately depends upon ensuring that armed non-state actors act in accordance with international humanitarian law. The Geneva Call Deed of Commitment for Adherence to a Total Ban on Anti-Personnel Mines and for Cooperation in Mine Action (DoC) might be described as an alternative instrument to the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention and can serve an important and impartial channel of communication with non-state actors. Already 18 armed groups in Africa have signed the Geneva Call DoC.     

Rebellion,Repression and Welfare

I develop a dynamic model of social conflict whereby manifest grievances of the poor generate the incentive of taking over political power violently. Rebellion can be an equilibrium outcome depending on the level of preexisting inequality between the poor and the ruling elite, the relative military capabilities of the two groups and the destructiveness of conflict. Once a technology of repression is introduced, widespread fear reduces the parameter space for which rebellion is an equilibrium outcome. However, I show that repression-driven peace comes at a cost as it produces a welfare loss to society.     

预防性维修工作组合优化

针对单部件的维修间隔期无法反映系统的维修最佳间隔期这一问题,对装备各部件在各修理级别上的预防性维修任务组合情况进行探索。通过建立费用模型、可用度和风险模型作为决策模型,用以组合某一修理级别各部件的维修工作,得出系统预防性维修间隔期,并结合部队实际优化从系统的角度优化等级维修中的维修工作间隔期,为确定大中小修工作提供科学、合理的理论指导。该算法在区分各修理级别的维修能力的基础上,能较好地对各修理级别的维修工作组合情况进行了优化,实例验证了模型的实用性和有效性。