基于熵权的导弹型号论证方案评价模型

针对导弹型号论证决策中的部分属性信息具有模糊性,给出了一种基于熵权的模糊信息多目标决策方案评估方法。该方法在只有模糊判断矩阵而没有专家权重的情况下,通过多指标的模糊评价矩阵的熵权计算,得到各属性信息提供的有用信息量的程度;再通过各方案与理想点的距离,得出了可信度较高的优选方案。     

‘Fighting for peace’

In Africa, most of the present conflicts are civil, intra-state wars where belligerent groups use guerrilla tactics to achieve various political, economic or ideological objectives. The atrocities and the effect of these on-going wars on innocent civilians, human suffering, poverty and development are beyond comprehension. Not surprisingly, the majority of current peace operations are in Africa, with more than 70 countries contributing forces to these conflict zones. On the continent, South Africa has come to assume a leading role in peace operations and is now a major troop-contributing country to UN and AU missions. In the past 11 years, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) has taken part in no fewer than 14 peace missions. This article provides a brief background of the conflicts in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan, the different United Nations (UN) and African Union (AU) mandates under which peacekeepers had to operate as well as their objectives, and the extent of South Africa's involvement in the various missions. In the last section, the major challenges, that these operations have posed are highlighted.     

准则权重信息不完全的证据推理多属性决策算法

针对准则权重信息不完全情况下的多属性决策问题,提出了一种新的证据推理多属性决策算法,它通过建立基于证据信息熵的决策模型来求解准则的最优权重系数,利用求解得到的权重系数和递归ER算法求出各方案的效用值,进而得到各方案的优劣次序。最后,通过算例分析验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。     

空间预警系统建立导弹目标优先级的多属性决策

空间预警系统在多传感器多目标的情况下需要传感器调度,而建立目标优先级是有效进行传感器调度的第一步。由星载传感器所得图像对目标特征进行估计具有很大的不确定性,直接影响到导弹目标优先级的建立。首先通过作战分析确定出导弹目标的主要属性,采用层次分析法评价属性的权重,然后在不确定的条件下对属性求期望值,使用3种多属性决策方法评价导弹目标的威胁程度,最后取期望值作为导弹目标的威胁评价。正交实验结果表明算法具有很强的实时性和实用性。     

The African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis: conceptual breakthrough or anti-imperialist phantom?

The creation of an African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis (ACIRC) is a sign of Africa's willingness to take its destiny into its own hands. Presented as a reaction to the slowness of the development of the African Standby Force (ASF), it is also a response to some of the ASF's conceptual weaknesses. This decision reflects a wish to establish an instrument better equipped to deal with the challenges Africa is facing. Departing from the (sub)regional logic of the ASF results from a desire to take into account the transnational nature of threats, while its enlarged mandate is meant to offer Africa the capacity to intervene in all kinds of conflicts, including by undertaking peace enforcement activities. But the obstacles on the road towards the actual creation and mobilisation of this capacity should not be underestimated. These include material difficulties, but also political tensions, between ‘small’ and ‘big’ states as well as between the African Union and subregional organisations. The risk then is high that the ACIRC, whose announcement came as a reaction to France's intervention in Mali, ends up joining the ranks of the many ‘anti-imperialist’ phantoms haunting the history of the Organization of African Unity/African Union (OAU/AU). Confronted by events considered ‘neocolonial’ initiatives, African actors have indeed traditionally reacted by launching grand projects that never got off the ground. However, by actually establishing this new instrument, they may also demonstrate that times have definitively changed.     

不确定熵证据合成法在防空兵火力配系评估中的应用

防空火力配系是根据任务、敌情、地形和火器的性能,对参战的各种火器作适当的配置和分工所构成的火力系统,防空火力配系是典型的多属性决策问题,而多属性决策问题中存在着属性评价的不确定性问题,而证据理论是典型的多属性融合理论,它的天生缺陷就是不相容证据合成带来的问题,为此引入基于不确定熵证据合成的多属性决策理论,能够很好地克服上述不足,用来对防空火力配系进行优化,可以解决多目标决策中的信息不完全性,效果良好.     

因素状态值为模糊数的变权综合决策方法

对因素权重为实数、因素状态值为模糊数的多因素不确定性决策问题,由实数型状态变权向量导出模糊数状态变权向量,得出模糊数变权公式,建立模糊数变权综合决策模型,最后给出一个应用模糊数变权综合决策模型的实例.     

论公安边防部队基层决策中的公众参与

公安边防部队基层决策中的公众参与,是指凡涉及公众利益而无需保密的重大决策,基层边防部队在决策的各个环节。都要吸收公众有序参与,并使决策充分反映民意。在国际金融危机和国内转型期条件下,基层边防部队要不断优化公众参与决策的环境,实行决策公开,推行决策听证,发挥网络优势,畅通民意反映渠道,并健全完善回应、考评、监督、纠错、问责等保障机制。实现公众参与决策健康持续进行。     

高速方尾水面舰船兴波问题计算方法研究

将Dawson型兴波阻力计算方法推广用于高速方尾水面舰船兴波问题计算,在计算中同时计入了尾封板0静压力、尾倾与下沉等因素的影响.以两高速方尾水面舰船为例计算了兴波问题,将兴波阻力计算值与剩余阻力模型试验值进行了比较,求出了相应的相关系数.结果表明,本方法可较好地求解高速方尾水面舰船的兴波问题,兴波阻力相关系数可用于修正理论计算结果,以提高计算精度.     

Walking a tightrope: the International Criminal Court and conflict prevention in Africa

Many African countries gained political independence in the 1960s. This era of independence came with promises and great expectations of economic, political and social development. Fifty years later, it is certain that the promises and expectations of independence have not been easily realised. Perennial violent conflicts have continued to ravage many countries in Africa, causing the catastrophic breakdown of law and order. Therefore, one of the major issues in conflict resolution discourse in Africa is how to develop functional mechanisms for the prevention of violent conflicts. This article examines the capacity of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to act as a mechanism for conflict prevention in Africa. Notwithstanding the doubts and uncertainties associated with the impact of law on conflict transformation, this article argues in the main that the ICC contributes to conflict prevention in Africa by expressing global norms of international law, challenging the culture of impunity in some countries, contributing to general deterrence, speedily intervening in some violent conflicts, and contributing to building some records of atrocities by identifying who did what.