Corporate performance and military production in South Africa

With the end of the Cold War and apartheid, a process of demilitarisation and dramatic cuts in military spending has marked the transition to democracy in South Africa. Between 1989 and 1997 the South African defence budget was cut by more than 50% in real terms, with most of the cuts coming from the procurement budget, which was cut by nearly 70% in real terms during the same period. These cuts have had a significant impact on the country's defence industrial base. However, there has been surprisingly little research on the changes to defence companies that have taken place since the late 1980s. This paper makes a start at rectifying that deficiency by providing an analysis of the restructuring of the major defence‐dependent companies over the period 1988–97. It uses a number of financial ratios and other measures of corporate performance to compare their experience with non‐defence companies in the rest of the South African economy during the same period.     

基于转速分析的柴油机加速性能和气缸气密性的评价方法

对不同使用摩托小时的坦克柴油机的加速、减速时间进行检测和分析,利用Bayes Bootstrap模拟统计方法对转速特征值进行处理,获得了更准确的特征分布．采用动态聚类方法对样本特征进行分类,实现了对柴油机加速性能和气缸气密性的等级评价．     

基于主成分分析的储运过程管道堵塞故障检测

针对现代储运过程典型的管道堵塞故障,分析了其对过程监控参数的影响;采用基于主成分分析的故障检测方法,构建了故障检测流程和检测模型;以储运过程典型仿真系统为研究对象,建立了主成分模型;通过模拟不同程度的管道堵塞故障,进行了管道堵塞故障检测的仿真应用研究,获得了管道堵塞故障统计量控制图.实验结果表明了基于主成分分析的故障检测方法的有效性和正确性.     

火力作战目标决策分析

为满足火力作战多样化的任务需求,结合对火力作战行动有效作用空间的具体解析,对其目标决策进行了深入的分析,在把握时代特征的同时,较为系统地总结出火力作战目标决策的新要求、新方法和新流程,为信息化条件下组织筹划火力作战提供建设性理论参考。     

Two novel critical shock models based on Markov renewal processes

In this paper, we investigate systems subject to random shocks that are classified into critical and noncritical categories, and develop two novel critical shock models. Classical extreme shock models and run shock models are special cases of our developed models. The system fails when the total number of critical shocks reaches a predetermined threshold, or when the system stays in an environment that induces critical shocks for a preset threshold time, corresponding to failure mechanisms of the developed two critical shock models respectively. Markov renewal processes are employed to capture the magnitude and interarrival time dependency of environment-induced shocks. Explicit formulas for systems under the two critical shock models are derived, including the reliability function, the mean time to failure and so on. Furthermore, the two critical shock models are extended to the random threshold case and the integrated case where formulas of the reliability indexes of the systems are provided. Finally, a case study of a lithium-ion battery system is conducted to illustrate the proposed models and the obtained results.     

无人机飞行训练资源配置效率的AHP-Arena综合评价方法

为降低传统层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)赋权过程主观片面性影响,提出了一种综合AHP与Arena仿真建模技术的无人机训练资源配置效率评价方法。基于飞行训练流程分析,确定了训练资源配置效率影响因素和效率评价指标,建立了层次型综合评价体系,概括了AHP-Arena综合评价步骤。利用Arena建模软件构建训练流程动态仿真系统并验证有效性,采用单变量数值仿真法、均方差决策法完成了影响因素客观赋权,通过线性加权综合法得出综合评价系数,实现资源配置效率评价与方案优选。实例应用说明了该方法的有效性,同时,该方法可推广至其他类似的训练过程中,亦可为其他多因素、多指标评价决策过程提供借鉴。     

Burning characteristics of high density foamed GAP/CL-20 propellants

The monolithic foamed propellants with high densities were prepared by casting and two-step foaming processes. Glycidyl azide polymer (GAP) and isocyanate were used as the binder system and 2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitro-2,4,6,8,10,12-hexaazaisowurtzitane (HNIW, CL-20) was employed as the energetic component. The newly designed formulation containing 60 % CL-20 produced a force constant of 1077 J/g and low flame temperature of 2817 K. Two foamed propellants with densities of 1.32 g/cm³ and 1.53 g/cm³ were fabricated by a confined foaming process and examined by closed bomb tests. The results revealed that porosity significantly affects burning performance. A size effect on combustion behaviors was observed for the foamed propellant with 5.56 % porosity, and a double-hump progressive dynamic vivacity curve was obtained. At last, the 30 mm gun test was carried out to demonstrate the interior ballistic performance, and the muzzle velocity increased by 120 m/s at the same maximum chamber pressure when monolithic propellant was added in the charge.     

试论性能化防火设计在消防监督工作中的局限性——以某商业综合体为例

近年来,超大体量建设工程大多通过性能化防火设计方法解决超规范设计的问题,虽然性能化防火设计在理论、模拟计算和分析论证上满足设定安全目标,但设计评估过程忽视我国国情、社会环境影响、公民素质及安全管理水平等实际情况,过分依赖后期管理,如处理不当,极易产生新的消防安全隐患.以某商业综合体为例,分析性能化防火设计的建筑物在实际消防监督工作中的局限性,旨在提醒各级消防监管部门、性能化设计评估单位、评审专家充分认识外部环境对性能化设计方案的影响,使性能化设计更加符合实际.     

新型双向流量计流固参数特性仿真及试验

导磁体小球的受力平衡特性直接影响到新型双向流量计的测量精度。为了研究导磁体小球在同轴环形轨道中运行的平衡性及流体密度和导磁体几何参数对其运动平衡性的影响,首先通过理论分析了同轴环面流道内导磁体小球在旋转轨道内的运动平衡性条件并建立了流固耦合模型,然后采用 Ansys workbench 中的最优化算法根据小球平衡条件进行小球运动平衡特性仿真,再根据样机进行小球平衡性实验研究,最后进行了被测液体密度变化和小球半径变化对小球运动平衡性影响的仿真分析。结果表明：小球运行平衡转速随流体密度增大而增大,也随小球半径的增大而增大。     

相对静止气氛下硼颗粒着火过程

针对相对静止气氛下单颗粒硼的着火过程展开了系统研究,考虑硼颗粒周围径向气相流动以及硼颗粒与周围环境间的传热和传质过程,建立了一维硼颗粒着火模型。分析了硼颗粒在实现着火和未能实现着火两种典型情形下的颗粒相、气相组分参数以及颗粒外表面上Stefan流的变化规律,并对其成因展开了分析。研究表明,在实现着火和未能实现着火两种典型情形下,硼颗粒外表面的Stefan流都会经历先由周围空间流向颗粒表面,而后变为由颗粒表面流向周围空间的过程;考虑颗粒外表面处气相Stefan流作用后,硼颗粒的着火延迟时间减少,且压力越大,影响越大。