AFRICA'S TRIPLE TRANSITION

Sub-Saharan Africa has witnessed the end of foreign colonial rule, the rise and fall of autocratic political regimes, and the disappearance of statist command economies. The challenges were to turn populations into coherent nations owing allegiance to the state; to democratise the state structures that govern these populations; and to liberalise the rules that regulate economic transactions. An important source to assess these prospects are the views and attitudes of ordinary Africans. This essay reflects on the original data derived from a crossnational research project. Nine African states were surveyed between 1999 and 2000. An attempt is made to gather some propositions from the analysis of the data. Many present serious challenges to common wisdom about African politics. It appears that the process of nationbuilding has created coherent political communities with high levels of national identity; that democratising the state in Africa builds on existing indigenous demands from ordinary Africans; and that economic liberalisation proceeds in the face of a mixed set of values about market and state.     

Public opinion: A powerful predictor of U.S. defense spending

Public opinion survey responses regarding the desirability of changes in defense spending can be compressed into a single variable, the public opinion balance, which, when accompanied by a control variable measuring the proportion of responses in the “residuum” (no opinion or keep the status quo), permits an accurate prediction of subsequent changes in the rate of change of U.S. defense outlays from the mid‐1960s through the 1980s. This finding cannot be interpreted as a simple case of “the public got what it wanted,” however, because public opinion was not autonomous or spontaneous, and defense decision makers themselves played a central role in shaping public opinion.     

Performance measurement in military operations: information versus incentives

We explore the impact of strategic assessment efforts on military organizations at war. To do so, we construct a model to explore the impact of a principal’s choice among imperfect performance metrics for a military operation. In doing so, the principal must consider both the incentivizing and informational properties of the metric. We show the conditions under which uncertainty regarding the nature of the agent, as well as uncertainty regarding the operational environment, drives a metric choice that induces pathological behavior from the agent. More specifically, a poor metric choice can create an overly optimistic assessment and end up prolonging the conflict. We illustrate the model’s insights in the cases of World War II and the Vietnam War.     

战场要素的认知处理

针对多弹编队飞行时如何判断当前复杂战场环境下的战场态势问题,采用层次分析法、属性识别理论方法和数据融合的方法,研究了实时认知处理战场要素模型问题。首先,对复杂战场要素进行分析,对这些战场要素进行分类;对不同的战场要素分别建立数学模型;然后,采用层次分析法和属性识别理论方法对导弹认知的数据进行评估,得到数据的精度评估等级后,采用数据融合方法对数据进行融合,得到融合后数据,以此对导弹中的数据进行实时更新。最后,将所建立的战场要素模型进行实例化仿真,仿真结果表明该方法的有效性。     

Asymptotic analysis of periodic policies for the inventory routing problem

In this article, a distribution system is studied where the sum of transportation and inventory costs is to be minimized. The inventory holding cost is assumed to be the same for all retailers. A fixed partition (FP) periodic policy is proposed with tight asymptotic worst‐case performance of 3/2 with respect to the best possible policy. This bound cannot be improved in the class of FP periodic policies. In partition‐based PB policies, the retailers are first partitioned into sets and then the sets are grouped in such a way that sets of retailers within a group are served together at selected times. A PB periodic, policy is presented with tight worst‐case asymptotic performance of with respect to the best possible policy. This latter performance improves the worst‐case asymptotic performance of of the previously best known policy for this problem. We also show that the proposed PB periodic policy has the best worst‐case asymptotic performance within the class of PB policies. Finally, practical heuristics inspired by the analyzed policies are designed and tested. The asymptotic worst–case performances of the heuristics are shown to be the same of those of the analyzed policies. Computational results show that the heuristics suggested are less than 6.4% on average from a lower bound on the optimal cost when 50 or more retailers are involved. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 00: 000–000, 2013     

基于平均可工作概率的星间链路整网抗干扰性能评估方法

导航战条件下的全系统自主导航运行是卫星导航系统星间链路建设的重要目标之一。对星间链路在导航战情况下的工作性能进行准确评估具有非常重要的意义。星间链路的整网抗干扰性能与单星抗干扰能力、星间信号体制、建链策略、网络体制等多种因素均有关系,比较复杂,从而为其准确评估带来很大困难。为准确评估导航战条件下星间链路的整网抗干扰性能,对影响星间链路整网抗干扰性能的各种因素进行分析,并在此基础上对整网抗干扰性能评估场景进行建模设计。提出了以干扰场景遍历条件下的平均可工作概率为指标的星间链路抗干扰性能评估方法,定义了可用率评估指标体系,从而使准确、定量评估星间链路整网抗干扰性能成为可能。     

基于BER和CTMC的航天器发射组织过程可靠度模型

在航天器发射工程中,存在组织过程可靠性评估难以量化的问题。基于航天器发射组织过程的时间特性呈现多个子过程并发执行且子过程具有Markov性和齐次性的特点,使用连续时间Markov链(CTMC)建立多吸收态的组织过程可靠度模型,利用互模拟等价关系(BER)简化组织过程的状态空间,并进一步给出各种状态转移率和组织过程可靠度计算方法。最后,通过数据分析说明模型在航天器发射工程进度计划评估中的作用和意义。     

卫星导航接收机中积分清零器的性能分析

为了使跟踪环路得到最高的输入信噪比,卫星导航接收机在时延估计时应使用匹配滤波器。但出于节省硬件资源的考虑,卫星导航接收机通常采用积分清零器完成相关运算。然而积分清零器相对于匹配滤波器存在性能损耗,对此目前尚无量化的结论。本文推导出积分清零器性能损耗的解析表达式,并使用Monte Carlo仿真的方法验证结论的正确性。理论和仿真结果表明当采样率为2倍的前端带宽时,积分清零器相比匹配滤波存在约0.44dB的损耗,当采样率提高到4倍信号带宽时,积分清零器的性能损耗几乎可以忽略。该结论对卫星导航接收机的设计具有重要的意义。     

运动模糊图像的运动模糊方向鉴别

曝光瞬间造成图像模糊的运动通常作为直线运动近似处理,若能找出模糊图像的运动模糊方向,并将之旋转到水平轴,则二维问题可简化为一维来处理,大大简化由模糊图像估计出运动模糊点扩散函数以及图像恢复的过程,并为图像恢复的并行计算创造有利条件。由于运动模糊降低了运动方向上图像的高频成分,沿着运动方向实施高通滤波(方向微分),可保证微分图像灰度值(绝对值)之和最小。基于此,本文利用双线性插值的方法,固定并适当选取方向微分的微元大小,构造出3×3方向微分乘子,得到了高效高精度的自动鉴别运动模糊方向的新方法,并通过数值实验进行了验证。     

防空旅(团)战斗保障体系效能评估模型

防空旅(团)战斗保障体系的效能是形成良好防空作战能力的关键因素之一,结合防空旅(团)的实际情况,建立了防空旅(团)战斗保障体系的效能指标体系,应用AHP法(层次分析法)确立了各因素的权重,给定了防空旅(团)战斗保障体系效能的评价指标,采用模糊综合评判,建立了二级的评估模型,实现了对防空旅(团)战斗保障体系效能的量化评判模型,并通过实例分析证明了该方法的可行性。