Soldiers contra diplomats: Britain’s role in the Zimbabwe/Rhodesia ceasefire (1979–1980) reconsidered

Abstract

This article re-examines part of the literature on Britain’s role in the December 1979 to March 1980 Zimbabwe/Rhodesia ceasefire. The ceasefire ushered in an era of peace after a protracted internal war and it was an integral part of the transition from colonial white minority rule, towards black majority independence. Scholars present Britain’s success in brokering and monitoring the Zimbabwe/Rhodesia ceasefire as the result of its judicious and accordant management of the road to peace. However, this article argues that in fact deep internal divisions plagued the British managers of the ceasefire. Internal divisions centred on authority struggles between diplomats and military actors, conflicting personalities, discordant approaches to and goals in the ceasefire, and inter-institutional rivalry between the Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence. The article concludes that Britain only managed the ceasefire effectively because its military’s independence, political nous, and competence ultimately prevailed over the injudicious views and machinations of diplomats.     

高超声速飞行器俯冲机动最优制导方法

为解决高超声速飞行器俯冲段精确制导与机动突防问题,研究了机动突防最优制导方法。针对零化视线角速率降低突防性能的问题,在俯冲平面及转弯平面内分别设计了正弦形式的视线角参考运动,同时为进一步实现俯冲精确制导,以落速最大为性能指标利用最优控制对其进行跟踪,引入了伪控制量以简化最优制导问题的求解,最后分析了该方法的稳定性及制导性能。以CAV-H为例进行仿真分析,仿真结果表明该方法能够实现机动飞行,且能够高精度地满足终端落角及落点约束,可为高超声速飞行器俯冲段精确制导及机动突防提供参考。     

空气/煤油/水燃气发生器点火特性试验研究

燃气发生器是超燃冲压发动机地面试验系统中的关键设备,为提高系统安全性和经济性设计了空气/煤油/水燃气发生器,在富燃状态下进行了一系列点火试验,试验结果表明：该型燃气发生器,实现可靠点火的余氧系数下限为0.51;水的加入使得化学反应速率和火焰传播速度降低,燃气发生器点火和火焰稳定困难,提高余氧系数可以提高点火可靠性。同时水的加入容易引起燃烧不稳定,通过提高余氧系数可消除低频不稳定燃烧。     

9/11: WHAT DID WE KNOW AND WHEN DID WE KNOW IT?

In February 1998, Osama Bin Laden published a signed statement calling for a fatwa against the United States for its having ‘declared war against God’. As we now know, the fatwa resulted in the unprecedented attack of 9/11. The issue of whether or not 9/11 was in any way predictable culminated in the public debate between Richard Clarke, former CIA Director George Tenet and the White House. This paper examines whether there was any evidence of a structural change in the terrorism data at or after February 1998 but prior to June 2001, controlling for the possibility of other breaks in earlier periods. In doing so, we use the standard Bai–Perron procedure and our sequential importance sampling (SIS) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for identifying an unknown number of breaks at unknown dates. We conclude that sophisticated statistical time‐series analysis would not have predicted 9/11.     

TERRORISM AND TOURISM: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Using a time series method called ‘transfer function’, this paper examines the effect of terrorism on tourism in Turkey. The results indicate that there exists a negative but small impact of terrorism, which is observed within approximately one year. However, terrorist attacks in Turkey have accounted for a reduction of six million foreign tourists over the last nine years. Moreover, the economic cost of terrorism in the tourism industry was more than $700 million in 2006. However, terrorist attacks in continental Europe and America, and an active war involving a neighboring country, had no effects on tourism in Turkey.     

Remaking the military industrial relationship: A French‐American comparison

Defense industrial complexes in leading Cold War nations have downsized and reallocated resources to other productive activities in the 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the experience of two key countries ‐ the US and France. Comparing the two countries, we find similar outcomes in budgetary retrenchment and large firm restructuring but marked differences in the pace of downsizing and diversification among small and medium‐sized firms. We hypothesize that three sets of contextual differences may explain these differences: 1) institutional differences in the way that the State bureaucracies ‐ the Pentagon and the French Délégation générale pour l'armement (DGA) ‐ oversee defense industrial matters, 2) differences in military industry ownership and firm size patterns, and 3) differences in the regional distribution of defense industrial capacity and associated regional policies. In closing, we note that the two countries’ defense industrial complexes are becoming more alike and speculate on the significance of invidious competition and interactions between them. We address briefly the future of French/American arms industrial competition and cooperation, given the trend towards transnational security arrangements and defense industry globalization     

Notes on Cataneo's Scale,Some Gunners' Daggers and a Gunners' Rule

Abstract

Cataneo's scale, published in 1571, relates the weight of shot to the internal muzzle diameter of guns ranging between 0.04–0.21 m. Plots of calculated shot density versus muzzle diameter suggest that diameters of 0.10 m and above apply to iron shot and those below apply to lead and lead/iron composite shot. Similar plots are used to compare Cataneo's scale with other contemporary scales and with scales engraved on the blades of five Italian gunners' daggers dating to around 1650. Variations and errors in the daggers' scales might suggest a symbolic rather than a practical role; nevertheless there is remarkable consistency with Cataneo's scale in the shape of the plots in spite of the considerable length of time after its publication. A simple wooden scale from the Spanish Armada ship La Trinidad Valencera also confirms to Cataneo's general pattern although there appears to be a fundamental error in its mathematical construction.     

界面热阻对金刚石/银复合材料导热率的影响

研究了金刚石／银复合材料的导热率与金刚石的含量、粒度等之间的关系,着重讨论了界面热阻对复合材料导热率的影响。并阐述了金刚石表面镀钛,能有效改善金刚石对银的润湿性,降低界面热阻,从而提高金刚石／银复合材料的导热率。     

陶瓷/薄钢板复合结构靶板抗高速侵彻性能研究

为探讨陶瓷/薄钢板复合结构靶板(ceramic/thin steel targets,CS靶板)的抗高速侵彻机理,通过弹道试验,分析了3 mm厚SiC陶瓷层和0.6 mm厚钢板层的CS靶板的破坏模式和抗侵彻性能,并与面密度基本相同的纯钢板进行了比较。在此基础上,基于能量守恒原理,建立了CS靶板抗高速侵彻的理论预测模型,并与试验结果进行了对比。结果表明,CS靶板中前陶瓷层的存在,使得后钢板层的破坏模式由剪切冲塞转变为花瓣开裂,大大提升了后钢板层的抗侵彻吸能效率,从而使得CS靶板的整体抗侵彻性能高于等面密度的纯钢板,CS靶板的整体抗侵彻效率较等面密度纯钢板提升15%以上;弹体穿透CS靶板后的剩余速度理论预测值与试验结果吻合较好,相对误差均在5%以内,验证了理论模型的合理性和有效性。     

Resistance of grid steel-tube-confined concrete targets against projectile impact: Experimental investigation and analytical engineering model

Steel-tube-confined concrete (STCC) targets are provided with excellent anti-penetration performance over semi-infinite concrete (SIC) targets since the steel tube imposes passive restraint on the in-filled concrete during the penetration process. Grid STCC system with square steel tubes is a potential solution to protective structures. In this paper, experiments of 9-cell grid STCC targets penetrated by 12.7 mm Armor Piercing Projectile (APP) were performed. The influence of side length and thickness of steel tube, steel ratio and impact velocity on anti-penetration performance were taken into account. Additionally, single-cell square STCC targets were also designed and tested for comparison with the 9-cell grid STCC targets. Damage modes and parameters of the tested targets were measured and discussed. Moreover, the stiffness of radial confinement of grid STCC targets is achieved according to the elastic solution of infinite cylindrical shell in Winkler medium. Furthermore, the penetration resistance and depth of penetration (DOP) for grid STCC targets are obtained on the basis of the dynamic finite spherical cavity-expansion (FSCE) models including radial confinement effect. It is shown that the 9-cell grid STCC targets with optimal dimension match of thickness and side length of steel tube can reduce the DOP by about 17 % and 23 % in comparison with the SIC targets and single-cell square STCC targets, respectively, due to both the confinement of square steel tube to concrete in the impacted cell and the additional confinement of the surrounding cells to the impacted cell; the penetration resistance and DOP of the grid and cellular STCC targets with similar steel ratio is close, and thus the grid STCC targets with simpler manufacturing process and excellent in-plane expandability are preferred in engineering practice; moreover, the predicted results of DOP model based on the FSCE models agree well with the tested results with the maximum disparity less than 12 % and the proposed model is more applicable to the grid and cellular STCC targets with high radial confinement.