Estimating reliability of components with increasing failure rate using series system data

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a distribution function with increasing failure rate is derived, based on a collection of series system data. Applications can arise in industries where operating environments make available only such system-level data, due to system configuration or type-II censoring. The estimator can be solved using isotonic regression. For the special case in which systems contain one component, the estimator is equivalent to the restricted maximum likelihood estimator of Marshall and Proschan [9]. The MLE is illustrated using emergency diesel generator failure data from the nuclear industry. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 115–123, 1998     

近地卫星Ka频段数传链路抗雨衰自适应模式设计

针对近地卫星数传时的信道时变性和严重的Ka频段雨衰现象,采用自适应编码调制(Adaptive Coding and Modulation, ACM)技术能够充分利用链路资源,相对于传统的固定编码调制方式,进一步提高链路的数据吞吐量。提出近地卫星Ka频段数传链路ACM模式设计方法,在降雨环境下建立Ka频段数传链路模型,根据链路预算的信道状况确定ACM选用模式;采用基于导频符号的最大似然信噪比估计算法结合移动平均的平滑方法实现信道估计,有效地减小了估计值的波动。仿真结果表明,无论晴天还是雨天,采用提出的卫星数传链路ACM模式设计方法,能够在保证系统可靠性的同时获取较高的数据吞吐量。     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

高超声速滑翔导弹气动参数自适应跟踪建模

针对高超声速滑翔导弹跟踪中状态模型构建问题,研究基于制导变量变化规律的气动参数建模方法。对气动参数进行分析,指出传统建模方法的缺点。在假设制导变量服从一阶时滞过程的前提下,利用线性化的气动系数推导气动参数模型,通过分析不同飞行状态下的模型变式,证明模型对目标机动具有自适应性。对模型中未知参数的取值问题进行讨论,实现模型与飞行状态的自适应匹配。仿真结果表明：当目标发生机动时,所提模型性能明显优于传统模型。同时,在不同滤波器参数条件下的仿真结果进一步证实了模型的有效性。     

针对不同视场辅助信标的无人机目标定位方法

针对无人机在单站测角测距的目标定位过程中受无人机姿态角误差影响较大的问题,提出一种对辅助信标进行探测并与惯性传感器相结合的无人机姿态求解方法。建立基于容积卡尔曼滤波的惯性传感器姿态求解模型,采用梯度下降法对基于辅助信标的无人机位姿参数进行求解,并综合它们的结果对无人机的姿态偏差进行估计和校正,最后完成了不同视场条件下的目标定位和仿真计算。结果表明,所提方法对无人机目标定位精度有明显提高。     

Killing Your Own: Confronting Desertion and Cowardice in the British Army During the Two World Wars

Military units can become to some extent self-governing in war-time battle. At times, they may take the discipline of their soldiers into their own hands and such discipline may be severe. This paper examines incidents in the British military, in both World Wars, where British soldiers were killed by their comrades because they would not fight in the heat of battle. The judicial execution by the military authorities of deserters in the First World War led to much controversy in Britain. It may be much less well-known that in both World Wars there was, on occasion, an extra-judicial practice within the British military of executing soldiers who would not fight in the heat of battle. In such situations ethical dilemmas become very difficult indeed and some of the relevant issues are examined here.     

Understanding China’s goals and strategy in the South China Sea: bringing context to a revisionist systemic challenge – intentions and impact

ABSTRACT

The slow moving conflict in the South China Sea has been characterized by some as “not worth the candle.” China claims the entirety of the South China Sea pursuant to a nine-dash line, the legal impact of which has been limited by international courts. At the same time, China has changed the reality of control over the South China Sea by building a number of fortified islands in the Spratly Islands and elsewhere. The US has either refused to stand up to China's behavior (Obama) or responded unevenly (Trump). This paper examines the impact of China's behaviour on local parties, US interests, and the liberal international system.     

Local ownership as international governmentality: Evidence from the EU mission in the Horn of Africa

ABSTRACT

While some Foucault-inspired studies construe local ownership in international interventions as a form of liberal governmentality that aims to govern through freedom, others lambast it as an illiberal governmentality that is likely to be resisted because it undermines local autonomy. However, we still do not know what is the rationality behind local ownership, how it is being operationalized, and why a principle that aims to govern through freedom ends up curtailing it. I argue that local ownership, echoing the colonial principle of indirect rule, is driven by the rationality of advanced democracies on how best to govern global insecurities at a distance. Consequently, ownership is operationalized as responsibilization for externally designed objectives. This often gives rise to local resistance which undermines international efforts to achieve ownership. I illustrate my arguments with evidence from the EU Mission on Regional Maritime Capacity Building in the Horn of Africa (EUCAP Nestor).     

基于平衡计分卡的武器装备维修绩效评价指标体系构建

武器装备维修是武器装备维修保障的重要内容,加强装备维修绩效评价,建立科学规范的绩效评价指标体系,对深入推进装备维修工作健康发展将发挥积极作用。以平衡计分卡为研究手段,运用"5M1E"分析法,从一个内核和四个维度出发,分析武器装备维修绩效评价的影响因素,据此建立评价指标体系,并应用于装备维修管理实践,为有效提高装备维修保障效益提供有益借鉴。     

考虑扰动引力影响的弹道助推段误差传播解析计算方法

针对地球扰动引力对弹道导弹惯性导航精度影响日益突出这一问题,研究了沿弹道扰动引力的多项式拟合方法,并基于线性系统理论和弹道摄动思想推导了用于求解扰动引力对弹道助推段状态影响的完整解析表达式。同时考虑扰动引力影响与导弹视加速度之间的耦合特性,将扰动引力引起的视加速度偏差视为扰动引力影响的附加补偿项,并进行迭代修正。仿真结果表明:扰动引力拟合残差小于3×10~(-7)m/s~2,考虑耦合项修正的弹道误差传播解析模型计算残差减小为原有方法的1/3,计算时间仅为直接采用弹道积分求差法的1/10。